ADM cuts 2025 profit outlook on biofuel and trade uncertainty, shares sink

By Karl Plume and Katha Kalia

(Reuters) -Grains trader Archer-Daniels-Midland cut its 2025 profit forecast for a third straight quarter on Tuesday as U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty and global trade disruptions pressured oilseed crush margins.

Shares were down about 1% at midmorning after tumbling nearly 11% in premarket trading.

ADM and its agribusiness peers have seen earnings erode in recent quarters due to ample global crop supplies and commodities market upheaval that has thinned margins.

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats and shifting deadlines for duties have created further difficulties for global grains merchants like ADM, including halting Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods that drove crop prices to multi-year lows.

The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements, slowed use of feedstocks like the soybean oil produced at ADM processing plants.

ADM SEES EARNINGS REBOUND IN 2026

Profit in ADM's agricultural services and oilseed segment, its largest division, fell 21% in the third quarter to $379 million as a 93% plunge in crushing profits overshadowed gains from strong corn and soymeal exports.

ADM said it expected adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for 2025, down from its previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 per share. If realized, the earnings would be ADM's weakest since 2019.

However, the company forecast an earnings rebound in 2026.

"The recent progress with the deal with China coupled with our expectation of gaining U.S. biofuel policy clarity within the next several weeks or months is an encouraging setup for next year," CEO Juan Luciano said.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week agreed to cut back certain tariffs, and China vowed to resume U.S. soybean purchases after shunning them for months.

ADM reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ended September 30, a six-year low for the quarter but topping analysts' average estimate of 85 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

(Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago and Katha Kalia in Bengaluru. Editing by Vijay Kishore, Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)

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