How the dropping dollar could scramble Trump's agenda

US stock futures popped on Wednesday after the US struck a trade deal with Japan, lifting hopes for further tariff pacts as Wall Street got ready for Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) earnings.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) rose roughly 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved up 0.4%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) edged up 0.1%, following a mixed day for stocks.

The new pact places a 15% tariff on imports from Japan, President Trump said — a step down from the threatened 25% duties set to hit next week. For its part, Tokyo will make $550 billion in US investment. "It's a great deal for everybody," Trump said late Tuesday.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

The major-partner breakthrough lifted optimism that more trade deals will be sealed before Aug. 1, when Trump's sweeping tariffs kick in. Economists believe that if tariffs then average out at 15%, that would be manageable for the global economy, limiting damage.

The deal's confidence boost for markets after months of tariff uncertainty is likely to fuel this week's record-setting run in the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which eked out another all-time closing high on Tuesday.

But the rally faces a big test in Google-parent Alphabet and Tesla's earnings due after the bell, the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to report.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk's rocky relationship with Trump is looming large over the EV maker's earnings. With its stock down nearly 18% year-to-date, investors are watching for updates on the company's core auto business and its robotaxi rollout.

With Alphabet, investors are looking for signs that AI investments are starting to pay off as the company pours billions into the technology. A federal judge's decision that could force the company to sell Google Chrome will also be in focus.

Meanwhile, investors will scour Wednesday's flurry of quarterly earnings for more insight into how Corporate America is coping with tariffs, after Texas Instruments' (TXN) soft guidance fed fears. Highlights on the docket include Chipotle (CMG), AT&T (T), IBM (IBM), and Alaska Air (ALK).

Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban reports in today's Morning Brief:

They're cramming it into everything now. It's in pancakes and pasta, chips and cereal. Plant-based or harvested from the farm, it's the macro(nutrient) of the moment. And slices of corporate America are not so subtly asking: Have you met your protein goal today?

Protein Doritos sounds like the ideal mashup for the gym rat snack fiends of the world. But it's not as farfetched a product as you might think. Pepsi (PEP) plans to unveil new protein offerings for some of its Frito-Lay and Quaker brands, part of a broader shift to enhance their products and strip away artificial flavors and colors. (But what is a tasty Cheeto if not a brazenly synthetic delight?)

Pepsi's intended relaunch and extension of popular brands is a reaction to a consumer base on the hunt for healthier, cleaner options. Executives across the food and beverage world see a potential crisis unfolding. As demand for legacy products wavers, companies are reaching for new lines (like fiber, prebiotics, hydration, energy, and protein) to support the core business.

\\"Protein is clearly a subsegment in our food and beverages categories that is growing fast,\\" said PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta on an earnings call last week. \\"Consumers are adopting protein solutions in the diet at a pace that was not the case a few months back, a few years back.

Read more here.

Shares in Enphase Energy (ENPH) fell after its third quarter revenue forecast fell short, as the US solar company pointed to headwinds from President Trump's policies.

The solar equipment maker said Trump's import tariffs had hit its gross margin, after the US in April finalized steep duties on solar cells from Southeast Asia.

At the same time, Enphase faces the fallout from Trump's cuts to tax incentives in the renewable energy sector. It said it expects the US residential solar market to shrink 20% next year as tax credits for homeowners end under Trump's sweeping budget legislation.

Bloomberg reports:

While some analysts have predicted even steeper declines, the estimate from Enphase marks one of the first big projections from an industry player since Trump’s spending bill was passed. The company is among the first US solar companies to report earnings this quarter. ...

The yanking of federal government support is hitting the industry after home solar installers had already been facing headwinds, including persistently high interest rates that have made it more expensive for residents to buy panels.

Two major home solar financiers have filed for bankruptcy so far this year. Trump’s new tax-and-spending law passed earlier this month will eliminate tax incentives for residential solar purchases by year end. However, companies that lease panels can claim the incentive through 2027.

Read more here.

Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading:

Krispy Kreme (DNUT)`stock rose 22% before the bell boosted by their names trending on social media a day after retail traders snapped up Kohl’s (KSS) shares.

Camera maker GoPro (GPRO) shares rose 43%, per Reuters short interest in the stock recently stood at 7.7%. Investor interest in heavily shorted stocks has grown after Kohl’s jumped 38% on Tuesday amid heavy retail buying.

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) stock rose 4% premarket after PJM Interconnection released results from its 2026-2027 capacity auction. The grid operator set record prices at $329.17 per megawatt-day, raising total capacity costs to $16.1 billion from $14.7 billion last year.

Tesla (TSLA) is slated to report second quarter earnings on Wednesday against an uncertain backdrop for its core auto business and robotaxi rollout.

Tesla stock pared some of its losses earlier in the year, as tariffs and a volatile relationship between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump weighed on the company. But the stock is still down about 17% year to date.

Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian previews three key areas to watch when the EV maker reports:

The core: Tesla's bread and butter, despite Musk's embrace of a robot-driven future, is its core auto business. That drives the huge majority of revenue and profit at Tesla.

The company is expected to report second quarter revenue of $22.79 billion, per Bloomberg estimates, a 9% drop compared with the $25.05 billion reported a year ago. From a profitability standpoint, Wall Street analysts are expecting adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion, down slightly from a year ago.

Robotaxi rollout: On the bright side for Tesla is Elon Musk's big bet on the future with robotaxis. Tesla and Musk will most likely focus on that business, and this may perhaps point to future rollout plans with more cars and regions.

\\"The earnings call also presents an opportunity for Tesla's robotaxi/AV narrative to shine, which has been front and center of Tesla stock's strength,\\" Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note to investors. \\"We could see Elon Musk potentially discussing fleet growth targets or expansion plans.\\"

Where's the cheap EV? A year ago, Tesla said in its Q2 earnings report that production remains on track for new vehicles, likely including a cheaper EV, in the first half of next year.

Investors and analysts are still waiting. There has been no indication or even renderings of a new vehicle, let alone production of a vehicle priced around $30,000. Tesla's cheapest EV is the rear-wheel-drive Model 3 sedan, which starts at around $43,000 without incentives.

Investors are keen to hear more about the development of the long-awaited cheaper EV that Tesla has promised, along with other new vehicles that the company said would allow it to return to a 50% growth rate compared to 2023.

Read more here.

The return of meme stock mania doesn't appear like it will end on Wednesday.

Some of the highest-trending ticker pages on Yahoo Finance this morning are meme crowd favorites Kohl's (KSS), Rocket (RKT), and Krispy Kreme (DNUT). As of 6 a.m. ET, Rocket and Krispy Kreme are each up double-digit percentages in premarket.

\\"The phenomenon of meme stocks isn't going away. I feel like the genie's out of the bottle. And it's just become a way for a certain subset of everyday investors to trade, and that's completely fine,\\" Ritholtz Wealth Management strategist Callie Cox said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid (watch below).

Makes sense!

Given how hard the stock market has rallied, any company reporting guidance that is perceived as subpar will get punished.

A good example of that will play out with Texas Instruments (TXN) in today's session.

The stock is getting pounded premarket, down 12% after third quarter guidance on earnings per share that was 14 cents below consensus on the low end. TXN blamed weak demand in the auto market (heard the same in GM's (GM) outlook on Tuesday).

Executives at the key chipmaker for producers of cars and factory equipment said they didn't know how much of the second quarter's jump in revenue was down to customers trying to get ahead of tariffs, per Reuters.

Whatever the case, TXN's outlook is putting pressure on similar names in the space: Microchip (MCHP), Analog Devices (ADI), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and On Semi (ON).

Shares of Japanese automakers pumped after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, lowering the previously discussed 25% auto tariffs on Japanese vehicles to 15%.

Honda (HMC) surged 9.8%, Toyota (TM) jumped 13.9%, Nissan (7222.T) gained over 5%, and Mazda (7261.T) soared 17.7%. Mitsubishi Motors (7211.T) rose over 12%.

According to Japan's NHK, the revised tariff structure includes a 12.5% cut plus a 2.5% “Most Favored Nation” base rate. The move comes as Japanese auto exports to the US have suffered, plunging 26.7% in June.

Trump hailed the deal as the “largest Deal ever,” claiming Japan would invest $550 billion in the US and allow greater access to its markets, including for American autos, trucks, and agricultural goods.

Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN)

Texas Instruments, a leading chipmaker with the broadest product list in the field, saw its share value drop over 11.6% in after-hours trading. The stock has seen 46% gains in the year to date following a boom in purchases with each wave of tariff announcements. The rapid cooling-off occurred when the executive team announced they were unaware how much of the increase in revenue had been dependent on consumers attempting to circumvent the hike in prices from Trump's tariffs.

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

Solar equipment provider Enphase Energy saw a drop of over 7.2% in the company's stock value in extended trading. With 5% of the market share in the solar equipment field Enphase acts as an early indicator for the impact that Trump's removal of tax credits will have upon the industry. Enphase are pointing towards a 20% drop in the residential market.

Read more here.

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

Shares in semiconductor maker Analog Devices saw a drop of over 4.1% after-hours, erasing gains from the month so far. The company specializes in chips that convert real world input into electrical signals, processing sound, light, temperature, pressure and motion. Investors have been eyeing ADI's earnings reports, still not due for another month.

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