If you’re trying to figure out whether to get in or stay in with ING Groep, you’re definitely not alone. Investors have been watching the upward climb, sometimes with scepticism but also quite a bit of intrigue. Over the past five years, ING Groep has delivered a remarkable 365.3% total return, and in the past year alone, shares are up 41.3%. Even after pulling back by 2.3% over the last month, ING Groep’s stock price remains close to multi-year highs, buoyed by broader optimism across European financials and shifting expectations around interest rates and economic stability. Recent market sentiment is less about panic and more about recalibrating what kind of growth ING Groep can deliver in a changing landscape.

So, is ING Groep’s share price getting ahead of itself, or could it still be undervalued? Our value score gives ING Groep a 3 out of 6, a sign that according to some widely used checks, it stands as undervalued in half of the most common metrics. In other words, there may still be room to grow, but some valuation signals are flashing amber. Let’s break down how these valuation approaches work for ING Groep, and stick around, because just relying on a checklist might miss the bigger picture of what the company is really worth.

Why ING Groep is lagging behind its peers

The Excess Returns valuation model assesses whether a company is creating value for shareholders by comparing its returns on invested equity to the overall cost of that equity. In simpler terms, it reveals whether ING Groep generates more profit from its investments than what it costs to raise the capital needed for those investments.

For ING Groep, the numbers show the following:

Book Value: €17.36 per share

Stable EPS: €2.33 per share (based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 13 analysts)

Cost of Equity: €1.12 per share

Excess Return: €1.21 per share

Average Return on Equity: 13.07%

Stable Book Value: €17.80 per share (from 9 analyst estimates)

This approach results in an intrinsic value estimate that is 51.7% higher than ING Groep’s current share price. This means the stock appears significantly undervalued by this measure. According to this analysis, ING Groep’s ability to deliver returns above its cost of capital suggests strong profitability and further headroom for growth. With the intrinsic value calculated considerably above current trading levels, there is a clear signal of potential upside.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ING Groep.

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests ING Groep is undervalued by 51.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a go-to valuation tool for profitable companies like ING Groep because it provides a quick snapshot of how much investors are paying for each euro of earnings. For stable, established businesses such as banks, the PE ratio is especially relevant since it reflects both current profitability and the market’s expectations of future growth.

What counts as a “fair” PE ratio depends on several factors. If investors expect higher earnings growth in the years ahead, they are often willing to pay a higher multiple, while riskier or slower-growing companies typically command a discount. The PE ratio also varies between industries, so benchmarks are key.

Consider ING Groep’s numbers. The stock trades at a PE of 12.3x, compared to the industry average of 10.3x and a peer group average of 10.2x. This means ING is priced a bit higher than many of its banking peers. However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for ING Groep is 13.0x. The Fair Ratio is designed to account for the company’s earnings growth outlook, profit margins, industry dynamics, risk factors, and size, offering a more tailored benchmark than the broad industry or peer averages alone.

With ING Groep’s current PE just under the calculated Fair Ratio, the stock appears attractively valued by this method, and the small gap suggests the price is in line with fundamentals. This implies investors are not overpaying or underpaying for future earnings potential at current levels.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. In simple terms, a Narrative is your personal story and perspective about a company, reflected through your own fair value estimate based on what you believe about its future revenue, earnings, and margins. Narratives connect the “why” behind the numbers, linking your view of ING Groep’s future to a clear financial forecast and, ultimately, a specific fair value for the stock.

Far more than a static checklist, Narratives are easy to use and widely adopted on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors build and share stories about companies like ING Groep. This tool helps you decide when to buy or sell by dynamically comparing your chosen Fair Value to the real-time share price, making it transparent how your beliefs play out in actionable investment decisions.

What makes Narratives especially powerful is their ability to update automatically as new news or earnings reports come in, ensuring your thesis stays current. For example, one investor might have a bullish view, forecasting ING Groep’s fair value at €27.92 by focusing on rapid growth in fee-based income and infrastructure investment. Another might take a cautious stance with a fair value of €17.5, citing regulatory hurdles and margin pressure. This demonstrates how different, yet equally valid, perspectives can shape investment choices.

Do you think there's more to the story for ING Groep? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include INGA.enxtam.

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