President Trump said on Tuesday that he urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping to increase the speed and size of its agricultural purchases. Trump said that Xi had “more or less agreed” to do so. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held their first call Monday since the US and China struck a trade and tariff truce last month.

"I think he’s going to very much surprise you on the upside,” Trump told reporters. “I think he’s going to — I asked him."

Trump touted the call as "very good," and said he had accepted an invitation to visit Beijing in April and that Xi would reciprocate with a visit to the US later next year.

The Trump administration is also negotiating a deal that would commit Taiwan to new investment and training of US workers in semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced industries, according to people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, friction between the US and EU continues to build as the two nations look to implement the framework agreement struck earlier this year. The EU is seeking lower tariffs on certain goods, but it rejected a demand to ease tech rules.

The White House is quietly preparing a backup plan as the US Supreme Court is set to decide whether Trump had the authority to issue them in the first place. Trump on Monday claimed the "full benefit" of tariff policies would take effect soon, arguing that foreign buyers who stockpiled inventory would be forced to buy more goods.

"Tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to, without avoidance, and the amounts payable to the USA will SKYROCKET," Trump wrote.

The president invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy blanket tariffs on goods from other countries. But Congress is the branch of the US government with oversight of taxation and spending — not the president. It's not clear when SCOTUS will make its ruling.

Meanwhile, Trump further expanded tariff breaks on Brazilian goods, part of moves to lower costs on some everyday goods as consumers grapple with price struggles.

The push to reduce food prices comes after electoral wins for Democrats across a number of key state and local races where candidates stressed affordability concerns. Trump has also in recent weeks floated the possibility of a tariff "dividend" for many Americans in the form of a $2,000 check.

Trump recently acknowledged that US consumers are "paying something" for his tariffs.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The Trump administration is in talks with Taiwan on a trade deal that would commit Taiwan to fresh investment and training of US workers in chip manufacturing and other advanced industries, according to people familiar with the matter.

Under the agreement, Taiwanese companies, such as TSMC (TSM), the world's largest contract chipmakers, would send new capital and workers to expand their US operations and also train US workers.

Reuters reports:

Taiwan's exports to the United States are currently subject to a 20% tariff, and Taipei has been in talks to reduce that figure as part of ‌an overarching deal with Washington. Semiconductors, vital for all kinds of high-tech products, are currently exempt from tariffs while the U.S builds domestic capacity.

One of the people said the total U.S. investment to be pledged by Taiwan would be smaller than that of its main regional economic rivals, and ‌would include support to help Washington build science park infrastructure drawing on Taiwanese know-how. The person and others spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

South Korea and Japan have pledged a total of $350 billion and $550 billion in investment in the U.S., respectively, under deals to trim U.S. tariffs on most of their goods to 15% from 25%.

It was unclear when the Taiwan deal would close or what specifics would make it into the final agreement, according to the people. They cautioned that any deal terms could change until they were finalized in negotiations. The workforce training aspect of the deal has not previously been reported.

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President Trump held back-to-back calls with the leaders of China and Japan on Monday, in an effort to maintain ties with allies in Tokyo while also trying to keep the one-year trade truce with Beijing in good standing.

Trump held an hourlong conversation with China's President Xi Jinping, marking the first time the two had spoken since their countries agreed to a trade truce. Tensions between Japan and China have escalated over recent weeks due to statements made by Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over Taiwan.

Bloomberg News reports:

Japan’s new prime minister enraged Beijing by suggesting her nation’s troops could be drawn into a Taiwan crisis. Xi told his US counterpart Taiwan’s return to China was an “integral part of the postwar international order,” in a call the Chinese Foreign Ministry later said was “initiated by the US.”

“I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, without making mention of Taiwan. The two leaders discussed Ukraine and elements of the pact struck in South Korea, he added: “Now we can set our sights on the big picture.”

Hours later, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told reporters Trump reached out to reaffirm ties with Tokyo and update her on the situation with China. “We’ve been able to further confirm the close relationship between the US and Japan,” she said. “He told me I’m a very close friend and that I could call him any time.”

Stocks in Hong Kong and China cheered Trump’s efforts to prevent ties spiraling, with a tech rally leading a rise in shares.

The row between Japan and China over Taiwan — the self-ruled island Beijing considers its territory — has injected fresh uncertainty into the Trump-Xi relationship. Any hint Washington is siding with Tokyo could imperil a truce that saw the US lower fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing agree to suspend certain restrictions on the export of rare earths.

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The Trump administration will announce an aid package for US farmers and a deal on Chinese soybean purchases within two weeks, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday.

Reuters reports:

The administration of President Donald Trump has said for months that it would issue aid for farmers hit by low crop prices and trade disputes, but has not yet issued any plan or amount for the aid. U.S. farmers lost billions in soybean sales this year as top buyer China turned to Brazil and Argentina amid tense trade talks with Washington.

\\"We'll have an announcement probably in the next week or two on what that's going to look like,\\" Rollins, the head of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, told CNBC of the farmer aid.

The American Farm Bureau Federation said on Monday that the aid is \\"urgently needed\\" as farmers face the compounding pressures of higher input costs and lower crop prices.

In October, after Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans through January, according to the Trump administration. China purchased nearly 1.6 million metric tons of soybeans over three days last week, its largest single-week tally in two years, buoying crop prices.

Read more here.

Reuters reports:

Two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according ‌to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters.

A third vessel was en route to a Texas Gulf Coast grain ‌terminal to be loaded with China-bound U.S. sorghum in the coming days in what will be the first American shipment of the feed grain to China since mid-March, the shipping schedule showed.

U.S. farmers and grain traders have been ⁠awaiting shipments to China to ‌resume after Beijing shunned U.S. crops for months due to a trade war with Washington, costing U.S. farmers ‍billions on lost trade.

China has booked nearly 2 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans and a smaller volume of wheat since a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in ​South Korea in late October, when the White House said Beijing agreed to ‌buy 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of the year. China has not confirmed the deal and questions about the agreement or when any sales would ship have fueled uncertainty in grain markets.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

The European Union’s antitrust chief ruled out easing the bloc’s tech rulebook, after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Brussels needed to change its digital regulations in order to get a deal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs.

Lutnick said in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday that the US would grant the EU a “cool steel and aluminum” agreement in exchange for rolling back its tech rules. The US imposes a 50% levy on European imports of the metals.

“The European digital rulebook is not up for negotiation,” Teresa Ribera, a vice president at the European Commission, said in a statement late Monday. “We, Europeans, have adopted our rules to ensure fair markets and to protect consumers rights while securing Europe’s digital future.”

Lutnick’s direct linkage between steel duties and tech rules puts the EU in a difficult position as it struggles to win tariff exemptions from the US. President Donald Trump has chided the EU — which he has said was created to “screw” the US — over its trade surplus in goods and perceived barriers to American trade.

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President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke Monday for the first time since the US and China agreed to a trade truce. Though the call touched on trade issues, Bloomberg reports the focus was on China's increased tensions with Japan over the self-governing island of Taiwan:

Xi told Trump that the return of Taiwan to China is a key part of the post-World War II international order, according to a statement on the call. The Chinese leader also said the two countries should keep the positive momentum generated during their meeting last month in South Korea and expand cooperation, the statement said. [...]

An ongoing row between Japan and China centered around Taiwan threatens to inject fresh tensions into the Trump-Xi relationship and complicate ties, after the world’s two largest economies reached a trade truce in October.

That deal saw Washington lower tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing agree to remove certain restrictions on the export of rare earths. Any flare-up between the US and China could cause further uncertainty for markets and business leaders.

New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said earlier this month that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could result in a military response from Tokyo. Beijing views the island as its own territory and has denounced Takaichi’s remarks, demanding a retraction.

Since then, China has issued a no-travel advisory for Japan, suspended the screening of some Japanese films and banned the import of Japanese seafood. Both countries have also stepped up military drills, with China announcing patrols in the East China Sea and Japan announcing plans to deploy missiles to an area near Taiwan.

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US Commerce Secretary Lutnick has told the EU that before the US considers lowering tariffs on steel and aluminum the EU needs to change its digital regulations.

“We are talking to them about” rolling back EU tech rules, Lutnick said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “In exchange for that, we will come up with a cool steel and aluminum deal.”

Bloomberg News reports:

Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Brussels on Monday for their first official visit since reaching a trade deal with the EU in July.

The deal set a 15% US tariff on many EU goods, while the EU pledged to erase tariffs on US industrial products as well as some agriculture and food items. The two sides also vowed to keep working to lower other tariffs, including a 50% levy on EU steel and aluminum, which the bloc has now matched with its own 50% tariff on steel imports above a certain quota.

Read more here.

Bloomberg News reports:

Russia’s flagship Urals crude is being offered to India’s refiners at the cheapest price in at least two years after US sanctions on top producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC upended a lucrative trade.

The price of Urals for Indian refiners has slipped to a discount of as much as $7 a barrel to Dated Brent on a delivered basis, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. The offer is for cargoes loading in December and arriving in January, they added.

Most Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude that would arrive after sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect last week, all but ending a trade that flourished after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as India took advantage of a steady flow of cheaper oil.

Read more here.

Contrary to earlier reports, the European Union said that no discussions to lower tariffs on steel and other products will take place with US officials on Monday.

“Today it’s not about negotiations, it’s about the stock-taking exercise,” EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic told reporters before the bloc’s trade ministers met with senior US officials.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are in Brussels for the first time since the EU and US reached a trade agreement in July.

Earlier reports had indicated that the EU was preparing to urge the US to implement more of the July trade deal, such as reducing US tariffs on EU steel and removing them from EU goods, such as wine and spirits.

EU ministers plan to discuss pressing issues such as Chinese rare earth and chip export restrictions. Under the trade deal agreed between the US and EU in July, the US decided to set 15% tariffs on most EU goods. But while insisting the process is on course, there are some key items on which it wants to see progress.

Bloomberg News reports:

The deal set a 15% US tariff on many EU goods, while the EU pledged to erase tariffs on US industrial products as well as some agriculture and food items. The two sides also vowed to keep working to lower other tariffs, including a 50% levy on EU steel and aluminum, which the bloc has now matched with its own 50% tariff on steel imports above a certain quota.

Lutnick and Greer will discuss the pact over lunch with EU trade ministers.

“This is also about the political assessment of the EU-US bilateral relations,” Sefcovic said.

EU officials are expected to press Lutnick and Greer over Washington’s decision to expand its 50% steel and aluminum tariff to more than 400 EU products, which prompted concerns the trade deal is being hollowed out.

The US has expressed its own concerns that the EU is not implementing the deal fast enough, given the European Parliament has not even formally ratified the pact. Washington is also pushing to dilute the bloc’s digital and environmental regulations.

Read more here.

At the G-20 summit in South Africa, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the world can make progress on issues without the US, which is boycotting the gathering at President Donald Trump's direction.

Bloomberg reports:

The summit “brought together nations representing three-quarters of the world’s population, two-thirds of global GDP and three-quarters of the world’s trade, and that’s without the United States formally attending,” Carney told a press conference in Johannesburg on Sunday. “It’s a reminder that the center of gravity in the global economy is shifting.”

Carney took office earlier this year after running a campaign that pushed back against Trump’s imposition of tariffs on its northern neighbor and suggestions it could become part of US territory. Carney has focused on reducing the Canadian economy’s reliance on the US.

At the press conference, he detailed his attempts to strengthen ties with nations ranging from South Africa to India and China.

Carney emphasized that he won’t have his agenda dictated by Trump.

“I’ll speak to him again when it matters,” he said. “I don’t have a burning issue to speak with the president about right now. When America wants to come back and have the discussions on the trade side, we will have those discussions.”

Read more here.

As the US Supreme Court rules against President Trump's tariffs, the White House is quietly working on a backup plans, Bloomberg reports, which would aim to quickly replace the tariffs.

Both the Commerce Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative have studied Plan B options if the court rules against the administration, according to US officials familiar with the planning. Those include Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act, which grant the president unilateral ability to impose duties.

The replacements come with risks — they tend to be either slower or more limited than the wide-ranging powers Trump has asserted so far and could face their own legal challenges. The administration is holding out hope that it will win the case outright. Trump has repeatedly urged the justices to uphold his country-based tariffs, which he imposed by citing an economic emergency.

Still, the preparations are the latest signal the administration is bracing for a potential unfavorable outcome, after the court appeared skeptical of Trump’s global tariffs during this month’s oral arguments. They also show Trump’s commitment to imposing tariffs, including through untested means. One administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that tariffs will remain a core part of Trump’s economic agenda regardless of the court’s decision.

“We’re waiting for a decision. We hope it’s going to be good, but if it’s not, we’ll do — we always find ways, you know, we find ways,” Trump said Wednesday.

The White House declined to comment on the specifics of its preparations but acknowledged it’s seeking “new ways” to maintain Trump’s trade policy.

It's not clear when the court will rule.

Read more here.

When President Trump imposed 40% tariffs on Brazil, in addition to a 10% \\"reciprocal\\" tariff, back in July, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva suspected that the US president had a weak hand and would eventually have to retreat.

It appears he was right. Trump has now removed the 40% tariffs he imposed on Brazil's agricultural products — his hand forced after US consumers complained of rising prices on everyday food products like beef, bananas, and coffee.

Bloomberg News reports:

“Everybody panicked and got nervous, but I don’t usually make decisions when I have a fever,” Lula said at an event in Sao Paulo after the exemptions were unveiled. “Today I’m happy.”

In an executive order, Trump exempted dozens of Brazilian food products, including coffee and beef, from the 40% increased tariffs he imposed in an ill-fated attempt to help former President Jair Bolsonaro dodge a coup attempt trial.

Together with prior exemptions, the move will leave many of the nation’s major exports free from heightened US duties, a victory for an agricultural powerhouse that ranks as the world’s largest beef and coffee producer and counts the US as its No. 2 trade partner.

It’s an even bigger win for Lula, the 80-year-old leftist who staked his once-struggling presidency on the fight with Trump, and may have just provided a model for how similarly-situated nations should approach the combative American leader.

Trump is notoriously unpredictable and doesn’t like to lose, and broader trade talks are ongoing. But for now, at least, Lula appears to have triumphed without making any major concessions, a feat few others have managed.

To the Brazilian and his team, it’s vindication of a strategy that mixed outright defiance with patience and a dash of charm, a cocktail that allowed Lula to outlast a counterpart who’d underestimated the domestic cost of a trade war with a nation that produces so many goods Americans love to consume.

Read more here.

Reliance, India's largest private oil refiner, has announced that it will cease using Russian crude at one of its largest refineries, in an effort to comply with US and EU sanctions.

The FT reports:

India had become the biggest buyer of cheap seaborne Russian crude since the full-blown war in Ukraine started in 2022. US President Donald Trump this year criticised India for supporting Moscow and imposed an extra tariff on New Delhi as trade tensions soared.

Despite the pressure from Washington, Indian companies had continued to import oil from Russia until Trump escalated sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil in October. The sanctions took effect on Friday.

Reliance is stopping Russian oil imports ahead of expanded EU restrictions on crude from Russia. Beginning on January 21 2026, EU companies will be banned from buying and importing petroleum products made from Russian crude from third countries.

Read more here.

As noted below, the Congressional Budget Office cut its estimate of tariff revenue by $1 trillion on Thursday.

When the CBO ran the numbers in August and predicted President Trump's tariffs would lower the deficit by $4 trillion, the president's policy had increased the effective tariff rate by 18 percentage points, CBO director Phillip Swagel stated. However, when they reran the numbers this week, finding that tariff revenue would reduce the deficit by $3 trillion, the increase was down to a 14 percentage point bump.

Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports on why the numbers were revised lower:

The change is partly a reflection of how Trump's up-and-down tariff moves this year have more recently trended downward. The CBO cited the recent lowering of duties on goods from China, the European Union, and Japan, as well as the recent loosening of tariffs on auto parts, lumber, and certain agricultural products.

But the revisions also reflected a deeper understanding of how Trump's tariffs are rippling across the US economy — and collecting less revenue than was initially assumed.

At the same time, Trump is ramping up his promises for what tariff revenue can deliver. The president has continued to promise that tariff money can deliver $2,000 checks to Americans and also \\"pay down debt.\\" It's a claim that few observers gave credence to, even before these CBO revisions.

Read more here.

Global coffee prices fell on Friday after President Trump removed 40% tariffs on imports of Brazilian agricultural products, including coffee and cocoa. The latest move from the US president comes after growing concern from the American consumer around rising prices of food products, such as coffee, bananas and beef.

US retail prices have surged by an annual 40% in September, due in part to tariffs and rising food prices.

Reuters reports:

Trump's overnight tariff removal on Brazil follows ⁠a similar order announced last ‌Friday to roll back duties on coffee and scores of other agricultural products from producing countries.

Top coffee grower Brazil supplies ‍the U.S., the world's largest coffee consumer, with about a third of its beans.

At 1017 GMT, arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange, used as a ​benchmark to price physical coffee around the world, were down 4.6%‌ to $3.5925 per lb, having earlier plunged more than 6% to two-month lows.

Futures prices for robusta coffee beans, typically used in instant coffee rather than in the roast and ground blends where arabica dominates, were down 5% to $4,400 a metric ton, having earlier sunk 8%.

\\"(⁠We) need the market to digest this.​ More downside? Maybe, but I do ​not believe we'll go below $3/lb. If anything I would be a buyer into whatever market dip comes from this news,\\"‍ said a Europe-⁠based trader at a top global coffee trade house

Read more here.

The AP reports:

Japan’s global exports rose 3.7% in October from a year earlier while imports from the world edged up 0.6%, according to government data released Friday.

Exports to the U.S. dipped 3.1%, marking the seventh straight month of year-on-year declines mainly due to higher U.S. tariffs, Finance Ministry data showed.

President Donald Trump announced a trade framework with Japan in July, placing a 15% tax on goods imported from that nation. That’s lower than the 25% rate Trump initially said would kick in starting in August. Previously, tariffs on most goods stood at 2.5%.

It's a heavy burden for an export dependent nation that is a major U.S. ally, but shipments to the rest of Asia are helping to offset those lost sales.

Japan's soybean imports from around the world surged 37.3% from a year earlier, while imporyts of iron and steel products dipped 17.1%.

Read more here.

President Trump's tariff increases on imports from foreign countries will reduce US deficits by $1 trillion less than previously estimated, according to data from the non-‌partisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO said on Thursday that the deficit will be reduced by $3 trillion if these measures are maintained through 2035, instead of the $4 trillion the agency projected in August.

The CBO based its latest estimate on tariffs imposed by Trump between January 6 and November 15. The agency said primary deficits would be reduced by $2.5 trillion over 11 years, with government borrowing costs expected to fall $500 billion as a result.

Reuters reports:

The revision was mainly based ‌on new data, with the remainder stemming from the Trump administration's recent changes to its tariff policies.

Some federal courts have ruled that the administration overstepped its authority in imposing the tariffs, as the U.S.⁠ Constitution grants Congress powers over ​trade policy. The U.S. ​Supreme Court is reviewing those decisions.

Read more here.

President Trump may struggle to find many supporters for his $2,000 tariff dividend, which would allow his administration to distribute checks to the American people in an effort to ease the cost-of-living crisis. Trump has previously stated that tariffs will bring in billions of dollars in revenue.

However, economists have suggested that Trump's proposal will, in fact, cost hundreds of billions of dollars more than what tariffs will bring in annually.

Yahoo Finance's Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul looks at why Trump's dividend talk should be taken seriously.

And GOP lawmakers are treading carefully after Republicans passed the budget-busting One Big Beautiful Bill earlier this year, with many wary of adding another wave of red ink.

But even as the hurdles are high, Trump's record of getting his pet ideas enacted is leading few to dismiss the talk entirely.

After all, it was Trump who signed the first COVID-era stimulus checks into law (and reveled in the fact that they had his name affixed to them). More recently, his 2024 campaign trail ideas, like no taxes on tips and overtime, were seen as fantastical at the time but are now the law of the land.

Another factor suggesting that a real push could be in the offing is Trump and his party's ongoing challenges around affordability issues, with the president often mentioning checks as an effort that he is undertaking in part to improve Americans' views of his economy.

Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy, even called rebate checks \\"very likely\\" this week in a note to clients. He pointed out that the idea could be included in an upcoming reconciliation bill on Capitol Hill, which can be passed with only Republican votes.

Read more here.

Smaller selections and higher prices await shoppers looking for the perfect wine for their holiday dinners, CNN reports.

Bottled wine prices have risen nearly 20% over the past 25 years and 8% over the past decade, according to the latest government data. Several reasons are to blame, including climate change, inflation and rising production costs.

Tariffs are affecting the bottom line even more for importers of wine. Elenteny Imports, a logistics and distribution company that works with 9,000 retailers and restaurants, said wine sales are down 13% year over year.

Wine volume consumed in the United States declined 3% between 2019 and 2024, and it’s expected to fall another 4% from 2024 to 2029, according to IWSR, an alcohol data insights firm.

“For casual drinking occasions, wine has often been the choice for drinkers who prefer not to drink beer. But wine can be expensive and only comes in larger bottles,” said Marten Lodewijks, president of IWSR.

Read more here.

From Bloomberg:

An executive order Trump signed on Thursday would exempt dozens of popular food items from a 40% levy he imposed on goods from Brazil earlier this year. Last week, the president knocked a separate 10% duty off those items, but did not originally include the higher rate, which was intended to punish the country over its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

The changes are effective retroactive to Nov. 13. A spokesperson for the Brazilian government said it’s analyzing the order.

The decision could help bring down prices of coffee, orange juice and beef in particular, providing a salve for Americans who have struggled under the strain of high grocery bills and given Trump increasingly poor marks over his handling of the economy. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of coffee and beef. Prior to the implementation of tariffs, it was the largest supplier of coffee to the US. Shipments of Brazilian beef to the US had also been increasing before the levies, due to a cattle shortage that had affected the North American industry.

Tariffs on those items from Brazil, a major South American agricultural power, have exacerbated ongoing shortages in both markets that pushed consumer prices to records. The pullback is a major victory for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose government has long sought to persuade Trump to drop the duties.

Read more here.