President Trump floated a list of demands for China, citing rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as his top issues to address with Beijing at the negotiating table and before the fragile tariff and trade truce between the world's largest economies expires.

“I don’t want them to play the rare earth game with us,” Trump said on Air Force One on Sunday.

Last week, Trump said threatened high tariffs on Chinese goods were "not sustainable," easing fears of further trade escalation between the countries and helping boost stocks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the countries will hold talks later this week, and Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet later this month.

The US and China have seen their fragile trade relationship wobble further in recent weeks, with Trump confirming last week that the countries are in a trade war.

China accused the US last week of causing "panic" over Beijing's export controls on rare earth materials, according to a report in China's state newspaper, the Global Times.

Trump said the US would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting on Nov. 1 over Beijing's plan to impose new export controls on rare earth minerals.

In what could end up being a cudgel in his administration's negotiations with China, Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday signed a deal that the White House said would help supply the US with the critical minerals.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The US budget deficit declined for the 2025 fiscal year, due in part to a surge in tariff revenues. The deficit fell 2% for the fiscal year to $1.78 trillion, down from $1.82 trillion in 2024.

The White House is ready to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, delivering a major win for carmakers who have lobbied to reduce the fallout from higher import duties. The Commerce Department is set to announce a five-year extension that allows automakers to reduce what they pay in tariffs on imported car parts.

Americans are set to pay more than half of President Trump's tariffs as companies raise prices, according to Goldman Sachs.

Early next month, the US Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge to Trump's most sweeping tariffs — the "reciprocal" country-by-country duties that you can see in the graphic above. A ruling against the tariffs — which would be in line with lower-court decisions — could have significant ramifications for Trump's tariff strategy.

New duties on kitchen cabinets and vanities took effect Oct. 1.

Tariffs on timber and certain wood products (like furniture) took effect Oct. 14.

Shares in Australian rare earths companies spiked after President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced an agreement that will give the US increased access to Australia's supply of critical minerals.

Rare-earths producer Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSCF) jumped by more than 14% in the hours after the trade deal announcement, while Australian Strategic Materials (ASMMF) — a vertically integrated extractor, refiner, and manufacturer of metals and alloys including rare earth products — rallied by more than 24%.

Just five months ago, Lynas became the first producer of so-called \\"heavy\\" rare earths outside China, making it a crucial player in the global rare earth supply chain.

Shares in Nova Minerals (NVA), an Australian mining company that recently saw interest from the Trump Administration due to a gold prospect in one of the company's Alaskan mining projects, were trading down by more than 25% after a surge of more than 100% last week when news broke that the company was briefing the White House.

The deal between the US president and Australian prime minister represents of a pipeline of $8.5 billion in critical minerals, the Australian PM said at the White House.

“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,\\" Trump said at the White House on Monday.

Australia sits on the world's fourth largest deposits of rare earth minerals, with more than five million tons. Over the course of the past month, more than a dozen Australian mining companies met with US administration officials in Washington about resource pipelines and potential investments, according to Bloomberg.

The US and Australia on Monday signed a deal on rare earth minerals, in what could end up being a cudgel for President Trump in his administration's upcoming trade talks with China.

The agreement would increase US access to critical minerals and rare earths, the White House said, at a time when China has taken steps to curb its own supply of those materials.

\\"In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical minerals and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,\\" Trump said at the White House during a meeting with the Australian prime minister.

The White House fact sheet has some more details on the agreement.

Our markets blog will cover some of the movers in this space, as well.

Bloomberg reports on more comments from President Trump on coming trade talks with China:

[H]e anticipated discussing China’s territorial ambitions regarding the self-governing island of Taiwan when he meets with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, while sidestepping questions about whether he expected China to propose trade concessions in exchange for greater control over the island.

“I assume that’s going to be one of the things, but I’m not going to talk about that now,” Trump told reporters during a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Defense cooperation agreements with Australia could serve as a deterrent to Chinese military action against Taiwan, Trump said, downplaying the chances of a military conflict in the region.

“Now that doesn’t mean it’s not the apple of his eye, because probably it is, but I don’t see anything happening,” Trump said of Xi.

Trump also said he expects to make a visit to China in early 2025.

Read more here.

President Trump has said rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans are his top issues with China, days before Washington and Beijing head back to the negotiating table and the trade truce nears expiration.

Trump also suggested Beijing failed to curb fentanyl exports, which he alleged is contributing to America's opioid crisis.

Bloomberg News reports:

“I don’t want them to play the rare earth game with us,” Trump said on Air Force One on Sunday, as he headed back to Washington from Florida. Days earlier, the US leader threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese shipments after Beijing vowed to exert broad controls on the minerals.
Trump also said to China: “to stop with the fentanyl.”

Another key demand was for the world’s No. 2 economy to resume soybean purchases. The three topics were all “very, you know, normal things,” he added.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the US and China will hold talks later this week in Malaysia. That came after he met virtually with Vice Premier He Lifeng on Friday, discussions that Chinese state media described as a constructive exchange of views.

A little over a week ago, Trump raised the prospect of canceling his first in-person meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping since he returned to the White House, angry over the Chinese government’s vow to exert broad controls on rare-earth elements. He also declared the 100% import surtax would take effect Nov. 1.

Read more here.

China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter despite a boom in exports, according to data on Monday from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

A prolonged property slump and trade tensions have hurt demand, putting pressure on policymakers to provide more stimulus.

Monday's data showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% from July to September, slowing to 5.2% in the second quarter.

Reuters reports on the takeaways from analysts:

KYLE RODDA, SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKETS ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE:

\\"Better than expected but still underwhelming. Domestic activity remains weak and investment was sluggish too, suggesting more needs to be done to boost demand. Ultimately, the story is the same: an economy that is recovering from the post-pandemic slump, but with very little momentum.\\"

ALEX LOO, FX AND MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE:

\\"It is likely that Beijing will meet its growth target for 2025 of 'around 5%'. The impressive growth record year-to-date suggests little need for more fiscal stimulus at this juncture and Beijing would probably take a hard-line stance in pressing the U.S. to roll back its technology curbs in any potential trade deal. As the Fourth Plenum is underway, we expect USD/CNY to stay in a tight range as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) ensures volatility is kept at a minimum during these big political events.\\"

Read more here.

The rising cost of coffee beans has pushed restaurants and coffee shops across the US to pass along those price increases to consumers, as the effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to ripple across the economy.

But there may be a break on the horizon for coffee drinkers, CNN reports, with two members of Congress introducing legislation to give coffee products an exemption.

Retail coffee prices jumped nearly 21% in August compared to the same time last year, and the Trump administration’s tariffs are partially to blame: In July, Brazil was slapped with one of the highest duties, at 50%, while Vietnam has 20% tariffs and Colombia has 10% tariffs.

America imports more than 99% of its coffee, according to the National Coffee Association. Most of it comes from Brazil — 30.7% of US coffee imports based on net weight, according to the UN Comtrade Database — Colombia (18.3%) and Vietnam (6.6%).

The average price of regular coffee at restaurants in August was 10 cents more than the same time last year, according to data from Toast, a restaurant management software provider. The increase brought the average price to $3.52.

In September, Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska, and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California, introduced the bipartisan “No Coffee Tax Act” to exempt coffee products from tariffs.

Read more here.

Amid tense US-China trade relations Chinese exporters have given up on the US and responded to high duties by selling more goods to buyers in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa.

Reuters reports

Jacky Ren, whose Gstar Electronics Appliance factory used to generate more than 60% of its revenue from U.S. orders, says he has \\"given up\\" on the American market.

Months of tit-for-tat tariff escalations, de-escalations, a brief truce, and the latest threat of a triple-digit tariff increase on Chinese goods from U.S. President Donald Trump in retaliation for Chinese curbs on rare earths exports, have left Ren feeling \\"extremely exhausted\\", and he is seeking out new markets to offset lost orders from U.S. customers.

Ren is not alone. Chinese customs data released this week showed exports from the world's second-largest economy have grown 7.1% to 19.95 trillion yuan ($2.80 trillion) in the first nine months of this year, despite a significant drop in goods heading to the United States.

This growth is expected to help China demonstrate the resilience of its economy in the face of geopolitical and trade upheaval when it announces third-quarter GDP data on Monday.

Still, Chinese exporters aren't exactly happy with the situation, even though they have found new markets.

Read more here.

As luxury Swiss watchmaker Ulysse Nardin debuted its latest high-end Freak watch at New York Watch Week, CEO Patrick Pruniaux said he's not concerned about the impact President Trump's tariffs may have on its bottom line, Pras Subramanian reports:

\\"We've been a company that has been existing for almost two centuries, so we've been, as you can guess, through many cycles, and obviously we've seen some tariffs that increase or decrease,\\" [Pruniaux] said. \\"I don't think it's going to impact massively our business overall, but I think in the watch industry, there could be some increase in price in the US. But actually the weakness of the dollar has probably as much impact as a tariff on the price.\\"

Ulysse Nardin confirmed that it raised prices by around 10% in response to tariffs and the weakening dollar. \\"I don't think [tariffs are] going to impact the buying process and the appetite from the American consumer,\\" Pruniaux added.

Read more here.

Oil markets are trying to make sense of claims from Donald Trump about whether India and China will continue to purchase Russian oil, offering the latest example of how the president is willing to intertwine energy, trade, and geopolitics.

This past week has seen Trump repeatedly claim that India is soon set to buy \\"no oil\\" from Russia, which, earlier in the week, Indian officials declined to confirm.

Trump was unbowed, saying Friday at the White House, \\"They've already de-escalated.\\"

Equally significant as both sides navigate the oil issue is the fact that Indian officials were also in Washington this past week for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where they reportedly talked trade with the Trump administration.

On the table are 25% blanket duties on India over the issue of Russia oil purchases, on top of 25% \\"reciprocal\\" duties.

Read more here.

The White House on Friday formalized President Trump’s plan for 25% tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks and offered new details about how they will work, including a sizable exception for auto parts after a flurry of truck-maker objections.

The new tariffs — set to take effect on Nov. 1 — include a topline rate of 25% on everything from box trucks to the largest trucks on the road. The new tariffs will also have a 10% rate on foreign-made buses.

The picture for trucks that use foreign parts is more complex after automakers noted that their supply chains often mean even \\"American-made\\" cars and trucks require a substantial number of foreign-made parts.

The new rules have a similar 25% top-line rate for parts but also expand the auto offset adjustment program — which was previously rolled out for consumer vehicles — to trucks.

This program allows much of an automobile's foreign parts to be offset up to 3.75% of the final retail price.

For many automakers that are not overly reliant on foreign parts, that provision effectively wipes out the costs of tariffs completely. \\"The idea here is we want domestic vehicle manufacturing,\\" said a senior administration official briefing reporters about the details of the plan.

The move is a formalization of a promise Trump made earlier this month.

“Beginning November 1st, 2025, all Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks coming into the United States from other Countries will be Tariffed at the Rate of 25%,” he wrote on Truth Social on October 6.

Reuters reports:

Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said on Friday he had spoken briefly to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about the United States' 39% tariffs on Switzerland, but he gave no indication of progress on reducing the levies.

Speaking to Swiss television, Parmelin said that contact between the Swiss and U.S. governments was ongoing on various levels and that he had spoken to Bessent for \\"a few minutes\\".

\\"But that was very brief,\\" Parmelin told Swiss national broadcaster SRF during a visit to Washington. \\"We're staying in contact, including at a technical level. The federal cabinet will communicate as soon as we have progress to report.\\"

Read more here.

President Trump and Germany's Merck KGaA (MRK.DE) have struck a deal to provide discounted IVF drugs to the US in exchange for tariff relief.

Bloomberg News reports:

“Most couples with fertility challenges are paying these costs entirely out of their own pockets, which is not really possible to do,” Trump said. The “result will be healthier pregnancies, healthier babies and many more beautiful American children.”

Merck will offer its complete portfolio of IVF therapies through the president’s direct-to-consumer platform, TrumpRX, and boost manufacturing in the US. The most widely used drug, Gonal-f, is currently “700% more expensive in the United States than in the rest of the world,” Trump said during a press conference in the Oval Office on Thursday.

In exchange, the company will get a reprieve from the tariffs hanging over the pharmaceutical industry and its EMD Serono unit will receive a priority review voucher for its Pergoveris fertility drug that’s not yet approved in the US. Pergoveris is already approved in 74 countries, the company said.

Merck’s drugs were exposed to Trump’s tariff threat because they are made outside the US, with Switzerland a key production hub.

Read more here.

China's Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that it will escalate actions against the US at the World Trade Organization, claiming that the United States has been undermining the WTO since President Trump took office in January.

According to Reuters, China intends to scrutinize US trade policies using the WTO review process and work with members to restore a functioning appeals process for enforcing rules. The ministry alleged that US discriminatory policies, reciprocal tariffs, and unilateral sanctions violated WTO commitments.

Read more here.

President Trump on Friday said threatened high tariffs on Chinese goods were \\"not sustainable,\\" easing fears of further trade escalation between the countries.

\\"But that’s what the number is,\\" he said during an interview with Fox Business. \\"It’s probably not [sustainable] — you know, it could stand, but they forced me to do that.\\"

Trump also suggested a long-planned meeting with Xi Jinping was still on track, saying he planned to meet with China's leader in two weeks.

Watch the clip of the interview here:

“They’re always looking for an edge. They ripped off our country for years.\\"

\\"China — boy, they did a number on our country. They took money out. Now, it's reversed.\\"

\\"We have a very strong adversary and they only respect strength.\\"

EXCLUSIVE: President Trump talks trade… pic.twitter.com/RvU1zTR9WJ

— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 17, 2025

Tariffs have helped to trim the US deficit in the first drop seen since COVID. The US budget deficit declined for the 2025 fiscal year as tariff revenue hit a record high.

Reuters reports:

The US budget deficit shrank by $41 billion to $1.775 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, despite a $118 billion increase in revenues from President Donald Trump's tariffs, the Treasury Department reported on Thursday.

The results for the year ended September 30, which include nearly nine months of Trump's second term in the White House, compared to a $1.817 trillion deficit in fiscal 2024. It was the first time the annual deficit had fallen since 2022, when the unwinding of COVID-19 relief programs brought spending down.

The smaller deficit was aided by a record $195 billion in net customs receipts for the fiscal year, an increase of $118 billion from the prior year as new Trump tariffs rolled in.

Customs receipts in September reached a new record high of $29.7 billion, but the pace of increase slowed from August, when $29.5 billion was collected.

Total receipts for fiscal 2025 were a record $5.235 trillion, up $317 billion, or 6%, from the $4.918 trillion in fiscal 2024.

Fiscal 2025 outlays also were a record at $7.01 trillion, up $275 billion, or 4%, from the $6.735 trillion in the prior fiscal year.

Read more here.

Bloomberg News reports:

The White House is poised to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, a move that would deliver a major win for carmakers that have aggressively lobbied to stem the fallout from record-level import duties.

The Commerce Department is slated to announce a five-year extension for an arrangement that allows automakers to reduce what they pay in tariffs on imported car parts, according to people familiar with the matter. Previously, that provision was scheduled to sunset after two years.

The announcement could come as soon as Friday, the people said, noting that similar tariff announcements have slipped. The policy is expected to be detailed in government documents that also formally implement tariffs on imported trucks.

The concession follows months of lobbying by carmakers, including Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co. (GM), to secure relief from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. US automakers face higher costs from the levies he has imposed on imported vehicles, parts and materials, such as steel and aluminum.

Read more here.

China has accused the US of causing \\"panic\\" over Beijing's restrictions on rare earth materials. According to the Chinese state newspaper, the Global Times, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yongqian said that the US is exaggerating \\"China's measures\\" and \\"deliberately creating unnecessary misunderstanding and panic.\\"

These latest comments from China follow a week-long war of words between Washington and Beijing. It began with China restricting rare earth exports, followed by Beijing announcing it would investigate US chipmaker Qualcomm (QCOM) and placing restrictions on Nvidia (NVDA) chips. President Trump responded last week Friday and said he would put an additional 100% tariffs on China.

\\"The US has long exercised extraterritorial jurisdiction — it began decades ago,\\" she continued. \\"Since 2022, Washington has repeatedly imposed semiconductor export restrictions targeting China, abusing the 'foreign direct product rule' and zero-threshold content rules to pressure other countries into containing China,\\" Yongqian said.

\\"The accusations from the US reveal that the US is projecting its own behavior onto others. Safeguarding global supply chain security and stability requires joint efforts from all nations, including the US.\\"

China has indicated that they are open to talks, despite Trump confirming this week that the countries are \\"in\\" a trade war.

As part of a trade deal, the US and Canada are weighing the option of reviving a controversial oil pipeline, which could be used as a bargaining tool to ease some of the tariff tensions of President Trump's steel and aluminum duties.

The FT reports:

Dominic LeBlanc, who is responsible for Canada-US trade, has been in Washington this week for talks with senior US officials, following a meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House last week.

Officials from both sides said that the prospect of restarting work on the Keystone XL oil pipeline — scrapped by former US president Joe Biden on environmental grounds — was on the table and had been discussed in recent meetings.

Ottawa was “open to exploring Keystone” if the US wanted to, Canada’s energy minister Tim Hodgson told the Financial Times.

He said Canada, the US’s biggest foreign supplier of oil by far, would link energy supply with progress on Trump’s tariffs.

“We are open to discussing the advancement of continental energy security, if we also address the irritants for steel and aluminium,” Hodgson said.

Read more here.

President Trump's \\"Liberation Day\\" tariffs alienated longtime allies and allowed China to build stronger relations with the world. However, since Beijing introduced export restrictions on rare earths, the tables might finally be turning in Trump's favor.

Bloomberg News reports:

China’s decision to unveil unprecedented export controls on the rare-earth supply chain dominated meetings at an annual huddle of global economic chiefs in Washington this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at an emerging coalition, saying US officials were “speaking with our European allies, with Australia, with Canada, with India and the Asian democracies,” to form a fulsome response.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato called for Group of Seven countries to “unite and respond” to China’s moves, while his German counterpart touted a potential joint response of the bloc. Australia’s prime minister will head to Washington next week in the hope of negotiating a deal over critical mineral supply chains, as countries seek to diversify.

All that marks an abrupt U-turn from six months ago when President Xi Jinping was rallying countries to stand together against the highest American tariffs unleashed since World War II. While China justified its latest curbs as a response to an expansion of US controls, the measures demand even foreign exporters get permits to ship products anywhere in the world containing traces of certain Chinese minerals.

“The biggest risk is that the Chinese government overplays its hand,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics. “Disrupting global rare-earth supply chains could create the impression Beijing is inflicting pain on a wide swathe of countries for no obvious reason.”

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

President Donald Trump announced a deal with Germany’s Merck KGaA to cut the price of some of its fertility medicines in exchange for relief from threatened tariffs, a step toward fulfilling his campaign promise of making IVF less expensive and more widely available in the US.

Read more here.