How much can Nashville area taxpayers expect to save under Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' tax cuts? Analysis shows who will save the most
Middle Tennessee residents are among the Tennesseans set to experience the most financial relief by tax cuts introduced under President Donald Trump's \\"Big Beautiful Bill.\\"
Signed into law on July 4, the legislation marks the most significant overhaul of federal tax policy since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which lowered average tax burdens across income levels and temporarily streamlined the filing process through structural reforms, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation.
The new bill not only makes the 2017 tax cuts permanent but also introduces additional breaks, including deductions on tips and overtime pay, tax relief for seniors and an expanded child-care tax credit.
However, the legislation also includes steep cuts to social spending, specifically across programs like food assistance and Medicaid which could lead to as many as 7.6 million people losing health insurance over the next ten years, USA TODAY reports.
Nationwide, individual taxpayers will see an average tax cut of $3,752 in 2026, the Tax Foundation reported. That figure is estimated to drop to $2,505 by 2030 as some provisions, like deductions for tips and overtime, expire, but is projected to rise again to $3,301 in 2035 due to inflation increasing the nominal value of the permanent cuts.
Here's what to know in Nashville and Middle Tennessee.
According to the foundation's analysis, the legislation will reduce federal taxes on average for individual taxpayers in every state.
Taxpayers in Wyoming ($5,375), Washington ($5,372), and Massachusetts ($5,139) will see the largest average tax cuts in 2026, while taxpayers in West Virginia ($2,503) and Mississippi ($2,401) will see the smallest average tax cuts.
At the county level, the largest average tax cuts are concentrated in mountain resort areas. For example, Teton County, Wyoming is projected to see the highest average tax cut in the nation at $37,373 per taxpayer in 2026. Pitkin County, Colorado ($21,363) and Summit County, Utah ($14,537) follow closely, likely reflecting the presence of high-income earners and business owners, stated the foundation.
In contrast, rural counties such as Loup County, Nebraska is expected to see much smaller average cuts, with an estimated $824 per taxpayer in 2026.
In Davidson County, residents can expect to receive an average tax cut of $5,790 in 2026, a nearly 43% difference from the national average.
Williamson County, the wealthiest in the state, is expected to receive the highest average cut at $9,951 per taxpayer.
Sumner County and Wilson County follow with average reductions of $4,177 and $4,143, respectively. Rutherford County will see a more moderate cut of $3,221, while Cheatham County and Robertson County will receive the smallest average tax breaks at $3,039 and $2,917, respectively, per taxpayer.
Clay County, one of the most rural areas in both the region and the state, is projected to receive the lowest average tax cut at $2,069.
The Tax Foundation estimated how tax changes from the act would be distributed across different regions using national-level revenue data from its General Equilibrium Model. Their analysis focused on individual and business tax provisions, excluding changes to the estate tax.
To break down the impact by county, they used 2022 IRS data, which includes various tax details by location. These estimates don’t account for broader economic effects like changes in GDP.
Using IRS data, they matched national revenue estimates to counties based on specific tax characteristics, then averaged the results by the number of filers in each area. However, the accuracy of this analysis is limited, said the federation, especially for newer and more targeted provisions like the tipped income deduction due to gaps in county-level IRS data.
For business-related tax changes, the foundation assumed the financial impact would be shared between capital and labor income. Initially, they estimated that corporate taxes would mostly affect capital income (90% in the first year), gradually shifting to an even split between capital and labor income by the fifth year.
Job impacts at the state level were estimated using national job projections from the model and the distribution of labor and capital income across states.
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for the Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X at @_leyvadiana
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How much Nashville, Middle TN taxpayers could save under Trump cuts