This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

President Donald Trump now finds himself holding the most market-moving question in the AI hardware race: whether Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could resume selling its H200 chips into China. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the call lands directly on Trump's desk, with the president weighing input from a wide cast of advisers and leaning on what Lutnick described as his strong read of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The backdrop is Bloomberg's reporting that officials are in early discussions about potential H200 exportstalks that could reshape the competitive balance of the global AI supply chain if they move forward.

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Inside the administration, the debate reads like a collision between economic ambition and national-security caution. Lutnick framed it as a strategic fork in the road: the US could keep China tied to American technology by allowing some chip sales, or it could pull back and pursue the AI race independently. Any decision to green-light H200 sales would represent a meaningful shift from restrictions put in place in 2022, and Lutnick acknowledged that such a move could draw resistance from lawmakers already pushing legislation to restrict Beijing's access to cutting-edge processors.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huanglong in close contact with Trumpis pushing for reentry after Beijing shut out the company's less-advanced H20 chips earlier this year. Lutnick said Huang has good reasons to want the door reopened, and he emphasized that many others believe the idea should be considered. For investors, the stakes are obvious: a reopened China channel could be a powerful revenue lever, while a continued freeze keeps Nvidia aligned with Washington's national-security stance. Lutnick said Trump is absorbing input from multiple experts and will decide the path forward once he believes he has the full picture.