US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC he expects tariff revenues under President Trump to exceed his earlier $300 billion estimate, with the money going to pay down the federal debt rather than rebate checks for Americans.

"I've been saying that tariff revenue could be $300 billion this year. I'm going to have to revise that up substantially," Bessent said. "We're going to bring down the deficit to GDP. We'll start paying down the debt, and then at that point that can be used as an offset to the American people."

In other news, The S&P Global Ratings affirmed the US's AA+ long-term credit rating with a stable outlook on Monday, saying tariff revenues will help offset the fiscal blow from President Trump's recent tax and spending bill.

The agency's view comes despite Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have rattled markets and strained trade ties.

Meanwhile, Brazil submitted its formal response to a US trade investigation, rejecting the allegations while challenging the probe's legitimacy.

The investigation, launched in July under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, will examine whether Brazil's digital trade and tariff policies unfairly harm US businesses, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said.

Brazil's finance minister Fernando Haddad said the country has hit an impasse with the US over tariffs, adding that resolving the dispute will depend on Washington's willingness to engage.

Earlier this month, Trump unveiled "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of US trade partners (which you can see in the graphic below).

The next negotiations to watch are Canada, Mexico, and China in the coming months.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world.

Reuters reports:

The trade deal between the US and the EU is close to the baseline assumed by the European Central Bank, but uncertainty persists in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday.

The EU accepted 15% tariffs on most items in the deal agreed last month, averting an all-out trade war and providing businesses greater clarity, even if the new barriers slow economic growth.

\\"The trade deal establishes an effective average tariff estimated to lie between 12% and 16% for U.S. imports of euro area goods,\\" Lagarde said in Geneva.

\\"This effective average tariff is somewhat higher than - but still close to - the assumptions used in our baseline projections last June,\\" she said. \\"The outcome of the trade deal is well below the severe scenario for U.S. tariffs of over 20%.\\"

Read more here.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he expects to see a big jump in revenues due to tariffs imposed my President Trump. Bessent said the money would be used to start paying down the federal debt and not to give rebates back to Americans.

Bessent, who spoke in an interview on CNBC,said he expected to revise his earlier estimate of $300 billion in revenues from tariffs, but declined to be specific on what he thought the new amount would be.

Reuters reports;

Bessent said he had not spoken with Trump about the idea of using funds from the tariffs to create a dividend for Americans, but stressed that both of them were \\"laser-focused\\" on paying down the debt.

\\"I've been saying that tariff revenue could be $300 billion this year. I'm going to have to revise that up substantially,\\" Bessent said. \\"We're going to bring down the deficit to GDP. We'll start paying down the debt, and then at that point that can be used as an offset to the American people.\\"

The US economy could return to the \\"good, low-inflationary growth\\" of the 1990s, Bessent said, but he blamed higher interest rates for problems plaguing some pockets of the economy, singling out housing and lower-income households with high credit card debt.

Read more here.

Copper prices (HG=F) declined 1% on Tuesday, but analysts cautioned that consumers could still see higher costs for wire and cable as firms have more pricing power amid a new tariff environment.

Bloomberg reports:

Major US producers of electrical wire are raising prices just weeks after a surprise decision by President Donald Trump to exempt the most basic copper imports from tariffs, suggesting that American consumers may end up paying more even after metal prices plunged.

Southwire Co. LLC, one of the largest makers of copper wire and cable in the US, and Cerro Wire LLC, a wiremaker owned by Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in recent days announced price increases of 5% across a range of copper wire products, according to a Bloomberg calculation based on their published price sheets.

The move shows how a small group of low-profile companies that own US copper-processing plants are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of Trump’s shock tariff reprieve.

Read more here.

President Trump surprised the logistics industry on Friday by expanding steel and aluminum tariffs to over 400 consumer goods, including motorcycles, baby products and tableware. US customs brokers and importers failed to get much notice and the changes took effect Monday, applying to goods already in transit.

Bloomberg News reports:

“We’ve had a lot of these 11th-hour implementations throughout 2025, this one in particular impacts every single client I have to an enormous degree,” Michigan-based customs broker Shannon Bryant said in an interview.

“Earlier announcements at least had some in-transit exemptions so at least importers could make reasonable buying decisions,” said Bryant, president of trade compliance advisory service, Trade IQ. “This one was unique in that way — it’s very much a ‘gotcha.’”

The new tariff inclusion list was posted by the Customs and Border Protection agency just as many were leaving for the weekend and appeared in the Federal Register on Tuesday, creating fresh headaches for trade professionals. Official guidance has been muddled, especially for goods already on their way to the US, and it’s unclear whether the metals levies stack on top of country-by-country tariffs.

Having weathered six months of Trump’s trade war and a pandemic that triggered mass supply disruptions, it’s hard to rattle the freight carriers, cargo owners and middlemen that keep cross-border commerce moving. But the scope and implementation speed of this latest notice took many by surprise.

Read more here.

In the next 36 hours President Trump will send three Aegis guided-missile destroyers to waters off Venezuela to address what Washington sees as a threat from drug cartels.

The news, which was reported in Reuters, shows how the Trump administration are willing to use military force against Latin American drug cartels. Trump has placed pressure on Mexico to crack down on criminal organizations and end fentanyl trafficking. Another method that Trump is using is steep tariffs on goods.

Bloomberg News reports:

The ships are the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and USS Sampson, Reuters said, citing the people.

Along with 4,000 sailors and Marines in the southern Caribbean region, several P-8 spy planes, warships and at least one attack submarine will be deployed, a separate US official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

The personnel and military assets would operate in international airspace and waters for several months, the official told Reuters. Besides intelligence and surveillance operations, the naval assets could be used to launch targeted strikes, the report said.

Venezuela’s communications ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

President Nicolas Maduro, speaking at an event with political allies, said on Monday evening that his government defends sovereign territory and no one would touch the nation’s land, state news agency AVN reported. Maduro did not mention the US or the Reuters report.

Read more here.

S&P Global Ratings on Monday affirmed the US's AA+ long-term rating with a stable outlook, saying tariff revenues will help offset costs from President Trump's recent tax and spending bill.

Bloomberg News reports:

The decision offers a glimmer of good news for Trump, who has pushed back against arguments that his historic program of tariffs will damage the US economy. Although the S&P analysts didn’t contradict that view, they stressed that as Trump embarks on a bold program of tax cuts and spending, tariffs will help soften the blow.

“Amid the rise in effective tariff rates, we expect meaningful tariff revenue to generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes that might otherwise be associated with the recent fiscal legislation, which contains both cuts and increases in tax and spending,” wrote analysts including Lisa Schineller in a note.

S&P’s views matter for investors in the world’s biggest bond market, which has been plagued by persistent questions over the fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped above 5% in May as tariff fears and Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax bill roiled global markets.

Buy America

Whether tariffs will give the US a meaningful revenue boost is a subject of debate among economists, who point to an apparent contradiction at the heart of Trump’s approach: Tariff revenues rely on trade, but Trump has also attempted to pull production back to the US and encourage consumers to buy American-made products — moves that would undercut future levy receipts.

Read more here.

Brazil has rejected a US trade investigation launched in July under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which seeks to determine whether its trade and tariff policies unfairly restrict American businesses.

In a formal response submitted Monday, Brazil dismissed the allegations and challenged the legitimacy of the probe.

Reuters reports:

While calling for \\"constructive dialogue,\\" the Brazilian government stated that it does not recognize Washington's authority to launch the unilateral investigation.

This action adds to growing friction between the two countries, including 50% tariffs imposed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on imports of Brazilian goods and U.S. sanctions targeting a Brazilian Supreme Court justice.

In its 91-page response, Brazil refuted U.S. arguments concerning its trade practices, including its ethanol market and the popular digital payment system, Pix. The government argued Brazil's acts, policies and practices are not unreasonable, discriminatory or burdensome to U.S. commerce.

Read more here.

The Financial Times reports:

Brazil has reached an impasse with the US over the record tariffs it has imposed on the South American nation, its finance minister Fernando Haddad has said, insisting a solution depends more on Washington’s willingness to resolve the issue.

The US imposed 50 per cent tariffs on most Brazilian exports after President Donald Trump accused the country of conducting a “witch-hunt” against his ally, far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, and demanded his supreme court trial be halted.

“The US is trying to impose on Brazil a solution which is constitutionally impossible,” Haddad said in an interview at an FT Live-Times Brasil/CNBC conference in São Paulo. “An impasse has been reached, it’s a request which cannot be fulfilled.”

Read more here.

Nissan’s (NSANY) Infiniti brand just unveiled its latest creation, the QX65 midsize crossover SUV, at Monterey Car Week.

The launch is part of a product renaissance at the Japanese automaker, which has been plagued with other headaches, such as tariffs.

Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports from Carmel, Calif., that the QX65 will be built in the US, which Infiniti’s US head, Tiago Castro, said was “very important” to increase its US footprint.

While Japan has a preliminary deal in place for 15% tariffs, cars imported from Canada and Mexico still have a 25% auto sector tariff tacked on. Signing a tariff deal with Japan is immensely helpful, as the QX80 SUV that’s in demand is built in Japan.

“The customers are reacting very well, and we need to deliver the vehicle” and not stop, Castro said.

Read more here.

Germany said on Monday the US must first implement the agreed lower tariffs on European-made cars before a broader trade deal can be finalized.

Reuters reports:

\\"In particular, car tariffs must be reduced quickly as agreed. We are also aware of the considerable burden on the export-orientated economy. ... Our role here is to continue to fully support the European Commission in this process,\\" a German government spokesman said in a press conference.

Read more here.

The holiday season is fast approaching and US shoppers will now face fewer choices for fake Christmas trees and decorations. The price of these items has also gone up due to tariffs on Chinese imports as retailers scale back orders.

Reuters reports:

A 90-day extension to a tariff reprieve - agreed to by Washington and Beijing on August 11 - will allow retailers to rush in some last-minute shipments, but most holiday purchases are already done. Retailers typically import seasonal goods in advance because many products need six-month lead times.

\\"We're going to have a lower supply year,\\" said Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company, a New Jersey-based artificial tree importer supplying Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's and Amazon.

The company, which sources roughly half its trees from China and the rest from Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, will hike prices by 10% to 20% on its Carolina pine, Nordic spruce, and Dunhill fir trees, Butler said.

Read more here.

Bloomberg News reports:

China’s exports of rare earth products — including magnets — extended their recovery in July, months after Beijing threatened a disruptive global shortage by crimping supplies to fight a trade clash with US President Donald Trump.

Shipments jumped last month to reach their highest since January, well before China leveraged its dominance of rare earths to hit back at Trump’s punitive tariffs. Beijing agreed to resume flows to the US as part of a trade truce with Washington.

Data released Monday covers rare earth products, a category typically dominated by so-called permanent magnets. Volumes sold overseas rose 69% to 6,422 tons in July, according to Bloomberg News calculations.

Read more here.

The EU is pushing back against US efforts to challenge its digital rules as both sides work to finalize a delayed trade statement, the FT reported.

Disputes over \\"non-tariff barriers,\\" which Washington says include the EU's Digital Services Act, have stalled the announcement. The statement was expected soon after European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump unveiled a tariff deal in Scotland on July 27.

EU officials said the US wants room for concession on the act, but Brussels has called the rules a red line.

The FT reports:

But a US official said: “We continue to address digital trade barriers in conversations with our trading partners and the EU agreed to address these barriers when our initial agreement was struck.”

The commission had also expected Trump to sign an executive order lowering tariffs on EU cars exported to the US from 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent by August 15, but a US official indicated that this would not happen until the joint statement was agreed.

“Actions that adjust any tariff rate, such as Section 232 tariffs [which apply to cars] will follow the finalisation of joint statements with trading partners that we have reached agreements with,” the US official said.

Read more here.

Reuters reports:

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India's purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine and had to stop.

New Delhi was \\"now cozying up to both Russia and China,\\" Navarro wrote in an opinion piece published in the Financial Times on Monday.

\\"If India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the U.S., it needs to start acting like one.\\"

India's Foreign Ministry has previously said the country is being unfairly singled out for buying Russian oil while the United States and European Union continue to purchase goods from Russia.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods earlier this month, citing New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil. The move will take total tariffs on imports from India to 50%.

\\"India acts as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs,\\" Navarro wrote.

Read more here.

US trade partners that worked out exemptions to President Trump's tariffs — like the UK's deal to reduce tariffs on its steel to zero — are still waiting for the agreements to be finalized months later, Bloomberg reports, and are growing frustrated.

“Concern is growing that finalizing the deal on steel has fallen down the priority list both for the UK and US governments,” [UK steel lobbyist Peter] Brennan said last week. “The will to close the deal may well be faltering on both sides.”

Frustration and economic losses like those in the UK are growing in Japan, the European Union and South Korea. Those three made similar announcements over the past month: that Washington granted them leniency on auto exports in the haggling over the level of Trump’s across-the-board tariffs that took effect Aug. 7.

But for the trio of car export powerhouses, which unlike the UK face a 50% duty on their steel and aluminum, the wait for Trump’s concession continues while an American levy justified on national security grounds on imported Toyotas, BMWs, Hyundais and others remains at a crippling 25%.

“We’re continuing to see damage — the bleeding hasn’t stopped,” Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said Friday in a reference to the country’s car industry. “We want the US to sign the executive order as soon as possible.”

Read more here.

(Bloomberg) — Republican Representative Zach Nunn is making an Iowa State Fair video about President Donald Trump’s tax law, shot on a John Deere tractor under the blazing August sun.

In it, Nunn, one of the nation’s most vulnerable incumbents, talks to constituent Sarah Curry about how the expanded child tax credit will help with the cost of one child’s speech therapy. Nunn is also planning to use the state fair as the backdrop for more videos selling the bill’s provisions temporarily cutting taxes on tips and overtime.

Economic issues — namely, Trump’s tax package and his tariff war with countries that buy much of Iowa’s agricultural products — will be front and center in Nunn’s race, and he’s eager to get a jumpstart defining the issues. So, too, are Democrats, who see Iowa’s two swing districts as must-wins in their push to take back the House majority.

Democrat Jennifer Konfrst, who is working to unseat Nunn, said she approaches Iowans at the fair asking them what keeps them up at night and the answer is usually “costs.”

Read more here.

Several major retailers will report earnings this week, which may give a first glimpse into how President Trump's tariffs have affected their bottom lines. The list includes Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe's Companies (LOW) TJ Maxx parent TJX Companies (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST).

The Trump administration has urged retailers not to raise prices for consumers to offset the tariffs' impact, with a particular focus on Walmart, The Street reminds us:

The big issue for Walmart will be how CEO Doug McMillion discusses the Administration's tariffs after the retail giant announces earnings before Thursday's open,.

At Walmart's first-quarter earnings call in May, McMillon warned that \\"higher tariffs will result in higher prices.\\" He couldn't be more specific. Except to say that tariffs should not affect prices of goods the company buys from domestic vendors.

President Trump wrote on Truth Social a few days later, \\"Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain.\\"

The question will come up on Walmart's call as well as all the earnings call this week.

Read more here.

Economist Justin Begley of Moody's Analytics tells USA Today that President Trump’s economic policies won't cause a recession or stagflation, but will likely slow growth and push up inflation. The economy isn't in stagflation yet, Begley said, \\"but it's edging that way,\\" he adds:

Consumer price increases generally have eased substantially after a pandemic-related spike but recently edged higher, in part because of Trump's sweeping import levies.

His policies are imposing countervailing forces on the economy. Tax cuts and increased spending on border security and defense are set to juice growth. But those positive catalysts are expected to be more than offset by the tariffs, a historic immigration crackdown, layoffs of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and big cuts to social services programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, Begley said.

During Trump’s presidential race against former Vice President Kamala Harris last year, Moody’s, among other research firms, predicted Trump’s economic blueprint would spark a recession by mid-2025. Moody’s has updated its forecast in part because the contours of his plan recently have become more clearly defined, Begley said.

“We have a better view where things are going,” he said.

Read more here.

(Reuters) -The Trump administration widened the reach of its 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by adding hundreds of derivative products to the list of goods subject to the levies.

In a Federal Register notice late on Friday, the Commerce Department said the Bureau of Industry and Security was adding 407 product codes to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States that identify the goods to be hit with the additional duties on the steel and aluminum content of those products.

The non-steel and non-aluminum content will be subject to the tariff rates President Donald Trump has imposed on the goods originating from specific countries, the notice said.

The levies on the goods on the expanded list go into effect on August 18.

Read more here.

Inflation expectations rose from July to August, indicating that consumers remain uncertain about President Trump's trade policies.

Year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 4.9% from 4.5% last month, according to the University of Michigan's survey of consumers. Long-run inflation expectations also rose to 3.9% in August from 3.4% in July.

\\"Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused,\\" Joanne Hsu, the university's Surveys of Consumers director, wrote. \\"However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.\\"

Consumer sentiment also deteriorated month over month, falling for the first time in four months. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 from 61.7 a month ago.

Read more here.