US stocks surrendered early gains on Thursday as investors weighed AI demand signals and a prolonged US-China trade war stoked by President Trump.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved up 0.2%, as Nvidia (NVDA) and other AI-related stocks floated higher on chip manufacturing giant TSMC's stellar earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) traded roughly flat.

Chip stocks were boosted early Thursday after TSMC (TSM) hiked its outlook for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, giving hope that surging AI demand will keep on booming.

The go-to contract chipmaker for Nvidia and Apple (AAPL) also reported a nearly 40% surge in quarterly profit in the last quarter, beating estimates and reaching a record. Nvidia, Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), and other AI-related stocks rose.

But the overall choppy market action continues the theme of the week on Wall Street, despite strong quarterly results from Wall Street banks and hints that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this year.

US-China trade frictions were again in the spotlight after Trump confirmed on Wednesday that tensions with China remain elevated. He told a reporter who asked whether the two countries are headed for a long-lasting trade war, "Well, you're in one now." At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the trade truce between the two could be extended.

The conflicting messages follow a series of threats by Trump to further restrict trade with China in response to new sanctions and export controls from Beijing, as well as to impose additional 100% tariffs in November.

Another headwind, the US government shutdown, entered its third week. The stoppage, which has deprived the Fed and Wall Street of key data on the economy, is increasingly expected to continue into November.

American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) shares sank 28% Thursday after disclosing in a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission that the US Department of Energy has canceled $52 million in grant funding.

ABAT had been awarded the grant in 2023 to support its $115 million project to build a commercial manufacturing facility for the production of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, which the company said would advance domestic critical mineral lithium production and support US energy independence.

ABAT said in the filing that it has appealed the termination, but added, \\"Regardless of the outcome of the appeal process, the Company intends to move forward with the project without impact to timeline or scope.\\"

Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports:

Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said Thursday he is in favor of trimming interest rates by another quarter percentage point at the end of this month, but after that he wants to move cautiously.

The new comments from a top candidate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2026 suggest that Waller may be inclined to hold rates steady to wait and see how the economy and labor market play out.

Waller sees a conflict right now between data showing strong growth and a weakening job market.

\\"Something's gotta give — either economic growth softens to match a soft labor market, or the labor market rebounds to match stronger economic growth,\\" Waller said in a speech in New York entitled \\"Cutting Rates in the Face of Conflicting Data.\\"

\\"Since we don't know which way the data will break on this conflict, we need to move with care when adjusting the policy rate to ensure we don't make a mistake that will be costly to correct,\\" Waller said.

Read the full story here.

There's a growing fear on Wall Street of an AI hype-fueled market bubble. The argument is that valuations are stretched as tech stocks become intertwined through a tangled web of circular investments linking them more closely to the success of OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), which has yet to turn a profit.

OpenAI has promised to deliver billions in revenue to cloud providers, chipmakers, and data center companies as it works to bring online more than 26 gigawatts of computing power in the next several years — enough power to provide electricity to more than 20 million homes — that would help train and run its next-generation AI models.

And those promises have helped fuel broader optimism about future demand for AI chips and cloud services.

But Wall Street analysts Vivek Arya of Bank of America and Gil Luria of DA Davidson told Yahoo Finance in interviews that fears of a bubble could be overdone because at least some parts of the market aren't fully pricing in OpenAI's success in achieving its goals. In other words, if OpenAI doesn't do everything it says it will, stocks may not crash as badly as some analysts fear.

DA Davidson's Luria pointed to Oracle (ORCL) stock as an example. Oracle shares surged as much as 43% and traded as high as $345 when the cloud company revealed a backlog of massive AI contracts during its latest earnings report. However, the stock dropped to as low as $292 in the two days following a Wall Street Journal report that revealed OpenAI was responsible for the vast majority of that backlog.

\\"So that tells you the market has put about a 50% discount on OpenAI living up [its]obligations to Oracle,\\" Luria said. \\"And I think [that is] a rule of thumb that tells you what the perspective is, which is, it's possible that OpenAI can spend all this money, but there's a pretty good chance they won't spend all this money.\\"

Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports:

A telling indicator of where the current government shutdown stands can be found in a word that is increasingly being uttered across various forums in Washington: November.

Odds are increasing that the current 15-day funding shortfall may continue into next month — which of course won't begin for another two-plus weeks — as both gridlocked lawmakers and analysts try to figure out how the standoff ends.

Some lawmakers are even beginning to express worries that the Thanksgiving travel season in late November could be at risk.

Veda Partners' Henrietta Treyz offered only a slightly sooner timeline to her consulting firm's clients, writing this week that early November is the next likely milestone for when the mounting pressure to end the shutdown may force lawmakers to the table.

Policymakers may agree to an extent, with all sides increasingly focusing on leverage points that aren't coming until the end of the month. ...

One of the Trump administration's key tools to put immediate pressure on Democrats was at least temporarily removed Wednesday, when a ruling from the US District Court for the Northern District of California put at least a temporary pause on Trump's plans to use the shutdown to permanently fire federal employees.

Read more here.

US stocks rose on Thursday as the world's leading AI chip manufacturer TSMC (TSM) posted earnings results ahead of expectations that lifted AI market optimism.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved up nearly 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) put on roughly 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, added 0.25%.

Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and other chip stocks rose as TSMC's (TSM) earnings and executive commentary bolstered confidence in AI-linked semiconductor demand.

Shares of leading AI chipmaker Nvidia rose 1%, while rival Broadcom added 1.4%. Shares of Micron (MU), whose memory chips are used alongside Nvidia's GPUs in AI servers, climbed 3.4%, while British chip designer Arm (ARM) gained nearly 1%. AMD (AMD) shares were flat.

The moves come as TSMC's third quarter earnings report surpassed expectations and the Taiwan-based contract chip manufacturer lifted its full-year 2025 revenue growth outlook to the mid-30% range from its earlier 30% forecast.

TSMC also lifted the bottom of its capital expenditure forecast range to $40 billion from $38 billion — with 70% of that budget allocated to ramping up its advanced manufacturing processes related to AI chipmaking — as the company noted \\"higher growth opportunities in the following years.\\"

TSMC chair C.C. Wei said: \\"Our conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening and we believe the demand for semiconductor[s] will continue to be very fundamental.\\"

CFO Jen-Chau Huang added that \\"next year looks to be a healthy year, and we are confident on the mega trend that we'll continue to invest.\\"

That conviction is a positive signal for the AI space, as CEOs and Wall Street analysts increasingly express concerns over a market bubble fueled by AI hype and a tangled web of circular investments among the leading industry players.

Hims & Hers (HIMS) stock dipped on Thursday morning after mounting a huge 16% rally on Wednesday.

The telehealth provider said it would now be providing a line of treatments for menopause and perimenopause, expanding its range of hormone replacement therapies, as it looks to scale in that market.

The company stated that around 1.3 million women in the US experience menopause each year, but less than a third of OB/GYN residencies offer menopause training. The US hormone therapy market was last estimated at around $11 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to $19.22 billion by 2033, according to Grand View Research.

Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban reports:

Customers can soon make Walmart (WMT) purchases directly from ChatGPT. That gives people a more concrete, everyday use case to ground the abstract, billion-dollar dealmaking that has defined the AI industry in recent weeks.

But if agentic commerce is one of the technology's first offerings of practical worth, it also signals, at least in these early days, the gap between gargantuan investments and the marginal business gains flowing from them.

For every partnership like this, it seems there are far more between OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) and one of the chip providers on the other side of the supply chain.

And of the two kinds of deals — supplier and customer — a lack of the latter underscores the need for investor and corporate patience.

In the same way that online order pick-ups save people time by not having to navigate physical stores, an AI agent can spare consumers from a mess of menus, search bars, and endless scrolling.

That ups the convenience, making an AI-powered shopping experience more attractive for consumers, potentially locking in repeat customers, increasing order numbers, and attracting new shoppers.

Read more here in the takeaway from today's Morning Brief.

Please note: Some economic data will not be available due to the government shutdown.

Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending Oct. 11); Continuing claims (week ending Oct. 4); Retail sales advance (September); Producer price index final demand (September); Philadelphia Fed business outlook; Business inventories (August); NAHB housing market index (October)

Earnings calendar: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Charles Schwab (SCHW), BNY Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Infosys (INFY), CSX (CSX)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:

Trump on US-China trade war: 'You're in one now'

OpenAI has 2 kinds of dealmaking — and they're lopsided

Xi's rare earth shock gives Trump a chance to woo back US allies

TSMC hikes outlook in vote for sustained AI boom

Salesforce jumps as $60B forecast eases revenue growth concerns

Gold climbs to record on US-China tensions and Fed rate-cut bets

Oil rises as Trump says India will stop buying from Russia

Nestlé stock soars on sales rebound, plan for 16,000 job cuts

Here's a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:

Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose 1% in premarket trading on Thursday after an upbeat earnings release from fellow chipmaker TSMC (TSM) helped boost chip stocks.

HPE (HPE) stock fell 8% before the bell after 2026 guidance came in below expectations amid slow growth for the company's networking business.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) stock rose 13% in premarket trading on Thursday following the release of its third-quarter earnings. The transport and logistics company beat Wall Street estimates.

Salesforce (CRM) stock rose 6% before the bell on Thursday after forecasting that it expects revenue of more than $60 billion in 2030, beating Wall Street estimates.

Reuters reports:

Investors are pressuring cloud firms to show returns on the billions poured into AI, while an uncertain macro environment and volatile customer spending weigh on growth prospects.

The forecast excludes the impact from its deal to acquire software-maker Informatica, according to a presentation made at Salesforce's Dreamforce event.

Analysts, on average, expect Salesforce to report annual revenue of about $58.37 billion in 2030, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Read more here.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSM, 2330.TW) on Thursday reported a nearly 40% surge in profit in the last quarter, fueled by soaring demand for chips used for AI.

The contract chipmaker's net income of 452.3 billion new Taiwan dollars ($14.8 billion) in the July-September quarter topped analyst forecasts.

Shares in TSMC rose 1.56% in premarket trading on Wall Street and gained 1.4% in Taiwan.

Bloomberg reports:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, reinforcing hopes in the longevity of a global boom in AI spending.

TSMC, the go-to chipmaker for Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Nvidia Corp., (NVDA) now foresees mid-30% growth in annual sales, up about a few percentage points from previously. ...

The results underscore how TSMC remains one of the bigger beneficiaries of a spending spree on AI infrastructure that’s expected to cross the $1 trillion mark in coming years. From OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) to Oracle Corp. (ORCL), industry leaders are racing to build the data centers that underpin the technology in the post-ChatGPT era. ...

Businesses across the global semiconductor supply chain are bracing for disruptions after Beijing imposed curbs on rare-earth mineral exports — essential to most technology devices — and the US responded with additional tariffs and restrictions on software sales to the Asian nation.

But Wei argued that AI demand would make up for that lost market. “Conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening,” he told analysts after outlining earnings. “The AI demand actually continues to be very strong, stronger than we thought three months ago.”

Read more here.

Nestlé (NESN.SW, NSRGY) shares climbed after the foodmaker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs, just weeks after replacing its chief executive officer.

The stock surged as much as 8.2% in Swiss trading, the biggest gain since 2008. The foodmaker had risen 1.7% this year through Wednesday, lagging behind the Swiss Market Index.

The job reductions, amounting to about 6% of the workforce, will occur over the next two years, the maker of Nespresso coffee capsules and KitKat candy bars said Thursday. Nestlé raised its target for cost savings to 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.7 billion) by the end of 2027, from 2.5 billion francs.

“The world is changing, and Nestlé needs to change faster,” CEO Philipp Navratil said in a statement Thursday. “This will include making hard but necessary decisions to reduce headcount.”

The announcement on jobs came alongside a 4.3% rise in third-quarter sales, driven by higher prices and improved real internal growth — a key measure of volumes closely watched by analysts and investors.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Gold (GC=F) rose to a record as heightened US-China frictions and bets the Federal Reserve will press on with monetary easing through the end of the year supported demand.

Bullion has risen more than 5% so far this week and touched a peak above $4,242 an ounce on Thursday, as a breakneck rally underway since mid-August extended. The buying spree has spread to other precious metals, with silver surging more than 3% on Wednesday as availability in the London market remained tight.

Traders are piling into wagers calling for at least one outsized US rate cut by year—end, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled this week the central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point reduction later this month. Lower borrowing costs tend to benefit precious metals, as they don’t pay interest.

Read more here.