US stocks mostly climbed on Monday as investors eyed a looming US government shutdown that risks delaying the release of the all-important monthly jobs report later in the week.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped nearly 0.5%, with the the two gauges poised to build on Friday's rebound but giving up bigger gains earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped around 0.2%.

Markets are assessing the odds of a US government shutdown on Wednesday this week, as a standoff between Republicans and Democrats goes down to the wire. A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders is set for Monday, likely the last hope of avoiding a halt to federal funding. Odds of a shutdown are seen over 80%, according to Polymarket.

The Department of Labor on Monday said the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which releases key economic data including Friday's planned monthly jobs report, will "suspend all operations."

"Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released," the department said as part of a shutdown contingency plan.

The BLS's monthly job updates, as well as its release of consumer and producer inflation reports, have been key to the Federal Reserve's policy setting and so, too, the bets on interest rate cuts that have helped buoy stocks.

Last week, jobless claims fell short and GDP growth was revised higher, fueling speculation that the Fed may not cut rates as aggressively as hoped. That puts even more weight on the jobs report, amid forecasts that nonfarm payrolls grew 43,000 and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% for the month.

At the same time, investors are regrouping from a losing week that saw cracks emerge in AI-focused stock trading as well as surprise tariff announcements from President Trump for Oct. 1. On Monday, Trump added to those tariff announcements by proposing new duties on movies and furniture.

Despite that, stocks are still on pace to finish September — and the third quarter — with gains. The S&P 500 is up 2.8% month-to-date, while the Dow has added 1.5%. The Nasdaq, boosted by tech, has rallied 2.9%.

The Department of Labor on Monday said the Bureau of Labor Statistics would \\"suspend all operations\\" in the event of a government shutdown, which is looking increasingly likely to happen starting Wednesday.

\\"Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released. All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease,\\" the department said.

The BLS releases key updates on jobs and inflation that have been key for the Federal Reserve's policy setting and bets on its interest rate moves. That includes Friday's planned nonfarm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, both scheduled for release the week of Oct. 13.

Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul has more details on today's shutdown-related meeting at the White House.

Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports:

Toyota (TM) reported another bump-up in global sales for August, with the US consumer powering the gains.

The world’s largest automaker by volume said global sales rose 2.2% in August year over year to nearly 845,000 units sold, with the company marking its eighth straight month of sales gains. Toyota’s year-to-date sales through August hit 6.9 million units, up 5% compared to last year.

The US, the largest market for the Japanese automaker, marked the biggest gains for Toyota.

Sales in August hit 225,367 units sold in the US, a 13.6% jump compared to a year ago. Year-to-date sales were up 7.2%, just above 1.68 million units sold.

Read more here.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares climbed more than 3% and eyed a fresh record Monday.

The stock traded around $183.80 late morning before pulling back slightly. Shares hit a record close of $183.61 last week.

The jump comes even as Nvidia's Chinese chipmaking rival Huawei reportedly plans to double production of its latest AI chips, according to Bloomberg, just as Nvidia has faced difficulties with its place in the China market, which CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized as a rapidly growing $50 billion opportunity.

Those difficulties range from the Trump administration's short-lived export ban on its chips for China to the latest reports of a Chinese ban on purchases of those chips.

A bright spot for the stock Monday: Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon reiterated his Buy rating on Nvidia shares, pointing to \\"off the charts\\" demand for its chips.

The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing dropped to -8.7 in September, lower than the -1 reading expected and the -1.8 in August.

Texas accounts for more than 10% of US manufacturing output.

The contraction in manufacturing activity in the state comes after the S&P Global's Flash PMI reading last week showed the broader US manufacturing and services sectors grew less than expected in September.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed's employment index for Texas manufacturing dropped 12 points to -3.4 in September, marking \\"a slight decline in employment\\" and the lowest reading since April, amid broader cracks in the US labor market.

At the same time, production in the manufacturing sector in Texas grew at a slower pace, with the regional bank's production index falling 10 points from August to 5.2.

The latest data is another metric of the country's economic health as the Federal Reserve weighs further interest rate cuts this year.

Intel (INTC) shares fell on Monday after surging more than 20% during the prior trading week.

The stock dipped more than 3% in early trading, snapping its recent rally following Nvidia's (NVDA) announcement that the AI chipmaker would take a $5 billion stake in the struggling company and that the two firms would partner to develop chips for data centers and personal computers.

The US government also made a $9 billion investment in Intel in August.

Deutsche Bank (DB) analyst Ross Seymore wrote in a note to clients on Monday that the moves \\"reflect CEO Lip Bu Tan's aggressive pursuit of strengthening the company's balance sheet at all costs.\\"

Tan assumed his role as chief executive of Intel earlier this year after the ouster of former CEO Pat Gelsinger last December.

But Seymore also said that it will likely be a few years before Intel sees the benefit of its latest turnaround efforts.

\\"We note that the true financial benefit of the steps taken by the company (investment in foundry, rehabbing their product roadmap, announced collaborations) remain unlikely until 2028+,\\" Seymore wrote.

US stocks climbed on Monday at the open, despite a looming US government shutdown that could delay the release of significant monthly jobs report later in the week, which will factor into the Federal Reserve's path of interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 0.5%. The moves built on Friday's rebound after the major gauges slumped last week to snap a record-breaking rally.

Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports:

With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) trading near record highs and valuations approaching levels last seen during the dot-com bubble, strategists are rethinking what normal looks like for today’s market.

Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian is among those making the case.

“Perhaps we should anchor to today’s multiples as the new normal rather than expecting mean reversion to a bygone era,” Subramanian wrote in a client note on Wednesday.

That shift in thinking reflects a broader recalibration across Wall Street, driven by accelerating artificial intelligence adoption and resilient earnings growth.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told Yahoo Finance that while valuations remain elevated compared to long-term averages, they look more justifiable when measured against the past five years — a stretch marked by megacap leadership and strong fundamentals.

Read more here.

Electronic Arts (EA) announced on Monday that it will be acquired by a group of investors comprising Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners in a deal valued at $55 billion.

The deal marks the largest leveraged buyout in history.

Shares of the maker of the \\"Sims\\" and \\"Madden NFL\\" video game franchises jumped over 5% in premarket to $204 per share, as shareholders will receive $210 per share from the deal, a 25% premium to the stock price as of Sept. 25.

The stock surged nearly 15% on Friday after the Wall Street Journal initially reported that EA was in advanced talks to be acquired for as much as $50 billion. Year to date, the stock is up 32%.

Shares in MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) cratered almost 90% a couple of hours before the bell on the heels of disappointing trial data.

The biopharma company's trial results for a skin disease drug fell short of showing it was superior to treatments such as UCB SA's Bimzelx, analysts found.

Bloomberg reports:

UCB shares surged as much as 20%, adding more than €7 billion ($8.2 billion) in market value. MoonLake plunged as much as 87% in US premarket trading, with the stock set to erase most of its $4 billion capitalization.

The key data point for MoonLake’s sonelokimab in patients with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa — measured by a reduction in skin abscesses and inflammation — showed a combined efficacy of 14% on a placebo adjusted basis across two studies, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. UCB’s Bimzelx treatment showed an 18% placebo adjusted benefit in previously announced trial results.

The profile for sonelokimab is “unambiguously inferior” to Bimzelx in hidradenitis suppurativa, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Richard Vosser wrote in a note.

Read more here.

Shares of pot companies climbed in premarket trading on Monday after President Trump shared a video advocating the potential benefits from the use of cannabidiol (CBD) in senior healthcare.

Canopy Growth's (CGC) US-listed stock was up around 14%, paring a gain of almost 20% in the early hours. Tilray Brands (TLRY) jumped over 18%, while Cronos Group (CRON) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) both added about 10%.

Reuters reports:

Trump had said last month his administration was looking to reclassify marijuana, which could also result in potentially easing criminal penalties around its use.

Hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD) could \\"revolutionize senior healthcare\\" by helping reduce disease progression and was shown as an alternative to prescription drugs, according to a video shared by Trump on Truth Social on Sunday. ...

Trump \\"already hinted that they were planning to reclassify it. This doesn't mean it's legalizing the drug, but it does reduce some of the burden on the companies,\\" said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

\\"I do think there is further room for these stocks to move higher if it's confirmed that the reclassification is happening.\\"

Read more here.

Economic data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (September)

Earnings calendar: Carnival Corporation (CCL), Jefferies (JEF), Vail Resorts (MTN), Diginex (DGNX)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:

Why a government shutdown would actually matter this time around

Miran is making a risky bet on Trump, others at Fed believe

Wall Street says high stock valuations could represent a 'new normal'

Shutdown looms as jobs report, Q3 finale await

Tariffs: Trump's $900B demands meet Japan, S. Korea pushback

Under Trump, US loses its share of China's beef market to Australia

Taiwan must help US to make half its chips: Lutnick

AstraZeneca to switch to direct US listing, retain UK base

Here's a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:

Canopy Growth (CGC) and Tilray Brands (TLRY) US-listed shares jumped in premarket trading on Monday following President Trump's social media post suggesting the possible benefits of cannabidiol.

GSK's (GSK) US-listed shares rose 3% following the news that its CEO Emma Walmsley will step down in December and be replaced by insider Luke Miels.

AstraZeneca's (AZN) stock rose 1%v before the bell after announcing it will directly list its shares in the US and invest $50 billion in US manufacturing.

Alibaba (BABA, 9988.HK) shares climbed on Monday, up around over 3% before the bell on Wall Street after closing higher in Hong Kong.

The gains came after analysts lifted their price targets on the stock, citing the Chinese tech giant's accelerated push into AI.

Bloomberg reports:

Morningstar Inc. boosted by 49% the fair value for Alibaba’s American Depositary Receipts and its Hong Kong-listed stock to $267 and HK$260, respectively. Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the ADRs by 21% to $200.

The stock jumped as much as 4.1% to over HK$173 on Monday, taking its advance this month to almost 50% to be the top gainer on the Hang Seng Tech Index.

“The shares appear undervalued,” Chelsey Tam, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, wrote in a note. “Alibaba’s increased investment in overseas data centers, competitive performance, widespread use of its open-source models, and improved performance of its self-developed chip all support cloud revenue growth.”

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that they were “incrementally bullish on Alicloud’s outlook” following the conference in Hangzhou, where Alibaba announced a planned hike in AI spending and a new partnership with Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)

Read more here.

In the seven years since the shutdown happened in President Trump's first term, Americans have been in a perennial state of \\"will they, won't they?\\" notes Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato.

Investors have mostly become desensitized to the drama, but this time could really be different, he writes in a takeaway from Morning Brief:

The first reason it will matter is that — stop us if you've heard this before — it looks all but certain to happen. ... Trump initially appeared open to negotiations with Democratic leaders this week, then abruptly scrapped a planned White House meeting. The discussions are now back on, with the top four congressional members from both sides set to meet the president on Monday at the White House.

In the meantime, the Trump administration has upped the ante by making good on a threat Democrats were concerned about earlier this year: The White House, in a memo, asked federal agencies to explore mass firings if the government shuts down, particularly in programs deemed \\"not consistent with the President’s priorities.\\"

That raises the stakes — not only for Trump's continued bid to reshape the government in his image, but for the US labor market as a whole. The federal workforce has been shrinking this year, part of a broader slowdown in the jobs market.

And the shutdown could also mean we don't find out whether that slowdown has continued — or whether inflation continues to pick up steam.

Read more here.

I've been diving into Goldman's note this morning, which upgrades stocks to Overweight from Neutral.

I don't think there is anything too surprising here. The markets have been the place to be in 2025, and there are powerful catalysts still supportive of higher stock prices. So why should any bank be the one to downgrade stocks just for the sake of trying to make a bold call?

A couple of key points from Goldman:

\\"The business cycle slowdown has continued, but recession risk remains anchored while monetary and fiscal policy easing accelerates, creating still favorable macro conditions for risk assets. Equities typically perform well in late cycle slowdowns with policy support when recession risk stays low - historical parallels include late 1990s and mid-60s, with both periods ultimately triggering strong equity rallies. Investor sentiment and positioning has not picked up materially despite the risk-on market performance. Unlike previous Goldilocks periods, positioning hasn’t reached very bullish levels - flows into bonds, gold, and money markets stay strong while surveys remain somewhat bearish (only retail investors are more bullish).\\"

Gold (GC=F) pushed to a new high, notching a record over $3,800 an ounce, as government insecurity and a weak dollar bolstered desire for the haven asset.

Bloomberg reports:

Bullion rose as much as 1.4% to an all-time high of $3,812.05 an ounce — eclipsing a peak reached last Tuesday — after notching six straight weekly gains. Silver increased as much as 2.4%, while platinum and palladium also rallied strongly, with gains underpinned by persistent market tightness and inflows into exchange-traded funds backed by the metals.

The dollar fell as investors awaited developments ahead of a planned meeting between top US congressional leaders and President Donald Trump on Monday — a day before federal funding would expire if an agreement on a short-term spending bill can’t be reached. A shutdown would threaten the release of key data including Friday’s payrolls report, which economists expect would show subdued jobs growth in September. A weaker greenback makes precious metals cheaper for most buyers.

Weaker employment figures would bolster the case for easing by Fed officials at their next rate decision in October — a scenario that would make non-interest bearing precious metals more attractive. Still, there’s a high degree of uncertainty over the outlook for the Fed’s cutting cycle, with officials voicing diverging views on monetary policy, while some economic data came in stronger than expected.

Read more here.

Oil fell overnight Sunday with an upcoming OPEC+ production hike suppressing price of the commodity.

Bloomberg reports:

Brent (BZ=F) fell below $70 a barrel after advancing 5.2% last week, and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was around $65. The alliance led by Saudi Arabia is considering raising output by at least as much as the 137,000 barrel-a-day hike scheduled for next month, according to people familiar with the plans.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are pursuing a strategy to reclaim market share rather than their typical role of managing prices, bringing back an additional layer of idled output. Still, prices have held up reasonably well, underpinned by robust buying from China.

However, the International Energy Agency is projecting a record glut in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from the group’s rivals climbs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees Brent falling to the mid-$50s a barrel next year, despite crude stockpiling from China.

Read more here.