(Bloomberg) -- Oil steadied after closing at a one-month low on White House optimism that a Ukrainian peace deal is getting closer, a development that could ease restrictions on Russian oil in an already-oversupplied market.

Brent was near $62 a barrel. US President Donald Trump said “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement,” as he sent negotiators to more meetings, while the Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said talks in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.”

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Much of Russia’s oil and fuel is subject to heavy Western sanctions, with US restrictions on the two biggest producers kicking in last week. However, China, India and Turkey have been eager buyers of the discounted crude, so the impact on global prices from any lifting of curbs is hard to gauge.

“Minute adjustments between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU on proposed peace deals have been carefully digested by the market,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note. “Any positive signs of collaboration or agreement have resulted in short-term sell-offs, while the dialing-back of enthusiasm has bolstered prices.”

Trump’s push has been met with international doubts about whether it would yield a deal. Little suggests that the progress made would necessarily avoid the same pitfall as previous rounds: What satisfies Ukraine is likely a deal-breaker for Russia, and vice-versa. The Kremlin said it’s too early to say a peace deal is close, according to Interfax.

Oil has retreated by more than a fifth since the middle of June as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored barrels, while producers outside of the group also pumped more. Worldwide crude supply is expected to exceed demand by a record 4 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency forecast this month.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said a peace deal may shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of $56 next year. “That would put Brent in 2026 in the low $50s,” analyst Daan Struyven told Bloomberg TV.

In the US, meanwhile, a report from the American Petroleum Institute showed that nationwide crude inventories fell by a modest 1.9 million barrels last week. Official data are due later on Wednesday.

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