Wheat Holding Steady on Thursday AM Trade

Large economies in Europe and Asia continued to show resilience in the face of high levels of uncertainty about the future of trade and international relations, although export orders weakened.

The eurozone’s composite purchasing managers’ index—a measure of activity across the private sector—edged up to 51.0 in July from 50.8 in June. The rise marked the fastest rate of business growth in nearly a year as demand stabilized, and beat expectations of a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

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Separate surveys for the Japanese and Australian economies pointed to growth despite declines in new export orders received by factories. In contrast, Indian factories reported a continued expansion in overseas orders, which supported rapid economic growth.

Global economic output was volatile in the first half of the year, largely due to swings in the U.S. While the world’s largest economy contracted in the first three months of the year as businesses built stocks ahead of anticipated increases in tariffs, economists estimate that it rebounded strongly in the second quarter. A reversal of that pattern is likely for those economies that fed the build-up in U.S. inventories, including the eurozone.

While total new business in the eurozone stabilized, new export orders declined modestly. In the U.K., goods producers widely reported a negative hit in the wake of U.S. tariff announcements, with shipments delayed, investment decisions postponed and rising competition in international markets.

Despite the slow downward trend for exports, much of survey data shows the tariff threat hasn’t impacted trade as much as feared when President Trump announced many potential levies in early April.

In the eurozone, incoming data is still influenced by U.S. firms stockpiling European goods to frontload ahead of tariffs, but the PMI surveys offer a better sense that the economy is performing “decently enough”, ING economist Carsten Brzeski said in a note to clients.

Business growth in the services sector reached a six-month high, the survey said, particularly encouraging given it makes up the largest part of the eurozone economy, Brzeski noted.

The renewed fiscal impulse from countries such as Germany, alongside robust stock-market rises in the months since has provided renewed strength in the economy.

“If there’s anything good out of the trade shock, it’s that there are signs that Europe is waking up,” Swiss Re Chief Economist Jerome Jean Haegeli said.

The positive impact of new capital expenditure such as on defense will be structurally more meaningful in Europe than the negative hit from the shock of trade tariffs, he added.

The European Union is closing in on an outline trade agreement with the Trump administration for tariffs of 15% on most exports, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

The data comes ahead of a European Central Bank rate decision later Thursday, in which it is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. The ECB has cut rates eight times since June last year as inflation eased, though policymakers have flagged enduring uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

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