GM Soars Most in Five Years as Truck Demand Spurs Outlook Boost

General Motors Co.’s shares jumped the most since 2020 — and reached the highest levels since it emerged from bankruptcy about a decade before that — after the automaker raised its profit guidance on buoyant truck sales and a dose of tariff relief.

Six months after pulling its full-year forecast over uncertainty about the Trump administration’s tariffs, GM said Tuesday it now expects to make $12 billion to $13 billion in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in 2025 — up from a previous range of $10 billion to $12.5 billion it had affirmed in July.

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The improved outlook comes as GM is seeing a jump in sales of high-margin, gas-powered SUVs and trucks partly enabled by moves to ease federal emissions rules. Even so, the projection is below its initial guidance in January for as much as $15.7 billion, a sign of the toll taken by the imposition of tariffs and an erosion of its electric vehicle business.

In a letter to shareholders and on a conference call with analysts, Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra thanked President Donald Trump for extending through 2030 a tariff discount on some imports for carmakers that produce and sell completed automobiles in the US.

“We appreciate the administration’s ongoing support for American innovation and jobs, and we look forward to progress on trade deals with countries like Canada and Mexico,” she said on the call.

Shares of the Detroit-based manufacturer rose 15%, the best one-day gain since March 2020, to close regular trading at a record $66.62. The stock is up about 25% this year, ahead of a 15% gain so far in the broader S&P 500 index.

Chris McNally, an analyst at Evercore with an “outperform” on GM, highlighted the company’s prediction next year’s earnings may be even stronger than in 2025, signaling bullish momentum. “Not sure what anyone could possibly even nitpick about this,” he said in a research note.

The forecast shows how GM is managing disruption from the White House in areas ranging from emission penalties and electric vehicle subsidies to levies on imports of components and vehicles. Those changes have hurt profits and further undercut an already wavering initiative to electrify GM’s fleet by 2035 in a bid to better compete with Tesla Inc. and fast-growing Chinese rivals. Earlier this month, GM said it booked a one-time charge of $1.6 billion to restructure its struggling EV business.

GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson told analysts on the conference call that capital spending will be “at the lower end” of a $10 billion to $11 billion guidance range as it recalibrates spending due to the shifts in tariff policy and production plans.

Separately, GM announced that it would end production of its BrightDrop electric delivery van at a plant in Ontario, Canada, which had been suspended since May.

Falling Short

Adjusted profit in the three months to Sept. 30 came to $2.80 per share, the company said, surpassing analysts’ consensus for $2.27 a share but falling short of the $2.96 per share it reported a year ago — and before the implementation of Trump’s trade agenda.

While revenue fell slightly to $48.6 billion in the quarter, net income fell by more than half to $1.3 billion due in part to higher costs from tariffs. But GM revised its tariff impact downward by $500 million this year, forecasting a range of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion in additional costs. Share buybacks have mitigated the impact on earnings per share.

“The overall impression is of a company firing on all cylinders within the context of those factors that management can control, and with improving visibility with regard to those factors outside management’s control,” Ryan Brinkman, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst with an “overweight” rating on GM’s stock, wrote in a research note to clients.

In its core North American business, GM is seeing strong demand for its largest trucks and SUVs, helping to boost profits. The company said it had its best year-to-date sales since 2018 for its Silverado truck and the best first nine months for the full-size Escalade SUV since 2007. It notched its best-ever sales for its GMC brand, which sells high-end trucks and SUVs.

GM now expects North America pricing to rise 0.5% to 1% this year, passing along few tariff costs in an environment where sticker prices already are at historically high levels.

GM made $80 million in China in the latest quarter and $197 million the first nine months of the year. That comes after it lost $137 million in the same quarter a year ago and $347 million the first three quarters of last year.

“We are probably not really going to be as big in China as we had been historically going forward, with the amount of tremendous competition that’s in the country,” Jacobson said on Bloomberg TV. “But together with our partners, we were able to restructure that business and we’ve been profitable every quarter this year and look to be able to sustain that.”

--With assistance from Craig Trudell, Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Ryan Beene.

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