The US and India are nearing a trade deal which could see tariffs on New Delhi cut by 15-16% from 50%, according to a report in the Mint.

President Trump hiked tariffs on India in August over New Delhi's purchase of Russia oil. Trump accused India of aiding the war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Russia.

At the same time, India's President Modi may agree to reduce the countries purchase of Russian oil. Trump claimed on Tuesday that he and Modi had spoken and India has agreed to wind down its purchase of oil from Moscow.

Trump predicted on Tuesday that a upcoming meeting between the US and China's leader Xi Jinping would "yield a good deal" on trade but also said at the same time that the meeting may not happen.

"I have a good relationship with President Xi, I expect to be able to make a good deal with him," Trump said.

Trump floated a list of demands for China, citing rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as his top issues to address with Beijing at the negotiating table and before the fragile tariff and trade truce between the world's largest economies expires.

“I don’t want them to play the rare earth game with us,” Trump said on Air Force One on Sunday.

In a move that analysts said was aimed squarely at China, Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday signed a deal that the White House said would help supply the US with the critical minerals.

Last week, Trump said threatened high tariffs on Chinese goods were "not sustainable," easing fears of further trade escalation between the countries and helping boost stocks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the countries will hold talks later this week, and Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet later this month, even as Trump has mused about whether such a meeting will actually happen.

The US and China have seen their fragile trade relationship wobble further in recent weeks, with Trump confirming last week that the countries are in a trade war.

China accused the US last week of causing "panic" over Beijing's export controls on rare earth materials, according to a report in China's state newspaper, the Global Times.

Trump said the US would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting on Nov. 1 over Beijing's plan to impose new export controls on rare earth minerals.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The White House is ready to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, delivering a major win for carmakers who have lobbied to reduce the fallout from higher import duties. The Commerce Department is set to announce a five-year extension that allows automakers to reduce what they pay in tariffs on imported car parts.

Trump is stepping up attacks on US trading partners over drug pricing and is preparing a probe, which could lead to new tariffs.

Americans are set to pay more than half of President Trump's tariffs as companies raise prices, according to Goldman Sachs.

Early next month, the US Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge to Trump's most sweeping tariffs — the "reciprocal" country-by-country duties that you can see in the graphic above. A ruling against the tariffs — which would be in line with lower-court decisions — could have significant ramifications for Trump's tariff strategy.

New duties on kitchen cabinets and vanities took effect Oct. 1.

Tariffs on timber and certain wood products (like furniture) took effect Oct. 14.

The US and India are nearing a deal to cut tariffs on New Delhi to 15-16% from 50%, according to a report in the Mint. President Trump hiked tariffs on India back in August, claiming that India's Prime Minister Modi was helping to aid the Russian-Ukraine war by purchasing oil from Moscow.

At the same time, India may agree to wind down its purchase of Russian oil. Trump said on Tuesday that he and Modi had spoken on the phone and an agreement was made to reduce India's purchase of Russian oil.

Bloomberg News reports:

New Delhi may agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil and allow the US to export more non-genetically modified American corn and soymeal, according to the report. An agreement may be announced when President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi possibly meet at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Malaysia, the newspaper said.

India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and other officials didn’t respond to the newspaper’s request for information, while the US embassy in India referred queries to the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Trump imposed 50% duties on India’s US-bound exports last month over New Delhi’s imports of Russian oil, as well as what the US has called its high tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers to American goods. The rate was the highest in Asia and has led to a sharp downturn in US-India ties, which had been warming for years.

Still, the two sides have continued discussions toward a deal. During a Diwali celebration at the White House on Tuesday, Trump said Modi assured him during a call that India would wind down its Russian oil purchases, raising the prospect of a reprieve. In a post on X, Modi acknowledged the call but did not share the contents of the discussion.

Read more here.

China is proving more resilient than many would have thought. According to new export data, every day about a billion dollars of exports cross the pacific from China to the US, despite President Trump's tariffs.

Bloomberg News reports:

Despite double-digit drops in the value of overall trade during the past half a year, some products have recently seen an increase from 2024, defying trade strains between Beijing and Washington.

The upshot is that US tariffs appear somewhat limited in their ability to control what American firms import, as China’s sway over sectors such as rare earths and electronics makes its products hard to dislodge, at least in the short term. That may change over time, especially if Trump further hikes tariffs, as the Republican leader has repeatedly threatened to do.

“China’s strong position in global supply chains gives it some bargaining power with US importers in the near term,” wrote Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu, who cautioned other countries can’t quickly displace China as a supplier to the US. “Realigning production will take time,” they added.

All that’s giving President Xi Jinping more bargaining power as his trade negotiators head into talks aimed at extending a 90-day tariff truce that’s set to expire in November. In the third quarter, more than $100 billion worth of Chinese goods arrived in the US, helping Beijing keep economic growth on track for its annual target and pushing the bilateral trade surplus up to $67 billion.

Read more here.

Bloomberg News reports:

Switzerland’s exports to the US rebounded in September, suggesting demand for its goods is so far withstanding the impact of President Donald Trump’s outsized tariffs.

Foreign sales to America excluding gold, adjusted for seasonal swings, were 43% higher in September than in August, the country’s customs office said on Tuesday. The total of Swiss shipments rose by 3.4%.

Meanwhile imports from the world’s biggest economy rose 5.5%. That means that the US trade deficit with the nation widened to 3.3 billion francs ($4.2 billion), from 2.06 billion francs the previous month. That’s the most since April and above the average of the past five years, according to Bloomberg calculations based on historic data.

Read more here.

Rising trade tensions have caused options traders to pile into defensive stocks as a hedge against big stock market swings before President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are set to meet.

Bloomberg News reports:

Implied volatility in the S&P 500 futures (ES=F) expiring on Oct. 31 — which capture the risk around the meeting — is sitting near 20, higher than the contracts before or after the date. The Cboe VIX Index curve shows a similar ‘kink’ at the end of the month.

The US president on Friday confirmed he would meet with Xi in two weeks in South Korea — a gathering he had called into question earlier this month — and softened the tone on China tariffs, easing fears of more escalation. Still, traders aren’t taking any chances given the potential for circumstances to change. They had in mind the steep losses stocks suffered on Oct. 10, when trade jitters suddenly flared after being in the background in recent months.

“Our base case remains that de-escalation is probable so long as Trump and Xi meet at the end of the month,” said Dennis Debusschere, chief market strategist at 22V Research. “If it gets canceled the probability of escalation rises sharply.”

The view is echoed over at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk, where head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler said markets “will remain in an elevated” volatility environment through Oct. 31 - Nov. 1, when Trump and Xi are expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

“No deal by then will trigger a material pullback,” Tyler wrote in a note to clients last week.

A rising demand for protection is evident in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, the $9.4 billion fund tracking Chinese technology companies. The one-month, 25 delta put-call skew on the ETF is sitting at the highest level since early April, signaling elevated anxiety between now and mid-November. To the bank’s strategists, volatility in Chinese stocks is rising amid a combination of “tariff tantrum” and a Communist part policy meeting that’s set to take place this week.

Read more here.

President Trump on Tuesday wavered over whether a highly anticipated meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping would actually happen later this month.

“Maybe it won’t happen,” Trump said at a luncheon he hosted for Republican senators, per Bloomberg. “Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say, ‘I don’t want to meet, it’s too nasty.’ But it’s really not nasty. It’s just business.”

The comments were the latest in a series of Trump's waffling over the anticipated negotiations, which still do not have a confirmed date. Even as Trump raised questions over the status of the meeting, he said he expected trade talks with China to be successful.

“I have a great relationship with President Xi. I expect to be able to make a good deal with him,” Trump said. “I want him to make a good deal for China — but it’s got to be fair.”

Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports:

General Motors (GM) is soothing its tariff pain by raising prices on trucks and SUVs.

\\"Tariffs are getting a little bit better,\\" CFO Paul Jacobson told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. \\"I think the important message for the Street is that it's stabilized.\\"

... GM now expects tariffs to hit profits by $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion this year, an improvement from earlier estimates of up to $5 billion. The company said new tariff revisions should help offset some of the pain, with savings expected to show up in the fourth quarter as part of broader cost-cutting efforts.

\\"Tariffs are getting a little bit better, but I think the important message for the Street is that it's stabilized,\\" General Motors CFO Paul Jacobson tells @BrianSozzi.

Full interview: pic.twitter.com/3gmbnEqaM9

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 21, 2025

To blunt the impact, GM has leaned on strategic price increases. Jacobson said the automaker has found \\"opportunities to add content and create value for the consumer\\" each time it rolls out a new model.

\\"We've got a lot of strong demand that allows us to lean into that and work with our mix, on our trucks and our full-size SUVs to help bring up some of that revenue and that margin performance to help offset [tariffs],\\" he said.

Read more here.

China responded on Tuesday to President Trump's rare earth deal with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese by saying resource-rich rare earth countries should take a \\"proactive role\\" in helping to stabilize rare earth supply chains.

\\"The formation of global production and supply chains is the result of market and corporate choices,\\" a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, according to a report from NBC.

\\"Resource-rich nations with critical minerals should play a proactive role in safeguarding the security and stability of the industrial and supply chains, and ensure normal economic and trade cooperation,\\" the statement added.

Rare earths have become a critical talking point within the trade war between the US and China. China, which holds the largest reserve of rare earth resources, recently restricted exports of the key material used in technology and other products. This prompted Trump to say he would add an additional 100% tariff on goods from China. The moves from both Beijing and Washington have caused some to worry about the already fragile trade truce between the two nations.

President Trump said that the US commands \\"great respect\\" from China and that he also expects a \\"fantastic deal\\" to be established with China's leader Xi Jinping. The US president made the comments on Monday, following weeks of back and forth between Washington and Beijing.

AP reports:

“I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China,\\" Trump said. \\"It’s going to be a great trade deal. It’s going to be fantastic for both countries, and it’s going to be fantastic for the entire world.”

When asked about China's leverage, Trump said Beijing “threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs.\\" But he insisted his good relationship with Xi means they would work out ”a very fair deal.\\"

Trump's remarks come after Beijing infuriated him by expanding export controls on rare earth products that are used in smartphones, fighter jets, electric vehicles and more. Trump spoke as he hosted Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House, celebrating an agreement with the U.S. ally as a potential counterpoint to China's near-monopoly in processing those critical minerals.

All eyes are on a potential meeting between Trump and Xi because any failure to reach some agreement raises the risk of destabilizing not only relations between the two superpowers but also the global economy.

Read more here.

The US-Australian rare earth deal announced on Monday not only aims to boost US access to rare earth materials — it also helps set the stage for negotiations with China. The deal between Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is aimed at China's President Xi Jinping, whose government recently restricted exports of its rare earth materials.

As the US and China head back to the negotiating table next week, Yahoo Finance's Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul delves into Trump's latest plan to befriend China's regional rivals:

\\"We'll be doing a little bit of a tour,\\" Trump said Monday at the White House. \\"I'll be in Malaysia. I'll be in Japan.\\"

It's a coordinated string of diplomatic outreach that — far from coincidentally — comes as the anticipation grows for a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set for next week in South Korea.

Trump in recent days listed the array of tricky issues on the table between the US and China. Those include a wish for increased soybean purchases from the US, a crackdown on fentanyl, questions around Taiwan, the race for AI dominance, and, of course, that thorny issue of China's recent moves to close off its rare earth exports globally.

\\"I don't want them to play the rare earth game with us,\\" Trump told reporters as he flew back to Washington on Sunday evening.

Trump noted Monday that China may offer threats over the rare earths issue. But, he added, his counterthreat would be triple-digit tariffs. \\"I could threaten them with many other things,\\" he added.

Read more here.

Shares in Australian rare earths companies spiked after President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced an agreement that will give the US increased access to Australia's supply of critical minerals.

Rare-earths producer Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSCF) jumped by more than 14% in the hours after the trade deal announcement, while Australian Strategic Materials (ASMMF) — a vertically integrated extractor, refiner, and manufacturer of metals and alloys including rare earth products — rallied by more than 24%.

Just five months ago, Lynas became the first producer of so-called \\"heavy\\" rare earths outside China, making it a crucial player in the global rare earth supply chain.

Shares in Nova Minerals (NVA), an Australian mining company that recently saw interest from the Trump Administration due to a gold prospect in one of the company's Alaskan mining projects, were trading down by more than 25% after a surge of more than 100% last week when news broke that the company was briefing the White House.

The deal between the US president and Australian prime minister represents of a pipeline of $8.5 billion in critical minerals, the Australian PM said at the White House.

“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,\\" Trump said at the White House on Monday.

Australia sits on the world's fourth largest deposits of rare earth minerals, with more than five million tons. Over the course of the past month, more than a dozen Australian mining companies met with US administration officials in Washington about resource pipelines and potential investments, according to Bloomberg.

The US and Australia on Monday signed a deal on rare earth minerals, in what could end up being a cudgel for President Trump in his administration's upcoming trade talks with China.

The agreement would increase US access to critical minerals and rare earths, the White House said, at a time when China has taken steps to curb its own supply of those materials.

\\"In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical minerals and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,\\" Trump said at the White House during a meeting with the Australian prime minister.

The White House fact sheet has some more details on the agreement.

Our markets blog will cover some of the movers in this space, as well.

Bloomberg reports on more comments from President Trump on coming trade talks with China:

[H]e anticipated discussing China’s territorial ambitions regarding the self-governing island of Taiwan when he meets with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, while sidestepping questions about whether he expected China to propose trade concessions in exchange for greater control over the island.

“I assume that’s going to be one of the things, but I’m not going to talk about that now,” Trump told reporters during a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Defense cooperation agreements with Australia could serve as a deterrent to Chinese military action against Taiwan, Trump said, downplaying the chances of a military conflict in the region.

“Now that doesn’t mean it’s not the apple of his eye, because probably it is, but I don’t see anything happening,” Trump said of Xi.

Trump also said he expects to make a visit to China in early 2025.

Read more here.

President Trump has said rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans are his top issues with China, days before Washington and Beijing head back to the negotiating table and the trade truce nears expiration.

Trump also suggested Beijing failed to curb fentanyl exports, which he alleged is contributing to America's opioid crisis.

Bloomberg News reports:

“I don’t want them to play the rare earth game with us,” Trump said on Air Force One on Sunday, as he headed back to Washington from Florida. Days earlier, the US leader threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese shipments after Beijing vowed to exert broad controls on the minerals.
Trump also said to China: “to stop with the fentanyl.”

Another key demand was for the world’s No. 2 economy to resume soybean purchases. The three topics were all “very, you know, normal things,” he added.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the US and China will hold talks later this week in Malaysia. That came after he met virtually with Vice Premier He Lifeng on Friday, discussions that Chinese state media described as a constructive exchange of views.

A little over a week ago, Trump raised the prospect of canceling his first in-person meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping since he returned to the White House, angry over the Chinese government’s vow to exert broad controls on rare-earth elements. He also declared the 100% import surtax would take effect Nov. 1.

Read more here.

China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter despite a boom in exports, according to data on Monday from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

A prolonged property slump and trade tensions have hurt demand, putting pressure on policymakers to provide more stimulus.

Monday's data showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% from July to September, slowing to 5.2% in the second quarter.

Reuters reports on the takeaways from analysts:

KYLE RODDA, SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKETS ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE:

\\"Better than expected but still underwhelming. Domestic activity remains weak and investment was sluggish too, suggesting more needs to be done to boost demand. Ultimately, the story is the same: an economy that is recovering from the post-pandemic slump, but with very little momentum.\\"

ALEX LOO, FX AND MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE:

\\"It is likely that Beijing will meet its growth target for 2025 of 'around 5%'. The impressive growth record year-to-date suggests little need for more fiscal stimulus at this juncture and Beijing would probably take a hard-line stance in pressing the U.S. to roll back its technology curbs in any potential trade deal. As the Fourth Plenum is underway, we expect USD/CNY to stay in a tight range as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) ensures volatility is kept at a minimum during these big political events.\\"

Read more here.

The rising cost of coffee beans has pushed restaurants and coffee shops across the US to pass along those price increases to consumers, as the effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to ripple across the economy.

But there may be a break on the horizon for coffee drinkers, CNN reports, with two members of Congress introducing legislation to give coffee products an exemption.

Retail coffee prices jumped nearly 21% in August compared to the same time last year, and the Trump administration’s tariffs are partially to blame: In July, Brazil was slapped with one of the highest duties, at 50%, while Vietnam has 20% tariffs and Colombia has 10% tariffs.

America imports more than 99% of its coffee, according to the National Coffee Association. Most of it comes from Brazil — 30.7% of US coffee imports based on net weight, according to the UN Comtrade Database — Colombia (18.3%) and Vietnam (6.6%).

The average price of regular coffee at restaurants in August was 10 cents more than the same time last year, according to data from Toast, a restaurant management software provider. The increase brought the average price to $3.52.

In September, Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska, and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California, introduced the bipartisan “No Coffee Tax Act” to exempt coffee products from tariffs.

Read more here.

Amid tense US-China trade relations Chinese exporters have given up on the US and responded to high duties by selling more goods to buyers in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa.

Reuters reports

Jacky Ren, whose Gstar Electronics Appliance factory used to generate more than 60% of its revenue from U.S. orders, says he has \\"given up\\" on the American market.

Months of tit-for-tat tariff escalations, de-escalations, a brief truce, and the latest threat of a triple-digit tariff increase on Chinese goods from U.S. President Donald Trump in retaliation for Chinese curbs on rare earths exports, have left Ren feeling \\"extremely exhausted\\", and he is seeking out new markets to offset lost orders from U.S. customers.

Ren is not alone. Chinese customs data released this week showed exports from the world's second-largest economy have grown 7.1% to 19.95 trillion yuan ($2.80 trillion) in the first nine months of this year, despite a significant drop in goods heading to the United States.

This growth is expected to help China demonstrate the resilience of its economy in the face of geopolitical and trade upheaval when it announces third-quarter GDP data on Monday.

Still, Chinese exporters aren't exactly happy with the situation, even though they have found new markets.

Read more here.

As luxury Swiss watchmaker Ulysse Nardin debuted its latest high-end Freak watch at New York Watch Week, CEO Patrick Pruniaux said he's not concerned about the impact President Trump's tariffs may have on its bottom line, Pras Subramanian reports:

\\"We've been a company that has been existing for almost two centuries, so we've been, as you can guess, through many cycles, and obviously we've seen some tariffs that increase or decrease,\\" [Pruniaux] said. \\"I don't think it's going to impact massively our business overall, but I think in the watch industry, there could be some increase in price in the US. But actually the weakness of the dollar has probably as much impact as a tariff on the price.\\"

Ulysse Nardin confirmed that it raised prices by around 10% in response to tariffs and the weakening dollar. \\"I don't think [tariffs are] going to impact the buying process and the appetite from the American consumer,\\" Pruniaux added.

Read more here.

Oil markets are trying to make sense of claims from Donald Trump about whether India and China will continue to purchase Russian oil, offering the latest example of how the president is willing to intertwine energy, trade, and geopolitics.

This past week has seen Trump repeatedly claim that India is soon set to buy \\"no oil\\" from Russia, which, earlier in the week, Indian officials declined to confirm.

Trump was unbowed, saying Friday at the White House, \\"They've already de-escalated.\\"

Equally significant as both sides navigate the oil issue is the fact that Indian officials were also in Washington this past week for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where they reportedly talked trade with the Trump administration.

On the table are 25% blanket duties on India over the issue of Russia oil purchases, on top of 25% \\"reciprocal\\" duties.

Read more here.

The White House on Friday formalized President Trump’s plan for 25% tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks and offered new details about how they will work, including a sizable exception for auto parts after a flurry of truck-maker objections.

The new tariffs — set to take effect on Nov. 1 — include a topline rate of 25% on everything from box trucks to the largest trucks on the road. The new tariffs will also have a 10% rate on foreign-made buses.

The picture for trucks that use foreign parts is more complex after automakers noted that their supply chains often mean even \\"American-made\\" cars and trucks require a substantial number of foreign-made parts.

The new rules have a similar 25% top-line rate for parts but also expand the auto offset adjustment program — which was previously rolled out for consumer vehicles — to trucks.

This program allows much of an automobile's foreign parts to be offset up to 3.75% of the final retail price.

For many automakers that are not overly reliant on foreign parts, that provision effectively wipes out the costs of tariffs completely. \\"The idea here is we want domestic vehicle manufacturing,\\" said a senior administration official briefing reporters about the details of the plan.

The move is a formalization of a promise Trump made earlier this month.

“Beginning November 1st, 2025, all Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks coming into the United States from other Countries will be Tariffed at the Rate of 25%,” he wrote on Truth Social on October 6.

Reuters reports:

Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said on Friday he had spoken briefly to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about the United States' 39% tariffs on Switzerland, but he gave no indication of progress on reducing the levies.

Speaking to Swiss television, Parmelin said that contact between the Swiss and U.S. governments was ongoing on various levels and that he had spoken to Bessent for \\"a few minutes\\".

\\"But that was very brief,\\" Parmelin told Swiss national broadcaster SRF during a visit to Washington. \\"We're staying in contact, including at a technical level. The federal cabinet will communicate as soon as we have progress to report.\\"

Read more here.