Stock market today: Dow rises as Fed rate-cut bets jump; bitcoin sinks

US stocks traded mixed on Friday after a week of turbulence amid rising optimism for a December interest-rate cut, while bitcoin kept tumbling as AI worries continued to weigh on investors.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded flat, reversing gains for the two gauges earlier in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained nearly 0.5%. Stocks had closed sharply lower on Thursday in a remarkable turnabout.

US equities had perked up early Friday after the New York Fed president, John Williams, said he sees room for a cut in the "near term." That led rate-cut bets for the Fed's next meeting to spike, with traders pricing in 75% odds of a December cut, up from around 40% on Thursday. Williams' remarks come amid evidence of a deeply divided Fed heading into its final meeting of 2025.

While stocks have seesawed, cryptocurrencies are feeling even greater heat — signs that the risk-off mood still haunts markets. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) sank on Friday to trade as low as $82,000, deepening a slide from record-high levels just more than a month ago. It is now heading for its worst month since the crypto collapse of 2022.

It's shaping up to be a rocky month on Wall Street, too, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) headed for its worst November since 2008 amid mounting concerns over an AI-fueled "bubble." Not even Nvidia (NVDA) and its CEO, Jensen Huang, could allay those fears after the AI chipmaker's blowout earnings reveal on Wednesday.

Read more: Live coverage of corporate earnings

The major US gauges are also set for weekly losses across the board. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for declines of over 2% and 3%, having ended Thursday their lowest levels since September. The blue-chip Dow faces a drop above 2%, too.

On Friday, investors get a final read of November consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, after the preliminary reading found the measure near a three-year low. Other Fed officials are also set to speak, perhaps offering further clarity on the central bank's rate path.

Japanese multinational holding company SoftBank Group (SFTBY) saw shares fall more than 5% Friday after issuing ¥46 billion ($292 million) in bonds, bringing its bond issuance for the year to a record ¥400 billion ($2.6 billion), Bloomberg reported.

The move came after The Information reported Thursday that the company plans to invest up to $3 billion to remodel an EV plant in Ohio that would manufacture equipment for OpenAI's (OPAI.PVT) data centers as part of the Stargate project.

SoftBank has committed to investing $30 billion in OpenAI and recently sold its $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia (NVDA) in a sign of desperation to meet that promise.

SoftBank stock's drop Friday underscores concerns by investors over the entrance of debt in the AI boom. Though SoftBank was already leveraging debt to fund its AI deal spree before the latest selloff in tech equities, investor fears of an AI bubble have mounted as firms like Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL), and xAI (XAAI.PVT) have also started turning to debt.

US consumer sentiment dropped less than expected in November, according to the final results of the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers.

The consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in November from 53.6 in the previous month.

An initial reading on Nov. 7 showed sentiment dropping to a reading of 50.3 for the month, as Americans feared the government shutdown’s effects on the economy and their personal finances. That marked the lowest reading in three years.

Economists had expected the index to pare that loss slightly and record a final reading of 50.6, according to Bloomberg data.

\\"After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading,\\" wrote Joanne Hsu, director of the university's consumer surveys.

Inflation expectations also eased. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down to 4.5% in November from 4.6% in September, while long-term inflation expectations dropped to 3.4% from the previous 3.9%.

\\"However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.\\"

New York Fed president John Williams boosted hopes for a December rate cut from the central bank in a speech on Friday in Santiago, Chile.

“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” he said. (Bloomberg reported on the commentary.)

“Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

The comments caused bets on a rate cut to surge. Shortly after the market open, options traders were pricing in roughly 73% odds of an easing in December, up from about 40% yesterday.

Rate cut bets had already jumped Thursday to 40% from around 30% Wednesday as the September jobs report showed unemployment ticking up slightly.

The trillion-dollar market cap club is no longer just for tech giants and Warren Buffett.

On Friday, Eli Lilly (LLY) joined the party as its shares rose over 1.3%, sending its stock to a record high above $1,050 and giving the healthcare giant a market capitalization north of $1 trillion. This makes Lilly the first healthcare company to top the market cap milestone.

The company's stock has soared in recent years as it rode the GLP-1 boom with its Zepbound and Mounjaro drugs.

Lilly now joins a group of companies that include the \\"Magnificent Seven\\" tech giants, along with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A), TSMC (TSM), and Broadcom (AVGO).

After Eli Lilly, Walmart (WMT) is the next-biggest company in the world with a market cap of around $850 billion. The company reported strong third quarter earnings earlier this week and announced an executive transition earlier in the month.

Following a sharp sell-off this week, US stocks rose Friday at the market open as comments from New York Fed president John Williams boosted market odds of a December rate cut to 75%, from 39% a day ago.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains at the start of the trading session, rising 0.6%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) both added about 0.5%.

Stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday after a turbulent session that saw tech names reverse big gains on the heels of Nvidia's (NVDA) stellar earnings report.

The major gauges were set for weekly losses. The Nasdaq was on track to shed more than 3%, while the Dow and S&P were facing declines of more than 2%.

Netflix (NFLX), Comcast (CMCSA), and Paramount (PSKY) have formally submitted takeover bids for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), multiple outlets reported Thursday evening.

Paramount's offer was the only one aiming to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in its entirety, according to people familiar with the matter, while Comcast and Netflix are interested in acquiring the company's studio and streaming business, which houses franchises such as Batman.

As Warner Bros. Discovery considers the first round of what it previously said were \\"unsolicited\\" offers, it remains on track to split into two companies — one with its global television network and another with its studio and streaming unit — by mid-2026.

Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery, which gained 0.6% in premarket trading, are pacing for gains of 25% over the past month. Year to date, the stock has risen a staggering 116%.

Read more here from Bloomberg.

Economic data: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (November flash reading); S&P Global US services PMI (November flash reading); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (November)

Earnings: BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)

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Gold set for weekly loss after broad sell-off

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Bitcoin heads for worst month since crypto collapse of 2022

Traders search for clues behind biggest S&P reversal since April

Big Tech's debt binge raises risk in race to create an AI world

OpenAI partner Foxconn plans multibillion-dollar US AI push

Russian oil risks being stranded at sea as US sanctions hit

Global chip stocks bounced around after a bruising day on Wall Street as doubts crept in about the artificial intelligence future and whether a bubble may be about to burst.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of the pack, fell another 1.2% earlier in premarket trading but then stemmed those losses to trade roughly flat. The stock is still well off the initial 5% bounce it saw after reporting what was broadly regarded as a solid earnings report on Wednesday.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) declined about 1%, while South Korea-based SK Hynix (000660.KS) fell 8%, and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) shed 5%. In Europe, ASML (ASML) fell over 5%.

In the US, chip designer Broadcom (AVGO) also pared losses to trade roughly flat. Meanwhile, Micron (MU) climbed 0.3% after suffering a loss of over 10% on Thursday. AMD (AMD) stock added 0.2%.

Intel (INTC) also rose after the company's CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, downplayed reports that a recent company hire took intellectual property from TSMC.

BJ's (BJ) stock rose 4% before the bell on Friday after reporting third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings that beat analysts' expectations. The wholesale club operator raised its full-year profit outlook on the strength of its membership income and posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.16, beating the analyst consensus of $1.10.

Investing.com reports:

Revenue reached $5.35 billion, in line with analyst estimates and up 4.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Comparable club sales increased 1.1% YoY, while comparable sales excluding gasoline rose 1.8% with a two-year stack of 5.5%.

Membership fee income, a key driver of profitability, surged 9.8% YoY to $126.3 million, reflecting strong membership acquisition and retention rates. Digitally enabled sales showed robust growth of 30%, representing a two-year stacked growth of 61%.

\\"Our business continues to perform well in a volatile environment and we are maintaining an unwavering focus on what matters most: taking care of families who depend on us,\\" said Bob Eddy, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. \\"We are confident that we can be the destination for value and convenience, and we are entering the holiday season with momentum.\\"

Read more here.

Intuit (INTU) stock rose 3% before the bell on Friday. The software company posted better-than-expected results, reporting $3.89 billion in revenue for the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.3%.

Ross Stores (ROST) stock jumped 3% in premarket trading after raising its full-year earnings guidance as same-store sales jumped in the third quarter.

Strategy (MSTR) stock fell 4% before the bell on Friday. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continued to fall this week and dropped around 10% on Friday. It's also on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022. Strategy is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin.

Gap (GAP) stock rose 4% before the bell on Friday after the apparel company topped earnings expectations and delivered an upbeat outlook.

The retailer reported earnings per share of $0.62, which surpassed estimates, and $3.9 billion in revenue as same-store sales grew 5% year over year. Wall Street was expecting $3.9 billion in revenue and $0.59 per share in earnings, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Gap's three core brands — the namesake Gap brand, Old Navy, and Banana Republic — showed strength during the quarter, while athleisure brand Athleta was the clear laggard. Same-store sales at Gap rose 7% year over year, sales at Old Navy rose 6%, and sales at Banana Republic rose 4%. Athleta's same-store sales, meanwhile, dropped 11%, as Gap said it's applying a \\"reinvigoration playbook\\" to the brand.

Gap also raised the lower end of its full-year revenue forecast. It now sees 1.7% to 2% top-line growth, up from its previous guidance of 1% to 2%.

\\"The strength of our third quarter and quarter-to-date performance positions us well for the holiday selling season and gives us the confidence to increase our full year net sales outlook to the high end of our prior guidance range and raise our full year operating margin outlook,\\" CEO Richard Dickson said in a statement.

Reuters reports:

Tech stocks remain on track for a record $75 billion ​inflow this year, BofA's weekly ‌flow show note said on Friday, highlighting demand for the ‌sector even as it comes under pressure from concerns about lofty valuations.

Tech stocks have been on a surge for much of this year, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) ⁠has risen around 14%‌ and hit an all time high in late October. But they have since ‍stumbled and the tech-heavy index dropped 2% on Thursday.

Nonetheless, tech stocks also saw a $4.4 ​billion inflow in the week to Wednesday, ‌BofA said in their weekly round up of flows in and out of world markets.

Elsewhere, it said crypto funds saw a weekly outflow of $2.2 billion, the second largest outflow on ⁠record.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was trading 9% lower at around $84,000 early Friday morning, on track for its worst monthly performance since a string of corporate collapses rocked the wider crypto sector in 2022.

Bloomberg reports:

Bitcoin has now shed about 23% of its value in November, the most in a single month since June 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The implosion of Do Kwon’s TerraUSD stablecoin project in May of that year sparked a daisy chain of corporate failures that culminated in the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange.

Despite a pro-crypto White House under US President Donald Trump and surging institutional adoption, Bitcoin has plummeted over 30% from its record high set in early October.

The rout follows a crippling bout of liquidations on Oct. 10 that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged token bets, and in turn erased roughly $1.5 trillion from the combined market value of all cryptocurrencies.

The selling pressure has only intensified in the past 24 hours, with a further $2 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, according to data from CoinGlass. ...

“Sentiment across the board is incredibly poor. There appears to be a forced seller in the market and it is unclear how deep this goes,” said Pratik Kala, portfolio manager at Australia-based hedge fund Apollo Crypto.

Read more here.

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