Tories vs Reform: How the parties stack up on the economy

The time has come for the Conservatives to seize the initiative on economic policy – or so Kemi Badenoch hopes.

The Tory leader used her Party Conference speech to promise to scrap stamp duty and unveiled a “golden rule” that she argued would help to fix Britain’s public finances.

It followed months of Reform UK largely setting the political agenda, leaving the Conservatives languishing in the polls.

Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves has been focused on next month’s Budget and ways to plug a black hole in the public finances, which is thought to be in the region of £30bn.

The economy will be a key battleground at the next election, and Ms Badenoch is hoping to put clear blue water between the Tories and Reform – the party most likely to challenge for winnable votes.

Most eye-catchingly, the Tory leader has vowed to axe stamp duty on the purchases of primary residences.

The hated levy raises more than £15bn per year for the Treasury, and axing it for main homes would cost the Exchequer £9bn in lost revenues.

Yet there may also be economic benefits. The tax bungs up the housing market and weighs down the entire economy by making it harder for people to move where jobs are.

It is also likely to be a popular. Stamp duty costs families tens of thousands of pounds when they move and the Conservative leader said the tax was “a big barrier that keeps getting in the way” of home ownership.

“Young people trapped in the pain of renting. Workers who want to further their career. Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax,” she said, citing the tax’s ill effects.

“The next Conservative government will abolish stamp duty on your home. It will be gone. That is how we will help achieve the dream of home ownership for millions.”

Her pledge won a cheer from the party faithful gathered in Manchester.

Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, beefed up the appeal to aspiring young homeowners with a new “first job bonus” – a promise to give workers a £5,000 tax rebate when they get their first job, which can then be put towards buying their first home.

Importantly, the stamp duty policy goes further than Reform.

In its manifesto last year, the insurgent party proposed cutting stamp duty to zero on homes bought for less than £750,000, but only cutting it to 2pc for those up to £1.5m and 4pc above that threshold.

Currently the tax starts at 2pc on the purchase of homes worth more than £125,000, rising in steps to 12pc for those over £1.5m.

It is not the only tax cut the Conservatives have promised. The party has also vowed to reverse Labour’s 20pc tax on private school fees and restore the VAT exemption on education.

Here, however, there is less distance with its arch rival – as Reform has also pledged to do the same.

There is common ground on inheritance tax too. Both parties have promised to scrap Labour’s imposition of IHT on family farms, restoring the agricultural property relief and business property relief.

And if you want to gaze further into the hall of mirrors of Right-wing tax policies, each party has also proposed ways to cut the burden of business rates on the high street.

In fact, beyond stamp duty voters could be forgiven if they struggle to squeeze one of Nigel Farage’s cigarette papers between the two parties’ positions when it comes to tax.

Both have also vowed to slash green levies, with the Conservatives promising £1.6bn of “carbon tax” cuts and Reform calling for the end of “net zero madness”.

However,  Farage’s party is hoping to raise much more than the Tories, vowing to save tens of billions of pounds by scrapping net zero-related projects and subsidies for low-carbon energy developments.

In other areas there is more distance between the two. In fact, some of Reform’s policies look a touch Left-wing.

Farage has pledged to nationalise half of Britain’s water industry, undoing one of Margaret Thatcher’s landmark privatisations.

Reform has also promised to increase one high-profile element of welfare spending by scrapping the two-child benefit cap.

Banks would take a beating under the upstart party’s plans too.

Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, wants the Bank of England to slash interest payments made to commercial banks on the reserves held at the central bank.

The policy is a legacy of the Bank’s support for the economy during the financial crisis and pandemic, and Tice argues it should never have been allowed to happen.

The Conservatives have largely steered clear of endorsing the policy.

Meanwhile, the Tories have sought to take the fight to Reform over small boats – with an £820m “removals force” to deport illegal immigrants.

Few of these promises come cheap. In total the Tories have announced spending and tax cut plans totalling £21.1bn.

But Badenoch is also seeking to paint the Conservatives as the fiscally responsible party in comparison with Reform.

Under her “fiscally prudent” new “golden economic rule”, a Conservative government would put at least half of any savings found through spending cuts towards reducing the deficit.

The party has outlined spending cuts totalling £46.9bn – giving it ample room to pay for the policies so far announced and meet the new rule.

Half of the proposed spending cuts comes from benefits, with the civil service, overseas aid and asylum budgets also lined up for a trim.

Reform hopes to save as much as £40bn by stemming payments to the Bank of England and another £50bn through an across the board efficiency programme for Government departments.

But one notable point of expenditure is missing from both parties plans – pensions.

Pensioner spending is set to rise from £141.9bn in 2023-24 to £181.8bn by the final year of this decade, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. The triple lock is a big factor pushing up the bill – and the Conservatives know it.

Stride said last year that the promise to increase the state pension by the highest of inflation, average earnings or 2.5pc each year is “in the very, very long term… unsustainable”. But Her Majesty’s Opposition has not yet said it would scrap the triple lock.

Nigel Farage has not committed to keeping the triple lock, but nor has he promised to axe the policy. What he has done is say the state pension age will have to rise, proposing tying it to rising life expectancies.

Still, it suggests neither party is quite ready to take the toughest decisions to keep a lid on spiralling spending.

After all, big tax cuts are a more attractive weapon than slashing pension payouts when it comes to the battle for voters’ affections.

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