US stocks opened higher on Monday as US-China trade talks unfolded in Madrid and investors awaited a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up 0.2% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.6% to trade a record.

The major US stock indexes are coming off a strong week in which Nasdaq notched a record close, climbing 2% for back-to-back weekly gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, its best weekly showing since early August, while the Dow snapped a two-week losing streak.

Investors were looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting Wednesday, with traders pricing in a 96% chance of a quarter-point reduction as of Monday morning.

A rate cut could provide another tailwind for stocks, particularly as AI enthusiasm continues to drive market sentiment. Traders will also be watching whether Stephen Miran is sworn in as a Fed governor in time to participate in this week’s FOMC vote.

US and Chinese officials also met for another round of high-stakes trade talks in Madrid on Monday amid their ongoing trade war.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the countries agreed on a framework for a TikTok deal ahead of a US ban set to go into effect Sept. 17. Shares of Oracle (ORCL), the software giant that is reportedly a contender to buy the social media app, jumped as much as 5% Monday.

Elsewhere, Nvidia's stock slid over 1.5% after China said a preliminary probe found the AI chipmaker had violated antitrust laws.

Tesla (TSLA) stock jumped 5% after news broke that CEO Elon Musk had purchased $1 billion Tesla shares.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell nearly 1% Monday to trade around 114,650 after the cryptocurrency last week saw its biggest gain in two months.

Bitcoin is up 23% for the year.

Other cryptocurrencies also dropped Monday after a day of big gains last Friday. Ethereum (ETH-USD) fell 2.3%, Solana (SOL-USD) sank 4%, and XRP (XRP-USD) dipped fractionally.

The moves come ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting Wednesday, where investors are all but certain the central bank will cut interest rates.

Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) shares rose 3.6% Monday and touched an all-time high above $251.

The stock's gain comes as Citi (C) analyst Ron Josey lifted his price target on shares to $280 from $225, citing the tech giant's \\"accelerated product development cycle\\" given \\"greater Gemini adoption across both its Ads and Cloud businesses, according to Bloomberg.\\" Gemini refers to Google's suite of AI models.

The stocmoves sent Alphabet's market capitalization past $3 trillion for the first time.

Manufacturing activity in the New York Fed's region fell sharply in September.

The NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed the general business conditions index this month fell to -8.7 from 11.9 in August. This marked a retreat after two straight months of positive readings.

The index is calculated by taking the differential between those reporting better conditions and those reporting worse conditions; a little under half of the respondents to September's survey reported no change.

The headline retreat in conditions was driven by a sharp pullback in new orders and shipments, with both sub-indexes falling to their lowest levels since April 2024.

Some optimism remained about the outlook, however, with the index for future conditions coming in at 14.8 in September, roughly unchanged from the prior month.

US stocks climbed on Monday ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up 0.2% near the 46,000 level, which it crossed last week for the first time. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.3%.

Meanwhile the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way and gained 0.45%, with Tesla (TSLA) stock rising as CEO Elon Musk purchased $1 billion worth of shares and Oracle (ORCL) climbing on hints of a US-China TikTok deal.

Oracle shares rose roughly 5% before the market open on Monday as President Trump hinted that the US and China had reached a TikTok deal during trade talks in Madrid.

Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social: \\"The big Trade Meeting in Europe between The United States of America, and China, has gone VERY WELL! It will be concluding shortly. A deal was also reached on a “certain” company that young people in our Country very much wanted to save.\\"

That post came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters outright that the US and China were \\"very close\\" to a TikTok deal.

ByteDance-owned TikTok faces a US ban unless it divests its ownership to a US- or US-allied country by Sept. 17.

Politico reported in March that the White House was considering a deal from Oracle to run TikTok. Others who've expressed interest in buying the social media company have included a group of investors led by billionaire Frank McCourt Jr., Microsoft (MSFT), YouTuber Mr. Beast, and Perplexity AI.

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has responded to an unprecedented pay proposal from the company's board by buying $1 billion worth of Tesla shares, sending the EV makers stock up by 7% in premarket trading on Monday.

Bloomberg News reports:

The billionaire bought the stock indirectly through a revocable trust on Sept. 12, according to a regulatory filing released Monday. The purchases coincided with Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm speaking with Bloomberg News about the merits of a pay package for Musk that could be worth upwards of $1 trillion if the company achieves a series of ambitious market value and performance milestones.

Musk, 54, last bought Tesla stock in the open market in February 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He offloaded more than $20 billion of the company’s shares in 2022, the year he acquired Twitter.

Read more here.

Stocks notched further record highs last week as investors bet the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at the end of its meeting on Wednesday.

Markets are pricing in 100% odds of a rate cut, with the vast majority forecasting a reduction of 25 basis points. The debate now is how many more cuts are likely in 2025 — and whether the Fed just might go for a bigger move of 50 basis points.

Count President Trump in the jumbo-cut camp, going by his remarks to reporters on Sunday.

“I think you have a big cut,” Trump said on his way back to Washington. “It’s perfect for cutting.”

The Fed's call could determine whether the rally in stocks has room to run. That makes it pivotal for markets.

Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal and Jake Conley spell out what to watch:

Alongside its policy decision, the Fed will release its quarterly \\"dot plot\\" — a snapshot of policymakers' projections for the path of interest rates.

In June, officials penciled in two rate cuts for 2025, although the forecasts revealed a more divided committee. Seven members saw no cuts at all, compared with four in March. Powell acknowledged the divergence at the time, stressing that \\"right now it's just a forecast in a very foggy time.\\"

Investors will be looking for more clarity this week, but the backdrop isn't straightforward.

Tariffs are increasingly feeding into inflation after US customs duties surged to a record $29.5 billion in August following President Trump's new \\"reciprocal\\" levies. ... At the same time, labor market weakness has become harder to ignore.

Read more here.

Economic data: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (September)

Earnings calendar: Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:

China finds Nvidia broke antitrust law

The Fed is set for its first 2025 cut. But will it keep going?

Fed rate decision dominates pivotal week for markets

BYD's $45 billion stock wipeout raises doubts on China outlook

Wall Street strategists see stock rally stalling on Fed rate cut

A key market data point is signaling fear about America's economy

Trump expects a 'big cut' from Federal Reserve this week

Intel lowers full-year expense target

Here's a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) stock fell 2% before the bell on Monday following reports last week that Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is preparing a majority-cash bid for the media conglomerate.

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) stock dropped 3% in premarket trading following news over the weekend that China said it was launching an anti-dumping investigation targeting a type of semiconductor made by US companies including Texas Instruments Inc.

Google parent company, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) stock rose 1% before the bell on Monday. On Sunday, Tech Crunch reported that Rolling Stone owner Penske Media was planning to sue Google over AI summaries.

China said a preliminary investigation found that Nvidia (NVDA) has violated its antitrust laws on Monday.

The country's market regulator will continue its anti-monopoly probe, it said in a statement.

Shares in Nvidia fell about 2.2% in premarket on the heels of the news.

The move will ratchet up pressure on Washington, whose negotiators are headed into a second day of sensitive talks with China.

Bloomberg reports:

The company has previously disclosed it’s facing scrutiny inside China, where regulators demanded it keep supplying local companies in return for regulatory approval of its acquisition of Mellanox. The company warned that it may face penalties in that case. Nvidia completed the purchase of Mellanox, a maker of networking technology, in 2020.

Bloomberg reports:

Bullion traded near $3,640 an ounce, after gaining for four consecutive weeks. Traders see a quarter-point cut this week amid signs of labor market weakness, and some potential for reductions extending into next year.

That expectation has driven Treasury yields to the lowest in months, weakened the greenback and supported gold. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding the metal, while a weaker dollar makes it more affordable. Whether the central bank will challenge these bets is a key question for investors this week.

“Macroeconomic numbers are likely to take over from tariff-related headlines,” ANZ Group Holdings’ Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said in a note, meaning that investors are watching how US tariffs will impact the nation’s economic growth and inflation data.

Bullion has rallied nearly 40% this year, and recently broke out a spell of range-bound trading to surpass an inflation-adjusted record. Persistent uncertainty over geopolitics and Trump’s tariff agenda, and concerted central bank buying have provided support.