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(Bloomberg) -- Progress in trade negotiations will take the S&P 500 to a third consecutive year of 20% gains, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management, a feat unseen since the late 1990s.
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Chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus raised his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,100 points from 5,950, the highest among a panel of strategists tracked by Bloomberg. The new forecast implies an 11% upside from Friday’s close.
“Progress on trade negotiations removes an uncertainty that had weighed on our market outlook,” Stoltzfus wrote in a note. He also lifted his 2025 earnings estimate for S&P 500 firms to $275 per share, 3% higher than the average analyst forecast.
He reinstated his previous price target after cutting it in April post a negative market reaction to so-called “Liberation Day.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson reiterated that the bull case for the S&P 500 is solidifying.
US stocks have rallied to record highs as the US administration struck a series of trade deals ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline, including with Japan and the European Union, setting a broad 15% duty on imports. Several exporters in Asia, including Indonesia and the Philippines, have negotiated reciprocal rates between 15% to 20%.
Washington’s talks also continue with a number of countries including Switzerland, South Korea and Taiwan. Meanwhile, the US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months.
Oppenheimer’s new profit estimates imply further valuation expansion for the benchmark to 25.8 times forward price-to-earnings ratio, compared with 22.5 currently.
The strategists noted that corporate revenue and earnings growth in the past two quarters surprised to the upside, while results for the earnings season currently underway are showing 84% of companies are exceeding analyst consensus expectations.
--With assistance from Jessica Menton.
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