Korea’s Early Export Lifted by Chips Despite US Tariffs Toll

South Korea’s early exports data showed exports held up in August so far, powered by a surge in semiconductor shipments that helped offset pressure from sweeping US tariffs.

The value of shipments increased 7.6% from a year earlier in the first 20 days of August, according to data released Thursday by the customs office. That compared with a 5.8% increase in the full month of July. Imports edged up 0.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $833 million. Working-day adjusted exports also climbed 7.6% for the first 20 days of the month.

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“Exports through the first 20 days of August came in stronger than expected, driven by a surge in semiconductor shipments,” said Bloomberg economist Hyosung Kwon. “Strong global demand for AI-related computer chips lifted overall exports, while car shipments also jumped — probably supported by an expected decrease in US tariffs on Korean cars to 15%.”

The latest data come after a last-minute trade deal that capped US tariffs on imports of Korean goods at 15% — a higher rate than the 10% implemented from April, but below the 25% level that President Donald Trump had threatened to impose.

Manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics Co., have benefited from Trump’s decision to put smartphones, laptops and other consumer technology products on an exclusion list. Supply-chain relationships with companies such as Apple Inc. have also helped.

South Korea’s shipments of semiconductors increased almost 30% from a year earlier in the first 20 days of August, the customs office data showed, with such devices accounting for nearly 25% of total exports. Meanwhile, auto exports climbed 22% during the same period.

Still, exports face risks ahead. The front-loading impact is expected to fade now that a trade deal has been reached, and Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on semiconductors this month.

Auto exports also face uncertainty, as the 25% US tariff on Korean cars remains in place until Trump signs an executive order to align it with the 15% universal rate. Written documentation on the trade deals agreed to with Japan and South Korea is “weeks away,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday in an interview with CNBC. Trump has also threatened to add chip tariffs by the end of August.

The negative impact from US trade policies is expected to materialize more fully in the second half of the year with the front-loading effect gradually wanes, the state-run think tank Korea Development Institute said in a report.

“With US tariff rates on most Korean goods now set, front-loaded shipments ahead of the tariff deal may unwind,” Kwon said. “Any pullback could weigh on South Korea’s exports in the second half of the year.”

Some sectors remained weak. Steel exports dropped 4.5%, staying weak under the pressure of the 50% US tariff, and petroleum product shipments fell 4%. Unadjusted exports to the US fell 2.7%, whereas shipments to China increased 2.7%. Exports to Thailand increased 59%, and those to Singapore rose 82%.

Exports are equivalent to more than 40% of South Korea’s economy, making them a key barometer of growth. While the tariff deal and signs of stronger consumption offer some support, the central bank is likely to stay cautious on the growth outlook, as tariffs may still pose risks to exports down the road, Jeong-Woo Park, a Nomura Holdings economist, wrote in a note this week.

(Updates with economist’s comments and chart.)

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