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Oil Dips as Traders Zero in on Prospect of More OPEC+ Supplies

(Bloomberg) -- Oil declined on signals that OPEC+ will hike production again in November, tempering a strong rally last week.

Brent fell back below $70 a barrel after closing at the highest level since late July on Friday. The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia is considering raising output by at least as much as the 137,000 barrel-a-day hike scheduled for next month, according to people familiar with the plans.

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While such an increase could add supply to a market in which there’s already expected to be an excess, it would also bring further scrutiny to which of the group’s members are running into their capacity limits.

“We view a repeat of the incremental 137,000-barrel-a-day addition for November as the most likely outcome,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a note, referring to the decision likely to be taken at the Oct. 5 meeting.

“Given that many producers, excluding Saudi Arabia, have essentially hit their production ceilings, future OPEC+ supply increases will be materially lower than the announced headline numbers,” the analysts added.

Crude remains on track for monthly and quarterly gains, even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been pursuing a strategy to reclaim market share rather than managing prices. Oil has been underpinned by robust buying for stockpiling in China, as well as on geopolitical tensions, including Ukraine’s strikes against Moscow’s energy infrastructure.

The International Energy Agency has projected a record oversupply in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production, and as supply climbs from the group’s rivals. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., meanwhile, has said it sees Brent falling to the mid-$50s a barrel next year, despite the crude stockpiling from China.

In Iraq, meanwhile, flows via a pipeline that ships crude from the country’s northern region to a terminal in Turkey restarted in recent days after a halt of more than two years. Amer Al-Mehairi, director general of Iraq’s North Oil Co., said the resumption of exports along the conduit was continuing.

--With assistance from John Deane.