Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin may fall to $80,000 before rebounding sharply toward $200,000 or $250,000.

Hayes said new all-time highs will only come after markets “puke” enough to force policymakers into renewed money printing.

CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri sees signs of a broader bear market.

Bitcoin could slide toward $80,000 in the coming weeks before rebounding into a powerful year-end surge that may carry it as high as $200,000 to $250,000, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

Hayes said Bitcoin is reacting to a sharp deterioration in U.S. dollar liquidity, an adjustment he believes must play out in full before the next leg of the bull cycle can begin.

Hayes believes Bitcoin may be approaching a major rebound later this year, even as he warns that the cryptocurrency could first fall toward the $80,000 region.

In his most recent essay published Monday, Hayes noted that Bitcoin’s retreat from roughly $125,000 to the low $90,000s aligns with a market grappling with tighter financial conditions, despite U.S. equities trading near record highs.

This divergence, he said, suggests a credit event may be forming.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to respond to contracting liquidity earlier than other risk assets.

Hayes argued that Bitcoin could “absolutely” drop to $80,000 or $85,000 if equities decline 10–20% and Treasury yields climb toward 5%.

Hayes described Bitcoin as a “free-market weathervane” for future fiat liquidity, suggesting it reacts ahead of political decision-making rather than in response to it.

While the Trump administration continues advocating for looser financial conditions, he said markets are currently following hard liquidity data, not political assurances.

“As with science, in trading it pays to have strong convictions loosely held,” he wrote.

Despite near-term downside risks, Hayes said a sufficiently deep correction would likely pressure U.S. policymakers to accelerate liquidity injections through the Federal Reserve or other mechanisms.

He argued that such a shift could spark a rapid reversal in Bitcoin and drive it toward $200,000 or $250,000 before year-end.

Hayes said he remains skeptical of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, arguing that new all-time highs will only arrive once markets have sold off enough to push U.S. policymakers into faster liquidity expansion.

“I am not conceding the four-year cycle is valid,” he wrote.

“Bitcoin and certain shitcoins will hit new all-time highs only after the markets puke enough to speed up the pace of money printing.”

Hayes said bullish investors correctly assume U.S. policy ultimately trends toward “money printing” during periods of financial stress.

However, he believes the market “must first retrace gains built since April to align with liquidity fundamentals.”

Only after such a reset, he argued, will policymakers deliver the scale of easing required to launch Bitcoin to new record highs.

CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri said the broader crypto market appears to be entering the early stage of a larger bearish cycle, with several long-term indicators aligning in a way that has historically preceded deeper declines.

He noted that the market’s total valuation has fallen more than 5% on the day and has broken decisively below key structural levels, pushing sentiment “firmly in deterioration.”

The move comes after Bitcoin briefly slipped below $90,000 for the first time since April.

Tahiri said Bitcoin’s structure mirrors the broader market, with BTC falling beneath its 50-week moving average for the first time in the current cycle.

He pointed out that this same signal appeared in January 2022, just before Bitcoin entered a prolonged multi-month decline that ultimately erased two-thirds of its value.

While high-profile industry figures, including Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss, argue that Bitcoin’s bottom is likely already in place, technical indicators continue to suggest that further weakness may lie ahead.

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