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Carney Searches for Votes to Pass Budget and Avoid Election

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government faces a decisive moment when Canada’s House of Commons votes Monday on a proposed budget that would increase borrowing to ramp up spending on the military and infrastructure.

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The vote is considered a matter of confidence, meaning that if the government loses, it would almost certainly trigger an election. Carney’s Liberal Party caucus holds 170 seats, two short of a majority.

As of Monday morning, it wasn’t clear how all 173 opposition members would vote. Elizabeth May, the Green Party’s sole elected lawmaker, told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. that “right now, I’m a no” on the budget. But she left the door open to changing her mind.

“I’m in a dilemma, obviously, and I’m still talking to ministers and representatives from the prime minister’s office and others to see what could we do before tomorrow afternoon to affect my vote,” she said Sunday.

If the government can’t find two opposition votes to support the budget, it would still be able to survive as long as at least four opposition members abstain. There have already been two votes on proposed budget amendments — and in each case, several members of the House didn’t show up to vote.

The fiscal plan, unveiled on Nov. 4, foresees C$167.3 billion ($119 billion) in additional deficits over a five-year period compared with earlier government forecasts. Carney’s administration has earmarked major spending increases for defense, housing and new projects such as port expansions to help the country diversify its export markets away from the US.

The left-leaning New Democratic Party, which has seven seats, is in the middle of a leadership contest and has a large debt burden. Its lawmakers are seen by political observers as most likely to help the government pass Monday’s vote.

“No, I’m not worried. I think there are all kinds of good reasons why different members or opposition parties want the budget to be passed,” cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc told Radio-Canada.

Carney’s Liberals won the popular vote and the most seats in an April election in which the major issues were US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his aggressive posture toward Canada. But most current polls put the Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party very close.

“One hundred percent of our members of Parliament oppose the costly Carney credit card budget that is going to drive up the cost of food, housing and living for Canadians,” Poilievre said Friday.

Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne on Friday called on opposition members to support his document, given the fragile state of the economy: “It’s not a time for political games, it’s not the time for posturing, this is time to fight for Canada, fight together, meet the moment, elevate yourself above politics.”

Canada hasn’t had two elections in the space of 12 months in more than four decades. Back then, a minority Conservative government failed to pass its budget in late 1979, leading to a new election in early 1980.

(Updates with additional context on the vote, starting in the fifth paragraph.)