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Restaurant menu prices are coming back down to Earth, a new State of Local Commerce study published by DoorDash says. According to the report, the delivery app’s Restaurant Price Index shows that menu price inflation started off 2024 at nearly 6% and steadied by Q2 2025. By September 2025, year-over-year inflation had slowed to 3.2%. 

DoorDash typically uses the price of a cheeseburger as a micro-indicator of menu price inflation. The average meal price for a cheeseburger, beverage and side of fries has largely been keeping pace with the Restaurant Price Index and increased about 3.8% over the past 12 months from $17.90 to $18.58. The 100 largest U.S. cities vary wildly in cheeseburger inflation, ranging from $10.75 in Lincoln, Nebraska to $25.55 in Anchorage, Alaska.

The slowed menu inflation lines up with major operator trends. With 2025 already being dubbed the year of the value meal, brands from quick-service chains like McDonald’s to casual-dining companies like IHOP have introduced meal deals as a way to attract inflation-conscious consumers. With cautious customer habits in mind, many operators are pausing or slowing pricing increases. This two-part pricing strategy appears to be working: the latest Circana data shows that half of diners who had not recently dined out stated they would be encouraged to visit a restaurant with lower prices. 

The DoorDash study also shows that wage growth has been outpacing the Restaurant Price Index since early 2024, indicating that consumer spending power is growing, at least in the foodservice industry. The data also suggests that overall food spent (not just on DoorDash) has increased 4.9% as of August 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, with restaurant spend up by more than 6%. 

These statistics tell a different story than what operators have been suggesting during recent earnings calls. Companies like Domino’s, Restaurant Brands International, Chipotle, McDonald’s, and Chili’s all mentioned a “softer consumer environment” during Q3 earnings calls, specifically calling out lower income consumers pulling back on their spending. Additionally, Black Box Intelligence data from September shows that millennial and Gen Z consumers have slowed their spending habits this year. 

While data insights on consumer confidence might be contradictory, it’s clear that operators are winning when they prioritize value perception.

Contact Joanna at joanna.fantozzi@informa.com