Scotland leans on English taxpayers to pay the bills as North Sea revenue falls
Scotland has become increasingly reliant on taxpayers in London and the South East to fund public spending as the Labour Government turns its back on the North Sea.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned that Holyrood and other parts of the UK had become increasingly dependent on “high-income and high-wealth” households to fund hospitals, schools and other local services.
The think tank said the situation in Scotland was exacerbated by its dependence on North Sea oil and gas revenues, as activity has declined.
However, the IFS added that “all regions” except London and the South East had seen revenues grow less quickly than the UK average over the past two decades.
It said the increasing reliance on the capital and the South East since the 2008 financial crisis had been driven by freezes in income tax thresholds for higher earners, as well as more revenues from inheritance tax, stamp duty and capital gains taxes, which have long been concentrated in the South.
Rachel Reeves is expected to target wealth as part of her second Budget this autumn.
The Chancellor is considering a raid on higher-value properties and inheritance tax as she seeks to plug a multibillion-pound black hole in the public finances.
However, the think tank warned that “heavy reliance” on any one group to fund government spending posed risks to the public purse.
Higher incomes tend to be “more volatile and high-income and high-wealth individuals are more internationally mobile”, the IFS warned.
Official figures last week showed Scotland’s deficit widened last year to £26.2bn, up from £21.4bn in the previous financial year. The analysis also showed Scots received nearly £2,700 more public spending each than the UK average last year, as the gap widened to record levels.
This was partly driven by the Scottish Government’s more generous welfare system and means that Scotland’s deficit – the difference between total revenue and expenditure – surged to 11.6pc of GDP, more than double the UK figure of 5.1pc and higher than anywhere else in Europe.
North Sea oil and gas revenue fell for a second consecutive year and has also declined from an average of 5.3pc of GDP in the late 2000s to roughly 1.9pc today.
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, banned the issuing of new licences to expand fossil fuel production last year and around 180 of the UK’s 280 oil and gas fields are expected to shut down over the next five years.
However, Norway this week said it had made one of its biggest North Sea oil discoveries in a decade.
David Phillips, at the IFS, said: “The health of Scotland’s underlying public finances has long depended more on North Sea oil and gas revenues than that of the UK as a whole.
“As these revenues have fallen, the extent to which higher public spending north of the border relies on fiscal transfers has increased.
“Other parts of the UK outside London and the South East have seen similar patterns, likely reflecting increased dependence on high-income and high-wealth households – which are disproportionately located in and around London – for tax revenues.”
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