Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures stall as hopes for a last-gasp shutdown reprieve fade

US stock futures faltered on Tuesday as investors weighed the likely fallout of President Trump's latest tariff blitz, with the US government on the brink of a shutdown.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) and on the S&P 500 (ES=F) both dropped roughly 0.2%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also slipped about 0.2%, on the heels of modest closing gains on Wall Street.

Trump sent out a fresh flurry of tariffs late Monday, putting a 10% rate on imports of lumber and timber, and hitting certain wood-based furniture with initial levies of 25%. The latest push follows threats of tariffs on foreign-made movies on Monday, as well as last week's 100% duties on branded pharmaceutical imports.

Meanwhile, markets are bracing for a government shutdown after Trump and Republicans met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday, but failed to strike a deal to avert a halt to funding. "I think we're headed to a shutdown," Vice President JD Vance said after the meeting.

Lawmakers have until one minute after midnight Tuesday ET to reach a last-gasp agreement or the first stoppage since 2019 could begin. Odds of a shutdown are near 85%, according to Polymarket.

For Wall Street, the concern is that the government's economic data releases will halt during a stoppage. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will "completely cease operations" if it happens, the Department of Labor said, likely delaying the release of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report among other top-tier data.

That September jobs report is pivotal to the Federal Reserve's policy thinking, with the health of the labor market in high focus after mixed economic readings and apparent division at the Fed shook faith in two more rate cuts this year.

A JOLTS update on September job openings due later Tuesday will be closely watched, as it could be the last labor market insight from BLS for some time. Data on consumer confidence is also on the docket.

Looking forward, Nike (NKE) is expected to report earnings after the bell.

Economic data: FHFA house price index (July); MNI Chicago PMI (September); JOLTS job openings (August); Conference Board consumer confidence (September); Dallas Fed services activity (September)

Earnings calendar: Nike (NKE), Paychex (PAYX), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:

The 3 areas where a shutdown will hit fast

Trump sets out lumber tariffs in blow to Canada

Budget hotels squeezed by shaky economy

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says US job market weakening

Google to pay $24.5 million to end Trump suit over Jan. 6 ban

OpenAI revenue rises to $4.3 billion in first half: Report

Trump to keep tariff probes running through government shutdown

Trump team eyes Wall Street tool to add clout in vital minerals

Gold slips as traders take stock of record-breaking rally

NBCUniversal-YouTube fight shows streaming's new power struggle

China bans all BHP iron ore cargoes

\\"I think we're headed to a shutdown,\\" Vice President JD Vance said overnight, as both sides left an Oval Office meeting saying no deal is in the immediate offing.

The lack of progress boosts the odds of the first government stoppage since 2019, which could begin one minute after midnight on Tuesday, unless a last-minute deal is struck.

Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul lays out the likely fallout:

Such a stalemate could produce unpredictable economic impacts, some of which could be felt quickly and others that could grow with each passing day.

Some effects are already in evidence in currency markets, but much of the market focus for now is on the government’s economic data, which will cease being published and gathered if a stoppage goes forward.

That comes as both investors and the central bankers at the Federal Reserve are looking for all the information they can get about both the slowing labor market and persistent inflation ahead of another policy meeting in October. ...

Here [are] three areas where a shutdown could be noticed quickly:

Delayed (and then potentially less fulsome) economic data

Fear of new layoffs among the government's workforce

Uncertainty at airports and other scattered shutdown effects

Read more here.

Here's a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:

Wolfspeed (WOLF) stock soared over % in premarket trading on Tuesday after the chipmaker said it had exited a Chapter 11 bankruptcy after cutting its total debt by almost 70%.

Intel (INTC) stock fell 2% before the bell on Tuesday after surging over 20% during last weeks trading. Intel seeking investment from Apple (AAPL) had sent the chipmakers stock up.

Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares fell 3% premarket after announcing a change to their leadership on Monday, with the exit of Newmont’s CEO Tom Palmer on Dec. 31.

Google-owned YouTube has agreed to pay $24.5 million to settle a lawsuit filed by President Trump, after he was suspended from the video platform following the Jan. 6, 2021 riot.

Shares in parent company Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) were little changed in premarket trading after the deal was disclosed on Monday.

The settlement resolves Trump's claim that the banishment from his channel amounted to illegal censorship.

It also makes Google's YouTube the last of the three social-media giants sued by Trump to settle over Jan. 6 bans. Meta (META) agreed to pay $25 million to end a Facebook-related suit in January, while X laid out about $10 million in February over a Twitter suspension, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Bloomberg reports:

When Trump separately sued Google, Facebook and Twitter over his deplatforming, he sought monetary damages to punish the companies and ensure other users can’t be banned or flagged by the tech giants. All three companies eventually dropped the bans, but by then Trump had largely shifted his social media commentary to his own network, Truth Social.

He went on to lose his case against Twitter in a trial court, with a San Francisco federal judge ruling in 2021 that the company didn’t trample constitutional free-speech rights when it suspended his account and those of other users for violations of its terms of service. Trump’s appeal was still pending when a settlement was reached.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Gold (GC=F) rose to another record, extending Monday’s surge as the prospect of a looming US government shutdown clouded the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path ahead of next month’s interest-rate decision.

Bullion gained as much as 0.9% to an all-time $3,867.25 an ounce, eclipsing the peak reached in the previous session when it closed up 2%. A meeting between top congressional leaders and President Donald Trump ended without a deal on the government’s short-term funding. That’s fanned fears of a shutdown, which could hinder the release of economic reports — depriving investors of crucial data needed to assess the US economy.

Read more here.

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