The last thing the stock market wants right now is a government shutdown. Here’s why.
Good news on the economy this week should be good for stocks over the long run. But any economic news at all might be welcome.
U.S. equities have performed well in September, despite it typically being a tough month for stocks. Yet a government shutdown now looks likely to hit midweek, right as investors will be closing out the month and quarter. Importantly, a shutdown could interrupt the release of September’s all-important jobs report.
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“This one could come at a really unfortunate time, because we are supposed to get the jobs report on Friday,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “If we don’t get access to that data, it’s going to be a problem.”
There has been heavy scrutiny of labor-market data lately, especially after President Donald Trump in August fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a poor monthly report, which also included downward revisions to data for several earlier months.
While all that suggests the U.S. economy has held up despite a glum job market, each fresh monthly labor-market report can bring on a bout of anxiety for investors. And this particular jobs report was pegged to be this week’s showstopper already.
“At the moment, we view the government shutdown on October 1 as a high-probability event, likely lasting long enough to delay release of the September jobs [report] and, likely, [consumer-price index] releases, due out October 3 and 15, respectively,” Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in emailed comments.
Furthermore, Schlossberg suspects any government shutdown this time could produce more extensive disruptions to data releases than “the partial shutdown in December 2018-January 2019, because more agencies will be affected by the lack of appropriations bills passed by Congress this time.”
Without a stopgap budget, funding for federal government operations runs only through Sept. 30. After that, many operations and services would be halted.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that in the event of a government shutdown, it will suspend the collection, processing and dissemination of data until funding is restored. The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Schwab’s Gordon said the September jobs report — whenever it might arrive — is expected to reflect weakened government payrolls from workers who accepted buyouts earlier this year.
Read: How badly could mass layoffs during a government shutdown hurt the stock market? Here’s what experts say.
Major themes in the final days of September have been jitters around stock-market valuations; artificial-intelligence spending; and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comment during a speech that stocks are “fairly highly valued.”
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Some investors had been taking chips off the table when it comes to the highflying megacap technology stocks that are driving AI spending, while buying lagging sectors.
“They are taking gains and deploying them elsewhere,” said Gordon, pointing to energy stocks being the winner of the past week but lagging year to date. “That theme’s very much alive.”
As a proxy for megacap tech stocks, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven exchange-traded fund MAGS was up more than 19% on the year through Monday, despite logging a 1% weekly loss, according to FactSet data. The S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500.10 was off more than 2.2% on Monday but gained 4.7% in the past week, which trimmed its yearly gain to 5%.
Garrett Melson, a portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said he wasn’t surprised by the weekly pullback for stocks after a “really eye-watering run” lately, or by fresh scrutiny from investors around AI spending.
Yet Melson sees investors as ready to buy the dip if opportunities arise, which could mean only shallow pullbacks for stocks. But he has been monitoring weakness in the housing market more closely and thinks a lot will hinge on upcoming economic-data releases, since the economic backdrop looks “more cautious, but not terrible.”
Schlossberg at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute argued that stocks and bonds during the longer government shutdowns of 2013 and at the end of 2018 were “largely reversed even before the government reopened as attention shifted to other market movers.”
He added: “We view the situation as likely to be little different this time, despite a more deeply divided Congress.”
Stocks were mixed Monday, after the S&P 500 SPX shed 0.3% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed 0.2% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP fell 0.7%. The S&P 500’s gain so far in September was 3%, while the Dow was 1.4% higher and the Nasdaq was up 5.3%.
On deck for Monday and Tuesday are a host of Fed speakers, housing data, a read on consumer confidence and job openings. There’s more on the economic calendar for release later in the week, but Polymarket had the chances of an Oct. 1 government shutdown at about 74%, at last check.
Related: September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Why this time could be different.
Robert Schroeder contributed.
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