Most Americans would probably like to see lower mortgage rates these days. And while the president certainly has a lot of power, even he can’t snap his fingers and make mortgages cheaper for today’s borrowers. What can the president do about mortgage rates, though? Here’s how who’s in office could impact what you pay for a mortgage loan.

Read more: The best mortgage lenders for first-time home buyers

The president of the United States doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. They don’t have the authority to set industrywide interest rates, nor can they legally require lenders to set their rates in a certain manner.

The president does, however, influence rates to some extent. Their appointees, policies, and public statements can affect the 10-year Treasury yield, and mortgage rate trends tend to follow the 10-year yield. They also have a hand in policies that can impact the costs lenders face, and their decisions influence economic factors such as inflation, labor, housing, taxation, and Federal Reserve decisions, among others — all of which play into the interest rates paid by consumers.

The Federal Reserve plays a big role in interest rates. The federal funds rate — which is the rate banks pay to borrow money from each other — is the foundation on which most consumer interest rates are based.

Just think: If a bank is paying more to borrow money, they’ll need to charge customers more as well. Therefore, when the Fed increases its federal funds rate, the rate on most consumer products also tends to rise. When it falls, consumer rates — including mortgage rates — often follow suit.

(Lately, this effect is seen in the weeks preceding an anticipated Fed rate cut, with mortgage rates falling in anticipation of a lower Fed rate, not necessarily after.)

How exactly does the president play a role in all this, though? First, the president nominates the Fed’s chair — the person who reports to Congress on behalf of the Fed, meets with the Treasury secretary, and provides post-meeting commentary to the public. They also nominate the members of the Fed’s Board of Governors.

Both parties play a significant role in shaping the Fed's actions and policies. Although the Senate must ultimately confirm the president’s nominations, it does grant the sitting president some influence over interest rates.

Learn more: How does the Federal Reserve rate decision impact mortgage rates?

Another significant influencer on mortgage rates is the 10-year Treasury yield, which represents the rate at which 10-year Treasury bonds are being paid to investors. Long-term mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so when the Treasury yield is up, mortgage rates typically also rise. When the yield falls, so do rates.

As with the fed funds rate, the president doesn’t directly influence the Treasury yield. However, the moves made by their Fed appointees, as well as their own public statements, remarks, and policy priorities, do factor in.

Why? Because all of these can heavily influence investor sentiment. For example, if investors fear economic trouble is brewing, they’ll be more tempted to buy into the safety of government bonds, which sends demand for Treasurys up and yields down.

A more stable economy and strong feelings of financial security can have the opposite effect, drawing investors away from Treasurys and into riskier investments. Treasury rates then rise to attract more investment.

The president’s economic policies also have the power to impact the mortgage rates you see. Tax cuts (or increases), for example, affect the amount of pocket money Americans have and, therefore, how much they can contribute to the economy. This directly contributes to inflation and the Fed’s decisions about interest rates.

Other economic policies, such as tariffs, come into play, as they influence the prices consumers pay for various goods and services and, as a result, Americans’ spending and the U.S. inflation rate.

Generally speaking, when inflation is high, the Fed tends to increase rates to tamp down economic activity. When it’s low, it may opt for rate cuts instead. This keeps consumers borrowing and money flowing into the economy.

Dig deeper: How inflation affects mortgage rates

Policies that impact home prices, housing, or supply and demand are another way the president can have a hand in mortgage rates.

Typically, when home buyer demand or housing prices are high, mortgage lenders increase the rates they charge customers. When demand is low or supply is oversaturated, they may lower rates to drum up more business.

Potential policies that could impact supply and demand include:

Tariffs, as they impact the costs home builders face for materials

Homebuilding initiatives, such as former President Biden’s Housing Supply Action Plan

Homebuying incentives, like the proposed First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit

Affordable housing initiatives, which impact what buyers pay for their homes

Even seemingly unrelated policies can impact the housing industry and indirectly affect mortgage rates. Immigration policies, for example, can have a trickle-down effect, particularly if they significantly impact the availability or cost of labor for homebuilders.

Despite recent declines, most buyers and refinancers would probably like to see mortgage rates creep a little lower. Fortunately, waiting for policy changes or Federal Reserve moves isn’t your only option.

In fact, there are several strategies you can use to get a lower mortgage rate all on your own. Here are some options:

Increase your credit score: Mortgage lenders usually reward higher credit scores with better interest rates, because a high score communicates that you’re more likely to make your payments. To improve your score, pay down your debts, make on-time bill payments, and keep your oldest accounts open to increase your credit age.

Buy discount points: Buying mortgage discount points essentially means purchasing a rate reduction. You pay a set fee per “point” at closing, which directly lowers your mortgage rate by a fractional amount. You’ll enjoy this lower rate for your entire loan term.

Consider a temporary rate buydown: This is similar to buying points, though the lower rate only lasts for a few years or less. You may receive a lower rate for the first one, two, or three years of the loan, after which your rate will revert to your originally quoted rate (or you can refinance). While you may have to pay for the buydown, this cost is often covered by the seller, lender, or homebuilder.

Shop for the best mortgage lender: Rates vary by mortgage lender, so be sure to obtain quotes from at least three or four lenders. According to Freddie Mac, getting quotes from at least four lenders can save you over $1,200 per year.

Making a larger down payment can also help you get a lower interest rate, but be careful about dipping too much into savings. You’ll want a solid emergency fund on hand to cover repairs and home maintenance needs as they arise.

Mortgage rates are determined by several factors, including Federal Reserve policy, inflation, the employment market, economic growth, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Your individual credit score, down payment, debts, and other financial factors also play a role.

Mortgage rates often drop when inflation falls, home-buying demand slows, the economy cools, or 10-year Treasury yields decline.

The 3% mortgage rates seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic were a result of extreme actions taken by the Federal Reserve, which lowered the federal funds rate to near zero to stimulate economic activity. Unless another economic crisis of this magnitude occurs, super-low rates like these are unlikely to be seen in the future.

Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.

Mortgage rates had decreased or held steady for nine straight weeks, but they’ve now increased for the second week in a row. In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate for the first time in 2025, and while people may have expected that cut to push rates farther down, the opposite has happened.So, where are home loan rates headed, and is it still a good time to buy a house?

Learn more: Why didn't mortgage rates fall after the Federal Reserve rate cut?

In this article:

Are mortgage rates dropping?

So, will mortgage rates go down even more this year?

Should you wait to buy until mortgage rates go down?

Strategies for buyers in today’s mortgage market

FAQs

As of Oct. 2, Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were 6.34%. The 30-year rate is also 22 basis points higher than it was this time last year. In early Oct. 2024, mortgage rates were averaging 6.12%.

This week’s 15-year fixed mortgage rate is up six basis points to 5.55%, which is 30 basis points higher than this time last year.

In situations like these, it pays to look at the numbers. Here’s the Freddie Mac data on mortgage rates for the past 52 weeks as of Oct. 2, 2025:

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 6.12% to 7.04%

15-year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.25% to 6.27%

If you just go by the numbers, rates on 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages are hovering between the highs and lows of the last 12 months

Dive deeper: Will mortgage rates go back up to 7%?

Now that the Federal Reserve has lowered the fed funds rate, why have mortgage rates ticked up? This is actually very similar to what happened last year when the Fed slashed its rate for the first time.

When the Fed — the common nickname for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — held its Sept. 2025 meeting, it voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The central bank had cut its rate three times at the end of 2024, but this was the first slash of 2025.

That federal funds rate tends to directly influence rates on shorter-term lending. While mortgage rates aren’t directly based on the fed funds rate, they typically mirror fed fund rate trends. So, if the fed funds rate goes down, mortgage rates will likely follow. The inverse is also true.

When people anticipate a fed funds rate cut, mortgage rates usually fall in the weeks leading up to the meeting. However, home loan rates don’t necessarily continue to decrease after a fed funds rate cut.

In 2024, mortgage rates plummeted throughout August and early September as people expected the Fed to lower its rate at the bank’s September meeting. But mortgage rates stopped decreasing significantly after this meeting — and after the two additional rate cuts later that year.

The same seems to have happened in 2025. Mortgage rates gradually declined in the weeks leading up to the September meeting when people expected the Fed to lower its rate, and even though the fed funds rate did go down, mortgage rates bounced back up.

Learn more: How the Fed rate decision impacts mortgage rates

While short-term lending rates closely follow the fed funds rate, mortgage rates more closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield. As of Sept. 30, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.16% — up from 3.81% a year prior.

You’re probably wondering why today’s mortgage rates aren’t in the 4% range, right?

To determine current mortgage rates, lenders add a “spread” to the 10-year Treasury yield. The spread is simply the difference between the rates consumers pay and the rate on the 10-year Treasury. Without getting too much into the weeds, charging a spread helps mortgage lenders cover costs associated with making loans to the public and the risk of providing such loans.

For example, the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.34%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.16% — a spread of 2.18%.

The 10-year yield has also increased since the Fed meeting, so it makes sense that mortgage rates are also going up.

Read more: When will mortgage rates finally go back down to 5%?

In short, no. You probably shouldn’t wait to buy a home until mortgage rates drop more drastically. Mortgage rates are just one part of the affordability equation. You also have to consider home prices, a factor of housing supply and demand.

The current housing market is in a crunch. To put it simply, buyers outnumber homes for sale, especially homes in price ranges accessible to the first-time home buyer. When supply and demand are out of balance like this, home prices tend to remain high since sellers know they’ll have multiple buyers interested.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median sale price of single-family homes has generally trended upward since Q1 of 2009. At that time, the median sale price was $208,400. The median price had risen to $410,800 by Q2 2025.

While recession speculation has recently increased, prospective buyers likely won’t see much relief in a true recession. If interest rates drop like they tend to do in recessions, that will increase the number of people looking to buy and lock in a lower interest rate. That drives up demand for the already limited supply of homes.

To truly save, buyers need both interest rates and home prices to drop. Mortgage rates are inching down this month, and housing prices are stagnant or even lowering in certain parts of the country. Still, rates are higher than they were this time last year, and prices are still increasing in many cities. Situations may be improving for buyers, but there’s a lot of work to be done.

Keep reading: Do mortgage rates go down in a recession?

If you crave the comforts of homeownership, the best strategy in today’s market may be to buy what you can afford. Whether that means a smaller house or a condo instead of a single-family home, owning something puts you in a position to start building equity.

Yes, shopping for the best mortgage lenders with low rates and fees is crucial when getting a mortgage. But to help you find your ideal home that balances affordability and desirability, it pays to adopt a curious mindset and consider lesser-discussed financial tools.

There’s no better time to learn more about your local real estate market than today. By adopting a sense of curiosity, you could discover that your city has more to offer housing-wise than you previously thought.

You may want to take weekend excursions to lesser-known neighborhoods and suburban developments beyond the city limits. You never know what you’ll find that could expand your idea of what “home” looks like — including new developments, school districts, and types of homes.

Learn more: This map shows average mortgage rates by state

If you’re looking to spend less on a home in today’s mortgage market, a house needing a bit of TLC could help you do just that. Loans like the FHA 203(k) mortgage can roll your purchase and renovation costs into one convenient loan. When you qualify and have an accepted offer, your lender immediately funds the home’s purchase price and puts the cost of renovations into an escrow account. As you make repairs, funds get dispersed.

How would it feel to have a longer commute yet come home to a house you love? Master-planned communities tend to crop up outside major cities, offering amenities like parks, shopping, and top-notch schools — all in exchange for a longer commute. These areas could look a lot more palatable if they offer commuting options like park-and-ride or commuter rail. Dare to consider parking the car and taking public transit if it could get you into the home of your dreams.

While shared walls, floors, and ceilings might not immediately scream “dream home,” they could help you find an affordable home in a terrific area. Condominiums come in various shapes and sizes, from apartment-style flats to townhomes. Depending on the area, you might even score a small backyard. However, be sure to consider HOA fees when calculating your monthly payment.

While the monthly payment on a 15-year mortgage will be higher than the typical 30-year, these loans have plenty of upsides. Not only will you pay off your home on a speedier timeline, but you’ll also likely score a lower interest rate and save a ton on interest over the life of your loan.

To make today’s mortgage rates more palatable, look into rate buydown options. An interest rate buydown lets you pay cash up front in exchange for a reduced interest rate on your mortgage. Buydowns can be permanent or temporary (for your loan's first one to three years, for example). Even a few years of lower rate relief can make today’s home prices more affordable.

Learn more: What will mortgage rates do over the next five years?

Expert opinions differ on what mortgage rates will do over the next year or so. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicted in its September forecast that the 30-year fixed rate would hit 6.5% by the end of 2025 and 6.4% in Q4 2026. However, the September Fannie Mae Housing Forecast was more optimistic. Fannie Mae predicted that rates will go down to 5.9% by the end of next year. Both forecasts put mortgage rates at above 6% throughout 2025, though.

Compared to historical mortgage rates, 7% isn’t considered a high rate. While it might be high compared to pandemic-era rates that were sub-3%, it’s on par with mortgage rates in the 1990s, and considerably lower than the double-digit rates seen in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

It’s not impossible to get a 3% interest rate, but doing so requires the perfect set of circumstances. You’d need to find a homeowner with an assumable mortgage — one that can be passed to a new owner at the same interest rate as the original loan. Assumable mortgages are generally government-backed loans from agencies like the VA, FHA, or USDA.

Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.

A poor credit score can make many financial transactions more difficult and expensive. However, with the right loan product and a knowledgeable mortgage lender, you probably have more mortgage options with a bad credit score than you’d imagine. Here are our top choices for mortgage lenders for borrowers with bad credit in October 2025.

Why PNC mortgages stand out: PNC is one of the best mortgage lenders out there for FHA loans, the leading loan choice for borrowers with lower credit scores.

Availability: All 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Types of low-credit-score loans: FHA, VA, and USDA.

Minimum credit scores: 600 for FHA, VA, and USDA loans.

Minimum down payments: 3.5% for FHA, 0% for VA, and 0% for USDA loans.

Not only is PNC a leading national FHA lender, it super-serves eligible households with grants from $10,000 to $15,000 that can be applied to FHA closing costs.

Ranks well for customer satisfaction according to the latest J.D. Power mortgage originator survey.

PNC makes getting a sample mortgage rate simple and useful. All you have to provide is a little information, and the results are not dependent on contact from a mortgage rep.

PNC's minimum credit score of 600 for an FHA loan is still relatively low, but it’s higher than the 580 minimum the FHA requires with a 3.5% down payment. Some lenders allow a FICO 500 with a 10% down payment.

PNC offered near-median mortgage rates to borrowers in 2025. Not high, but just run-of-the-mill.

Why Pennymac mortgages stand out: A top-five lender of VA loans by volume, Pennymac's low credit score requirement makes it even more competitive.

Availability: All 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Types of low-credit-score loans: FHA, VA, and USDA.

Minimum credit scores: 580 for FHA, 580 for VA purchase, 620 for VA cash-out refinances, no minimum for VA IRRLs, and 580 for USDA loans.

Minimum down payments: 3.5% for FHA, 0% for VA, and 0% for USDA loans.

The VA doesn’t set a minimum credit score for VA loans, but mortgage lenders do. Of the VA lenders we've reviewed, Pennymac has one of the lowest minimum credit requirements.

Pennymac offers a 1% buydown to reduce your interest rate for the first year of your loan, in addition to a $1,000 closing bonus.

With outstanding educational resources, it earns our highest rating in our Online Features category.

Pennymac had a well-below-average rating for customer satisfaction, according to the 2024 J.D. Power Mortgage Origination Satisfaction Study.

Why Rate mortgages stand out: Allowing a slightly higher debt-to-income ratio than other lenders in this category, Rate (previously Guaranteed Rate) gives a break to modest-income households.

Availability: All 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Types of low-credit-score loans: FHA, VA, USDA, and non-qualified mortgages.

Minimum credit scores: 550 for FHA, no minimum for VA, 620 for USDA, and not specified for non-qualified loans.

Minimum down payments: 3.5% for FHA, 0% for VA, 0% for USDA, and not specified for non-qualified loans.

In 2024, Rate allowed the highest median debt-to-income ratio (46%) among Yahoo Finance's best-rated FHA lenders. That debt flexibility gives borrowers more leeway.

For face-to-face service, Rate has hundreds of branch locations.

According to a Yahoo Finance analysis, Rate offered higher-than-median interest rates and loan costs to borrowers in 2024.

Rate has a below-average score for customer satisfaction, according to J.D. Power.

Why Guild Mortgage stands out: Prospective home buyers without a credit score or with a thin credit file may qualify with rent, utilities, and car insurance payment histories.

Availability: 49 states (excluding New York) and Washington, D.C.

Types of low-credit-score loans: FHA, VA, USDA, and the Complete Rate program.

Minimum credit scores: 540 for FHA, 540 for VA, 540 for USDA, and no credit score for the Complete Rate program.

Minimum down payments: 3.5% for FHA, 0% for VA, 0% for USDA, and varied by loan type for the Complete Rate program.

Guild accepts alternative forms of credit from home buyers who don’t have a credit score. The Complete Rate program uses a review of bank deposits and payment histories from rent, car insurance, and utilities.

The Complete Rate program applies to multiple types of mortgages, including FHA, VA, and USDA loans.

The MyPath2Own program helps first-time home buyers who can't yet qualify to buy because of credit or debt issues become "mortgage ready" with education and down payment assistance.

Guild Mortgage falls short in customer satisfaction, with a below-average rating by J.D. Power.

Guild offered below-median interest rates and well-above-median loan costs to borrowers in 2024.

Why Rocket Mortgages stand out: Always an innovator, Rocket's new RentRewards program provides a financial lift to renters looking to buy.

Availability: All 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Types of low-credit-score loans: FHA and VA.

Minimum credit scores: 580 for FHA, and 580 for VA loans.

Minimum down payments: 3.5% for FHA, and 0% for VA loans.

Rocket Mortgage's RentRewards program offers savings up to $5,000 on closing costs, based on 10% of the annual rent you pay.

Rocket is straightforward about the credit scores it accepts for each type of mortgage loan. Some lenders don't even disclose the credit scores they are willing to consider.

Rocket ranks above average in customer satisfaction, according to the latest J.D. Power Mortgage Origination Satisfaction Study.

In 2024, Rocket offered median interest rates but much higher-than-median loan costs.

Sample mortgage rates are reduced with up to two discount points.

Read our complete Rocket Mortgage review.

Why New American Funding stands out: New American Funding caters to underserved households. One major way it does this is by offering non-qualified mortgages to borrowers with histories of foreclosures or bankruptcies, events that can bring down your score for years.

Availability: All 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

Types of low-credit-score loans: FHA, VA, USDA, and non-qualified mortgages.

Minimum credit scores: 580 for FHA, 580 for VA, 580 for USDA, and 620 for non-qualified mortgages.

Minimum down payments: 3.5% for FHA, 0% for VA, 0% USDA, and unspecified for non-qualified mortgages.

NAF uses non-qualified mortgages to help borrowers with recent foreclosures or bankruptcies secure a mortgage.

The lender sponsors Black and Latino programs to encourage and facilitate homeownership.

Advertising rates are impressively low when compared to market averages. We found the reason why: The website displays mortgage rates that are lowered with three discount points. Discount points should be a borrower's option, not a lender's promotion.

In an article on qualifying for a loan, an NAF representative says, "If you have a lower credit score, try first to get over 580, which is the bare minimum for an FHA loan." That may be the case with New American Funding, but some lenders accept a FICO 500 with a 10% down payment on an FHA loan.

The very minimum credit score to buy a house is a FICO 500. That's for an FHA loan with 10% down. If you can only put together a 3.5% down payment with an FHA loan, you'll need a 580 or higher. To have more loan options and perhaps a better mortgage rate, a credit score of 620 is required.

For most Americans of modest means, the best loan program is a mortgage insured by the FHA. With easier credit hurdles and built-in low down payments, FHA loans have helped millions of borrowers with credit issues buy a home.

If you have a military connection, you should look into a VA mortgage. Backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs, VA loans usually require no down payment and have flexible credit qualifications.

USDA loans can be a good choice for aspiring homeowners with bad credit who are looking in rural and suburban areas. USDA loans are aimed at low- and moderate-income households and have lenient credit score minimums.

It takes time to improve your credit score, so there are no shortcuts. Some tried-and-true methods include:

Reduce the debt you owe. Aim to use no more than 30% of your available limit on credit cards.

Pay on time; in fact, pay more often. Making more than one payment a month on your debt may seem impossible, but even if you pay the same amount but make one payment early and another on time, you'll reduce your balance faster and pay less interest.

Don't apply for any new accounts. Each credit inquiry can cause your credit score to dip a little.

Check your credit report at least annually. Look for lingering errors.

Track your credit score. Enjoy the steady progress and gamify the process.

One downside of having bad credit: Mortgage lenders price in the risk they're taking with a higher interest rate. That's why talking to more than one lender is so important. Each mortgage provider has its own lending and pricing procedures. One lender may want your business more than another and offer you a better mortgage rate.

A score below 620 is the dividing line between a conventional loan and most government home loans. FHA loans can serve borrowers with credit scores as low as 500. The higher your score and the greater your down payment, the better your loan terms will likely be.

Yes. In addition to a higher mortgage interest rate, you will likely pay more in mortgage insurance and perhaps additional closing costs.

Yes. Many lenders work with state and local housing assistance programs to obtain grants, vouchers, and other concessions for borrowers with bad credit. Ask each lender you speak to how they can help you find assistance programs. You can also use this NCHSA tool to find housing assistance and finance agencies near you.

Yes, it’s possible to buy a house with a 500 credit score. You can qualify for an FHA loan with a score as low as 500 — but you must have a 10% down payment. Otherwise, FHA loans require a 580 credit score with a 3.5% down payment.

Yahoo Finance reviews mortgage lenders based on five primary considerations: 1) Interest rates. Using 2024 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data from almost 5,000 mortgage companies, we analyze mortgage lenders based on issued mortgage rates below or above the annual median of reporting lenders. 2) Affordability. A measure of loan product availability and the willingness of a lender to offer government-backed loans, low down payments, down payment assistance, and consideration of nontraditional credit. 3) Loan costs. HMDA data is again analyzed, and total loan costs are compared to the annual median. 4) Rate transparency. The ability of a website user to obtain a mortgage interest rate estimate. We also consider whether rates are enhanced with discount points or high credit score requirements, disclaimers revealing rate assumptions, sample advertised rates, and whether adjustable or no discount point rate estimates are available. 5) Online features. An analysis of the educational material, calculators, and additional resources available to users.

Advertisers or sponsorships do not influence ratings.

Editorial disclosure for mortgages:

The information in this article has not been reviewed or approved by any advertiser. The details on financial products, including interest rates and fees, are accurate as of the publish date. All products or services are presented without warranty. Check the lender's website for the most current information. This site doesn't include all currently available offers.

Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.

We've heard it before: Bad news for the economy can be good news for mortgage rates. With the government shutdown underway — along with a surprise payroll report and the possibility of an extended standoff in Washington — the 10-year Treasury yield has been declining. Here's what that means for mortgage rates.

Dig deeper: How the government shutdown impacts your money, from loans to Social Security

The 10-year Treasury note, a debt instrument issued by the U.S. government, moves in tandem with mortgage rates, with a roughly two-percentage-point spread between them. For example, if the 10-year yield is near 4%, mortgage rates will likely be near or slightly above 6%.

Chris Whalen is the chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and an investment banker focusing on mortgage finance and financial services.

"The 10-year gets pulled down for a lot of reasons, some because of the friction like government shutdowns," Whalen told Yahoo Finance in an email. Mortgage rates have been falling since July, he said, but have recently eased higher. "But that was all done by aggressive lenders, not markets."

Whalen isn't expecting anything drastic to happen in the mortgage markets during the shutdown. He believes the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will stop processing certain new loans, which will create delays in financing — but that's about it.

However, Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp believes a government shutdown can shape investor sentiment and limit access to key economic data — the result: possible lower mortgage rates.

"When shutdowns occur, investors typically flock to Treasury securities, which pushes their yields down and can result in slightly lower mortgage rates — usually a drop of about 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points,” Hepp told Yahoo Finance via email. “For instance, if the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting at 6.375%, it might fall to around 6.125% during the shutdown."

Dr. Hepp admitted that other market factors can alter those expectations, including the interruption of vital economic reports the Federal Reserve counts on to set monetary policy, such as gauges of employment and inflation.

With so many variables in play — the economy, a transitioning housing market, and the length of time the shutdown remains in effect — it's hard to predict how the bond market will react.

Learn more: How are mortgage rates determined?

After the government shutdown is over, the nation will still face growing economic uncertainty.

Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Yahoo Finance via email that ADP's report indicating 32,000 job losses in September amplifies concerns about a weakening job market.

"And this is particularly the case as we are unlikely to get BLS job market numbers, given the shutdown, so the ADP number increases in importance," Fratantoni added.

Realtor.com's Chief Economist Danielle Hale has predicted that mortgage rates will continue a slow drift downward following the government shutdown, though there are many variables impacting that forecast.

Her colleague has highlighted the difficulties in the housing market.

"A government shutdown adds uncertainty into a housing market that is already under pressure from high home prices and elevated mortgage rates," Anthony Smith, Realtor.com's senior economist, said in an analysis.

"Anything that further discourages prospective buyers from entering the market and risks slowing sales even more in a slow housing market is not helpful," he added.

Fratantoni noted that the bond market continues to "bounce back and forth between being more focused on the job market versus inflation. Both metrics are bad news lately, but they push rates in opposite directions."

However, watching the bond market will provide a clue to the direction of mortgage rates, he added. "Lower 10-year Treasury rates typically do lead to lower mortgage rates.”

Read more: How to get the lowest mortgage rate possible

If, after diligently shopping for a mortgage lender, you're poised and preapproved to buy a house, locking in your mortgage rate on a dip is always the goal.

However, it’s difficult to lock in a mortgage rate when they’re down because rates vary by the hour. Once you hear of a lower mortgage rate, the chance to lock it in may have already passed.

It's not worth the stress to improve your interest rate by a couple of basis points, or worth the worry if your rate rose by some incremental amount.

However, if you have a longer runway before landing a home, understanding mortgage rate trends can be very helpful. Tracking 10-year Treasury yields can help.

Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.