Fed’s Bostic Still Sees One 2025 Rate Cut But Watching Labor

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he still sees just one interest-rate cut as appropriate for this year, but added the labor-market trajectory is “potentially troubling” and bears watching.

“That’s kind of still where I am,” Bostic said Thursday during an event organized by the Metro Atlanta Chamber, referring to his June projection. “But I would just say in today’s world, every point estimate or forecast has a wide confidence band around it,” and “I’m not stuck on anything.”

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Bostic, who does not hold a vote on the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, was speaking ahead of a high-profile gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, set to kick off Thursday evening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a keynote address to the conference on Friday.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview that aired earlier Thursday, said he still sees modestly restrictive policy as appropriate, given that inflation risks outweigh risks to employment. His comments echoed minutes of the central bank’s latest policy meeting in July, published on Wednesday, which showed most officials held the same view.

The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady this year on concerns that the Trump administration’s tariffs will stoke inflation. But concerns about the labor market are also building after the most recent jobs report revealed a substantial slowdown in hiring in the three months through July.

That report came out just after the Fed’s July 29-30 policy meeting, and may have shifted the Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks. But data on wholesale prices released last week also showed the biggest increase last month in three years, feeding concerns among those who are still worried about inflation.

Bostic said he prefers the Fed to move in one direction once it starts moving, instead of beginning to cut and then having to backtrack. He described the current level of rates as “marginally” restrictive and said he expects officials to continue moving to a more neutral stance next year.

Investors now see high odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 gathering, according to futures.

(Updates with Schmid comments in fourth paragraph.)

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