Key Takeaways

Strategy’s mNAV has fallen below 1, a level analysts warn is unsustainable for Bitcoin treasury companies.

Despite the downturn, Michael Saylor insists the firm could withstand an 80%-90% Bitcoin crash.

Market experts argue that, regardless of optimism, no company can operate for long with mNAV under 1.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) fall below $90,000 this week has pushed nearly every 2025 investor into the red — including Strategy, one of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders.

Yet Michael Saylor, the company’s executive chairman and the most visible Bitcoin evangelist in corporate America, insists he isn’t worried.

In an interview with Fox, Saylor said Strategy “can withstand an 80%-90% drawdown and keep operating,” brushing off concerns that the company’s ballooning Bitcoin position could come under stress if the market continues to unravel.

But not everyone is convinced.

Strategy’s core valuation metric, mNAV, quietly slipped below 1 this week.

And to analysts who track Bitcoin treasury firms, that number is far more alarming than any price headline.

Saylor, who has spent five years transforming Strategy from a software company into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, doubled down on his long-held belief that Bitcoin volatility is simply part of the cycle.

“Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, experiencing 15 significant drawdowns, yet it consistently returns to new all-time highs,” he said, arguing that deep corrections “clear out leverage and weak hands.”

He also pointed out that Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen since Strategy’s first purchases in 2020, dropping from roughly 80% then to around 50% today.

And when asked about liquidation risks, Saylor once again emphasized that Strategy’s debts are convertible, meaning “even if BTC falls to zero,” lenders cannot force the company to liquidate its holdings.

But analysts warn that the problem isn’t whether lenders can force sales, it’s whether Strategy can keep functioning with its stock now trading below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

Strategy’s mNAV, “multiple to net asset value,” measures how the company’s enterprise value compares to its Bitcoin holdings.

For Bitcoin treasury firms, it’s the metric that determines survival.

mNAV > 1: Investors pay a premium for the company’s Bitcoin. The firm can raise capital easily by selling stock.

mNAV = 1: Markets value the company equal to the Bitcoin it holds.

mNAV < 1: The company trades at a discount. Investors believe that Bitcoin is worth more than the company itself.

As of Nov. 17, Strategy’s mNAV stands at 0.93 — a level analysts argue becomes dangerous if sustained.

Dom Kwok, a former Goldman Sachs executive, is among those sounding the alarm. According to him, Saylor’s confidence misses a key operational fact:

“Treasury companies cannot operate when mNAV < 1. It’s sell Bitcoin or bust.”

If the discount widens, Strategy may be forced to sell its Bitcoin to service interest payments, especially if BTC drifts deeper into a prolonged downturn.

The situation is not unprecedented.

In May 2022, during one of Bitcoin’s worst bear markets, Strategy’s mNAV bottomed out at 0.71, its lowest ever.

But critics note that the company held a fraction of today’s Bitcoin, and its debt load was far smaller.

The firm’s Bitcoin holdings have grown nearly fivefold since the 2022 crash.

From 129,218 BTC then to 649,870 BTC today.

At current prices, even small market movements now represent billions in unrealized gains and losses.

Saylor argues that this is simply the cost of exposure to a “technically superior” monetary asset.

Analysts counter that, unlike individual investors, public companies cannot sustain a valuation discount without facing structural pressure from lenders, shareholders, and market forces.

With Bitcoin sliding, Ethereum losing key support levels, and over a billion dollars in leverage wiped out in a single day, the market backdrop is rapidly deteriorating.

Whether Saylor is right — or whether Strategy’s balance sheet is nearing its breaking point — may become clear long before Bitcoin revisits new highs.

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