By Abhinav Parmar and Lisa Baertlein

(Reuters) -U.S. imports of containerized goods fell 7.5% year-over-year in October, as shipments from China plunged 16.3%​ amid importer caution over President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies, supply chain technology provider ‌Descartes said on Monday.

U.S. seaports handled a total of 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) last month, down ‌0.1% from September and below the 2.4 million to 2.6 million TEU range that typically signals peak trade activity, marking only the second October in the past decade to record a month-over-month decline.

As holiday merchandise reaches store shelves and inventories remain well stocked, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect U.S. imports ⁠to slow in November and December, ‌likely dropping below the 2 million TEU mark.

The anticipated declines this year partly reflect a late 2024 import surge fueled by concerns over potential port strikes and tariff-related frontloading that brought ‍forward shipments originally scheduled for later months.

"Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

Imports from China, ​one of the United States' top trading partners, rose 5.4% month-over-month to 803,‌901 TEUs, but saw broad year-over-year declines in its largest categories with imports of furniture and bedding down 13.6%, toys and sporting goods down 30.4% and electrical machinery down 17.2% compared to 2024.

"October's results reflect ongoing caution among importers, with broad-based year-over-year declines and limited month-over-month growth. With new U.S.–China trade terms now in place following recent negotiations, ⁠China's share of U.S. imports may stabilize in ​the near term," Descartes said.

A 20% "fentanyl tariff"​ on Chinese imports drops to 10% on November 10, while a planned increase in reciprocal tariffs has been postponed for a year. Meanwhile, an existing 10% tariff ‍under the International Emergency Economic ⁠Powers Act remains in place with the Supreme Court reviewing its legality.

U.S. import volumes from the 10 largest sources rose 1.3% month-over-month in October, driven by China's recovery but ⁠partly offset by declines across Asia, with imports from India, Thailand, and Vietnam falling 19%, 6%, and ‌4.8%, respectively, according to Descartes.

(Reporting by Abhinav Parmar in Bengaluru, ‌Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)