Federal Reserve’s December rate decision has drastically dropped by 60% after October jobs data missing news.

A key Polymarket contract tracking the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision has seen its probability of a cut plunge from nearly 90% in late October to just about 30% today, as traders grapple with the fallout from the missing October jobs report and heightened macro uncertainty.

Related: Bitcoin, XRP crash as markets react to missing Jobs report

The prediction market - which currently shows “No change” at 66% and “25 bps decrease” at 32% - has undergone its steepest repricing since the shutdown began disrupting U.S. economic data flow.

Just three weeks ago, the 25-bps cut contract was trading above 90%, which meant traders were confident that the Fed would resume easing before year-end.

That conviction evaporated on Wednesday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will not release a full October jobs report, citing the record-length government shutdown.

Instead, October data will be merged into the November report, now delayed to Dec.16 - six days after the Fed’s December 9 - 10 meeting.

Without fresh employment data, traders now believe the Fed is more likely to hold. One top Polymarket participant wrote: “No Data, No Cut.”

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The lack of visibility comes as crypto and equities remain volatile. Bitcoin dipped below $88,000 earlier today before recovering above $89,000, while tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, kept broader risk markets on edge ahead of earnings.

UPDATE: Markets are bleeding across the board, here’s the quick rundown:

• $BTC falls to ~$89,068 (▼4.25%)
• $ETH slides to ~$2,908 (▼7.23%)
• $XRP drops to ~$2.06 (▼6.79%)

Broad risk-off sentiment hitting majors hard. #CryptoMarket https://t.co/P4Z4RfdsP5 pic.twitter.com/J1IfNCIgk9

— Roundtable Network (@RTB_io) November 19, 2025

The Fed contract has now logged more than $119 million in volume, making it one of Polymarket’s most-traded macro markets this quarter.

Traders continue to debate whether the Fed can justify easing without employment data, or whether a January cut is now more likely.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Nov 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the Federal Reserve & FOMC News section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.