Argentina's soy exports to China soar amid US bailout, fuelling tensions in Trump camp
Argentina's soybean export orders surged to a seven-year high this month as Chinese importers bought millions of tonnes of the staple crop during a brief suspension of export taxes, securing more than half of their near-term needs from South America.
The rush of orders has rattled the Trump administration, where divisions are deepening over Argentine President Javier Milei's closer ties with Beijing and what many Republicans see as a direct blow to American farmers.
Friction over the latest orders became apparent when a photographer captured US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reading a text message that referenced the transactions during the UN General Assembly in New York. The image has been all over the news in Argentina in recent days.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
The message, which is assumed to have been forwarded by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins because it is signed "BR", carried the words of Iowa grain trader Ben Scholl, who was furious about Washington's financial support for Buenos Aires.
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent presents an award to the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, at the Global Citizen Awards in New York last week. Photo: AP alt=US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent presents an award to the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, at the Global Citizen Awards in New York last week. Photo: AP>
"Just a heads up. I am getting more intel, but this is highly unfortunate. We bailed out Argentina yesterday and in return, Argentina removed their export tariffs on grains, reducing their price to China at a time when we would normally be selling to China," the message read.
"Soy prices are dropping further because of it. This gives China more leverage on us."
The image, distributed by AP and later by Argentine media, showed a meeting in New York between US President Donald Trump and his counterpart, Javier Milei, to offer a financial lifeline, while also exposing dissent within Trump's cabinet over the decision to support the crisis-hit South American economy.
Last week, the Trump administration agreed to provide Argentina with a $20 billion financial package aimed at stabilising the peso and shoring up reserves.
As reported by The Post on Friday, however, the flow of American funds would be tied to cutting financial ties with Beijing, including dismantling Buenos Aires' $18 billion currency swap line with China.
Washington has long viewed the swap as a strategic risk, saying it gives Beijing leverage over Argentina's reserves and extends Chinese influence in South America.
But days before the meeting between Trump and Milei, Buenos Aires temporarily suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and by-products in an effort to accelerate foreign sales and capture hard currency amid peso weakness.
Levies that had reached as high as 26 per cent on soybeans and 24.5 per cent on soybean oil and meal were cut to zero, triggering US$7 billion in declared sales within just two days.
US President Donald Trump's administration agreed to provide Argentina with a $20 billion financial package last week. Photo: DPA alt=US President Donald Trump's administration agreed to provide Argentina with a $20 billion financial package last week. Photo: DPA>
As reported by Reuters last week, around 40 cargoes of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December during a suspension of export taxes, most bound for China.
A total of 2.66 million tonnes was booked for those two months, representing more than 50 per cent of grain reserved during the tax-free window.
As a result, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade extended their decline for a second week on Friday as news of the Chinese purchases filtered through global markets.
The most-active contract fell 1.5 per cent to $10.10 a bushel, pressured both by Argentina's sudden export surge and the absence of Chinese buyers in the US market. Corn and wheat also slid, although analysts noted strong American export sales for maize.
The price decline has added pressure on producers in the Midwest, who form a key part of Trump's electoral base ahead of the 2026 midterms. Farmers in Indiana and Minnesota have already voiced alarm at shrinking sales, warning that federal subsidies cannot replace access to China's demand.
The trend has been evident since August, when traders reported that China had already booked 12 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina for September and October.
Those early purchases represented about half of China's demand for the period, effectively shutting US exporters out of their most lucrative selling window. With the American harvest advancing, bins are filling while ships to Asia remain scarce.
Last year, China imported 105 million tonnes of soybeans, including more than 22 million from the US. This season, traders said Beijing may rely almost entirely on South America until Brazil's next crop comes to market in early 2026.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.