In mid-September, Tennessee businessman Greg Asadourian received a document from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security that he had been dreading since April. His regular shipment of materials from China entered the country, and this time, the total price included an 80% tariff charge tacked on top.

President Donald Trump launched a global trade war in February. Since then, dozens of tariffs have been threatened, implemented, delayed and changed, ushering in an environment of economic uncertainty for business owners who don’t know what to expect next.

Trump said the goal of heavy tariffs is to incentivize businesses and individuals to buy American-made goods. He is also leveraging the duties to negotiate with foreign leaders to lower their tariffs on American goods.

“We will take in trillions and trillions of dollars and create jobs like we have never seen before,” Trump said to Congress before implementing the first round of tariff hikes. “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again.”

Economists like those at Middle Tennessee State University's Business and Economic Research Center have warned about immediate negative consequences tariffs could have for Tennessee’s economy. Now, business leaders said they are being hit with delayed tariff impacts after exhausting their inventories.

“I anticipated some really shocking Chinese tariff invoices early on, but those never happened,” said Asadourian, who is president and general manager of custom transportation equipment manufacturer Allvan. “But everything is in effect now. We placed these orders months ago, and they’re showing up with a 25% to 80% tariff.”

Asadourian serves as president and general manager of Allvan, a van and truck manufacturer based in La Vergne. He estimated that about 5% of Allvan’s production materials are shipped in from outside of the U.S., while the vast majority are sourced from Tennessee.

The invoice that sent him into a panic arrived on Sept. 17. For a purchase order of $14,413, Allvan had to pay $11,977 in tariffs. In a different order, a steel company has begun pre-charging Allvan in preparation to pay tariffs months early.

Moreover, one of only four aluminum factories in the U.S. recently caught fire, and Asadourian said he is among hundreds of business owners scrambling to find a replacement supplier.

“But the world marketplace is off limits,” Asadourian said. “For the little amount that we buy offshore, it’s becoming a lot to manage, and it’s not China paying for these tariffs, it’s me.”

The University of Tennessee Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research recently released its semi-annual survey of business leaders in the state. It found that only 24% of respondents said they were not being impacted by tariffs.

Over 75% of respondents said they are experiencing negative effects, and half of respondents said they are passing off the burden of cost onto their customers.

"The bottom line is that we're now seeing the tariffs in the prices of the things that we buy," Boyd Center Director Don Bruce said. "It has taken a little bit of time to get to the point where the tariffs are final, but now they've been imposed for a couple months, and they're starting to show up for customers in the store."

Bruce said business owners have a few options on how to manage tariffs besides upping the price of goods. Those include paying the cost out of pocket and pushing back on the foreign supplier by arguing that they should be paying a lower price because of the tariffs.

"The administration was very vocal about preferring that companies not pass those costs onto their customers," Bruce said. "Now we're seeing companies that depend heavily on the international markets have no choice."

He also noted that, so far, customers have been willing and able to bear the price hikes.

Boyd Center tariffs

Food prices at grocery stores rose 0.6% from July to August, according to the latest consumer price index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That marks the fastest monthly rate change for groceries since October 2022.

While factors like inflation and supply chain management also play a role in rising grocery prices, tariffs are having significant impacts on certain goods.

Virtually all coffee prices have increased, mostly for beans coming from Columbia, Ethiopia and Brazil. A drought in Brazil has also contributed to rising costs. The country provides roughly 30% of the U.S. coffee supply, and it is also subject to a 50% tariff.

On August 1, new tariffs were placed on more than 90 countries, including for many wine and spirits. The industry is preparing for price surges in the coming weeks.

Also, food items shipped from China and subject to price increases because of tariffs include fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, apple juice, garlic spices, tea and shrimp.

Despite consumer prices and the cost of doing business rising, Tennessee business leaders are still widely optimistic about the state's economy and its ability to outperform the U.S. economy.

Most survey respondents — 69% —told the Boyd Center that they believe Tennessee is headed in the right direction. They named strong business investment and government leadership as the primary reasons they believeTennessee will grow faster than the nation.

"We've attracted a large number of new businesses and new residents to the state over the last five to 10 years," Bruce said. "There's no sign of that changing in the near future."

Hadley Hitson covers business news for The Tennessean. She can be reached at hhitson@gannett.com. To support her work, subscribe to The Tennessean.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Why are grocery prices climbing again in Tennessee? Coffee, wine, more