The Fed still has the power to juice the market
This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:
The Chart of the Day
What we're watching
What we're reading
Economic data releases and earnings
How can the Fed's quiet period be so loud?
In the media blackout leading up to the central bank's rate-setting decision next week, Chair Powell and his colleagues (and potential future and potential ex-colleagues) are still on everyone's minds. Investors are still locked in on the play-by-play as they anticipate a decisive end to the wait-and-see mini-era that has defined the Fed's static hold since December.
The lousy jobs numbers from August have likely forced the Fed to step in. But despite the near certainty that a cut is nigh, the Fed — or the potential of the Fed's future action — still has the power to electrify the market as the focus now moves to whether we'll see a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut or the standard 25.
How many cuts we see and how fast they come has rapidly stepped in to replace the "will they, won't they" debate.
Ahead of two inflation reports due later this week, which aren't expected to show much progress on combating pricing pressures, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) were at or near all-time highs.
Market bets now anticipate the Fed will lower rates three times in a row, starting later this month and continuing through the October and December policy meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors are cheering on the move.
And with lower rates and cheaper borrowing costs, households and businesses will receive a jolt to help reignite growth.
Even if, as we pointed out over the weekend, bad economic news once again signals trouble.
If the Fed were to opt for a half-point jumbo cut, a move the central bank executed at the September meeting a year ago, investors would be confronted with an interesting dilemma. It may tip either way on the good-bad scale, depending on how it's framed and the rest of the week's news — and mood. The same move that bulls will see as a shot in the arm for the economy (great!) may be perceived by bears as proof that the economy is sick enough to warrant the jab.
While a jumbo cut isn't the most expected scenario, it's not hard to see how it could make waves either way. And at least on Monday, the market's movement said it'd love to see it.
Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.
Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance