Novavax, Inc. recently announced at the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025 that it is shifting its focus from direct COVID-19 commercial operations to an expanded research and development strategy, particularly in collaboration with Sanofi.

This pivot comes alongside an increased full-year 2025 adjusted revenue projection, reflecting a greater reliance on licensing and royalty revenues as product sales decline.

We'll explore how Novavax’s emphasis on research partnerships and royalty channels could alter its future investment outlook.

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For investors to remain confident in Novavax, Inc., belief in the company’s ability to generate stable growth through R&D partnerships and royalty streams, especially as product sales decline, is central. The recent shift toward expanded research with Sanofi is a clear move to address weakening COVID-19 vaccine demand, but it does not materially change the short-term risk that future revenues hinge on partners meeting regulatory and commercial milestones as projected.

One closely related announcement is the November 4 transfer of U.S. marketing authorization for Nuvaxovid™ to Sanofi, which triggered a US$25 million milestone payment and solidified Novavax’s pivot to a royalty-based model. This transaction underscores the increasing reliance on collaborations and external commercialization as immediate drivers of company revenue, and ties directly into current catalysts around monetizing partnerships and enabling new revenue streams.

By contrast, investors should not overlook how delays or underperformance from partners in global vaccine launches could quickly...

Read the full narrative on Novavax (it's free!)

Novavax's narrative projects $348.5 million revenue and $55.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires a -31.4% yearly revenue decline and a $366.9 million decrease in earnings from $422.8 million today.

Uncover how Novavax's forecasts yield a $13.11 fair value, a 96% upside to its current price.

Ten members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Novavax’s fair value between US$4.59 and US$100, showing strikingly different outlooks. With future revenue tied closely to partners achieving regulatory and commercial targets, explore how your perspective aligns with these diverse views.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Novavax - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Our free Novavax research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Novavax's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NVAX.

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