President Donald Trump has been touting cheaper Thanksgiving dinners as proof his economic policies are working, and the numbers do show holiday meals cost less this year. But the story behind those savings is more complicated than the president lets on.

Trump has repeatedly highlighted Walmart's announcement that its Thanksgiving meal basket costs 25% less than last year — $40 this year compared to around $55 in 2024. "It is 25% lower than one year ago. That's a big deal," Trump said in a speech Wednesday to the American Business Forum (1).

He returned to the topic throughout the week, posting on Truth Social that "2025 Thanksgiving dinner under Trump is 25% lower than 2024 Thanksgiving dinner under Biden" (2).

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While Walmart's 25% price drop is real, Trump hasn’t mentioned an important detail — the basket is smaller this year.

The 2025 meal package includes 23 items, down from 29 a year ago. Missing this year: pecan pie, sweet potatoes, celery, onions, marshmallows, whipped topping and extra cans of soup. Walmart also swapped in cheaper store-brand products, replaced cranberry sauce with fresh cranberries, and substituted basic dinner rolls for Hawaiian rolls.

When NBC News asked Trump about the smaller bundle, he said: "Well, I haven't heard that."

Economists at Wells Fargo offer a broader — and less dramatic — view of Thanksgiving meal costs. "Even though the cost of food at home measured by the Consumer Price Index is up 2.7% from a year ago, the cost of Wells Fargo's Thanksgiving menu has fallen by about 2 to 3%," the report notes. Still a meaningful decline in an economy where every cent but there's a wide gap to the 25% drop Trump highlights (3).

Wells Fargo estimates an all-store-brand Thanksgiving meal for 10 costs about $80, while using all name-brand products brings the total to roughly $95. Mixing brands strategically can lead to even more savings.

Overall food inflation remains sticky, but Thanksgiving staples are seeing more relief. "At the heart of the uptick in the CPI's food-at-home increase is protein, specifically beef and eggs, which are not on the Thanksgiving menu," the economists wrote.

September’s Consumer Price Index showed food-at-home prices rose 2.7% year-over-year, with beef and veal prices up 14.7% (4). But many holiday standbys — turkey, potatoes, green beans and canned pumpkin — have had stable or lower prices.

On Friday, Trump signed an executive order reversing course on a signature economic policy, eliminating tariffs on dozens of food products including beef, coffee, bananas, tomatoes, avocados and tropical fruits — a move that acknowledges his own tariffs were contributing to higher grocery bills, as reported by the Associated Press (5).

"We just did a little bit of a rollback on some foods like coffee," Trump said aboard Air Force One, adding that tariffs "may, in some cases" increase consumer prices.

The decision comes after Democrats swept key elections last week in Virginia and New Jersey, where voters cited high prices as a leading concern. Coffee prices, for example, jumped nearly 21% year-over-year in August — the biggest increase since the 1990s — due in part to Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee.

“President Trump’s proclamation to reduce tariffs on a substantial volume of food imports is a critical step ensuring continued adequate supply at prices consumers can afford,” the Food Industry Association said in a statement.

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Walmart isn’t the only retailer cutting prices. Major chains are offering aggressive holiday promotions as shoppers continue to express anxiety about grocery costs. A recent survey found 90% of American adults worry about food prices (6).

Here’s how some deals stack up:

Lidl: Under $36 for 10 people — less than $3.60 per person

Aldi: A complete meal for 10 at $40, including a 14-pound turkey

Target: A smaller meal for four under $20 — less than $5 per person

Amazon: A meal for five for $25 with pre-made sides

These deals reflect retailers’ efforts to stand out in a fiercely competitive holiday season.

To help families stretch their Thanksgiving budgets further, Wells Fargo suggests:

Mix and match brands. Some national name brands are discounting more heavily this year on frozen vegetables, cranberries and other staples — undercutting store brands.

Shop early for turkey. Prices may fall as supply peaks, but the best-quality birds tend to go first.

Compare across stores. With wide price differences, shopping at more than one retailer could yield significant savings.

Trump is correct that Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper this year — and some retailer promotions offer dramatic savings. But the 25% drop he cites is tied to Walmart’s smaller meal basket, not the broader holiday market.

Friday’s tariff rollback highlights the political pressure to address grocery costs and marks a rare admission that tariffs can push consumer prices higher. While the new exemptions won’t slash prices overnight, they signal a shift in strategy as the administration responds to voter concerns about affordability.

For families planning their feast, the good news is that strategic shopping can deliver a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for 2% to 3% less than last year, even as overall grocery costs remain elevated. With retailers battling hard for holiday shoppers, this may be the best year in a while to stock up — as long as you read the fine print. That eye-catching bargain may come with a few missing ingredients.

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NBC News (1); Truth Social (2); Wells Fargo (3); Visual Capitalist (4); The Associated Press (5); Forbes (6)

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.