US stocks moved higher on Wednesday, notching their best four-day streak since May heading into the Thanksgiving holiday as Wall Street optimism grew over the odds of an interest-rate cut next month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.7%, over 300 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also moved up 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added nearly 0.8%, following Tuesday's sharp gains.

Tech names have again helped to buoy the market. Alphabet (GOOG) shares slipped from record highs while Nvidia (NVDA) popped more than 1%, with both tech names reversing course from the previous session as competition within the AI chip space grew. Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL) also rose.

At the same time, investors continue to closely watch for influences on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, given the US shutdown-driven data drought. The central bank's Beige Book out Wednesday will shed light on how the US economy is performing region-by-region. It will be scoured for clues to consumer spending and the labor market as the Fed gets ready for its meeting in two weeks.

Markets are pricing in an over 80% probability of a December quarter-point rate cut after delayed September readings on retail sales and wholesale inflation fell short. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week to their lowest since April, Department of Labor data out Wednesday showed.

Meanwhile, palace intrigue at the central bank continues to pick up steam, with five finalists on President Trump's shortlist to take Chair Jerome Powell's place next year. Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economic adviser, has emerged as the frontrunner as the search enters its final weeks.

Markets are closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving, and open until 1 p.m. on Friday.

Stocks notched their fourth straight day of gains on Wednesday as rate cut hopes fueled risk-on sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.7%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also climbed 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added around 0.8%.

Tech stocks led the gains as investors went risk on this week. Meanwhile bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose as high as $90,000.

Markets now assign more than an 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December after delayed September retail sales and wholesale inflation came in softer than expected.

Labor market data also shows softness, which could sway policymakers toward a cut.

The markets will be closed on Thanksgiving, but will reopen until 1 p.m. on Friday.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose as high as $90,000 on Wednesday, but some strategists warned the price action isn't necessarily a sign of a meaningful V-shaped recovery despite a risk-on mood in the stock market.

While the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) aimed at a fourth straight day of gains amid increasing investor bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appeared to be steadily increasing after hitting an $81,000 last Friday, its lowest level since April.

Despite the recent bounce, bitcoin is down roughly 28% from its all-time high north of $126,000 in October,

While the fourth quarter is often the strongest for bitcoin, \\"history shows those gains rarely come without a catalyst,\\" strategists at Singapore-based 10X Research said in a note.

Read more here.

Francisco Velasquez report:

AI stocks aren't in a bubble — they're just getting started.

That's the message from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who argues that investors are misreading one of the most significant technology build-outs since the dawn of the internet.

\\"[It's] still very early in this AI revolution,\\" Ives told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. \\"Only 3% of companies in the US have gone down the AI path. Globally, it's less than 1%.\\"

In other words, the hype may be loud, but adoption is nowhere near late-cycle froth.

That forms the premise of Ives' new report, which argues that enterprise spending, government demand, and chip shortages — not speculation — are driving valuations.

Read more here.

The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and bond markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The stock market will reopen on Friday for a shortened trading day, ending at 1 p.m. ET. The bond market will close early at 2 p.m. ET on Friday.

After this week, Christmas is the remaining holiday this year that the market observes. Markets will close early (at 1 p.m.) on Dec. 24 and remain closed the following day.

Read more about the stock market holidays in 2025 and 2026s.

Yahoo Finance's Claire Boston reports:

Mortgage rates dropped slightly this week amid new signals that the labor market is weakening and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month.

The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.23% through Tuesday, according to Freddie Mac data, down from 6.26% a week earlier. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 5.51%, from 5.54%.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely track, has been falling as odds of a benchmark rate cut in December are on the rise. In recent days, New York Fed president John Williams, San Francisco Federal Reserve president Mary Daly, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller have all signaled in interviews or speeches that they would support cutting next month.

Read more here.

Commodities strategists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs believe 2026 and 2027 are going to be tough years for the oil industry.

The banks' commodities desks have both set base case calls for the price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, to drop into the $50s per barrel, with potential bearish situations pushing prices into the $40s, or even $30s, per barrel.

Futures contracts on Brent (BZ=F) started the year trading hands in the high $70s per barrel, but prices have steadily fallen to trade around $61.75 on Wednesday. Prices on West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F), the US benchmark currently trading at around $58, have moved in tandem.

Under the base case set by JPMorgan's commodities desk, led by Natasha Kaneva, Brent crude will fall to $58 per barrel in 2026, with WTI to trade $4 lower at each target. Under Goldman Sachs' base case, the bank's commodities desk, led by Daan Struyven, sees Brent and WTI trading hands next year at $56 and $52, respectively.

\\"At the risk of flogging a very dead horse, our message to the market has remained consistent since June 2023,\\" JPMorgan strategists wrote. \\"While demand is robust, supply is simply too abundant.\\"

Analysts at Macquarie have made a similar prediction,

\\"As a base expectation, [current market conditions] sets up for punishing oversupply in Q4 '25/Q1 '26, which we believe may necessitate a pronounced step lower in oil prices and OPEC policy pivot,\\" Macquarie analysts wrote in a note to clients.

The base cases from both banks assume that the market will be forced to react and cut back on production.

If market adjustments aren't made, however, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs see oil potentially trading hands in the $40s and low $50s, respectively — prices far below the breakeven point of around $60 per barrel for oil and gas operators.

Though JPMorgan noted that the situation looks unlikely.

\\"The magnitude suggested by market imbalances is unlikely to fully materialize in practice. Adjustments are expected on both the supply and demand sides,\\" a JPMorgan strategist wrote.

Weekly claims for unemployment benefits dropped to their lowest level since April, the US Labor Department reported Wednesday. The data marks the latest sign that while employers aren't laying off workers, they're also hiring less.

During the week ending Nov. 22, initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised number of 222,000. The four-week average for initial jobless claims decreased slightly to 223,750 claims.

Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending Nov. 15 reached 1.96 million, an increase from the previous week's level of 1.95 million, indicating that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs.

Wednesday's jobless data comes as several prominent companies have announced layoffs in recent weeks, which are likely to take time to appear in official data. One of the most recent examples came on Tuesday, when HP Inc. (HPQ) announced plans to cut 6,000 jobs.

Yet, official data so far hasn't shown a dramatic deterioration in the US labor market, complicating the Federal Reserve's next policy decision.

Robinhood (HOOD) shares jumped 8.5% Wednesday morning following the news that the investing platform is launching a futures and derivatives exchange in partnership with Susquehanna International Group through the acquisition of LedgerX.

The move is seen as a boon to the company as it looks to strengthen its foothold in the increasingly popular prediction markets.

The jump puts HOOD shares up more than 230% for the year.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock added 2% Wednesday morning, mostly recovering its 2.6% drop during the prior trading session as a potential AI chip deal between Google (GOOG) and Meta (META) pressured shares.

In response to the news and concerns of rising competition from its own customer (Google), Nvidia said Tuesday that it's \\"a generation ahead\\" of rivals.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon also responded to the news in a note to clients Tuesday saying that Nvidia's \\"GPUs are clearly not going anywhere\\" and that the potential Google-Meta deal (reported by The Information) was a sign of sky-high demand for AI computing power but not necessarily a big competitive threat for Nvidia.

Alphabet fell fractionally Wednesday after adding 1.6% Tuesday, which had put the Google parent company closer to achieving a $4 trillion market cap.

Tech led US stocks higher at the open on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbing more than 0.6%.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added nearly 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up 0.3%.

The moves built on gains in stocks on Friday, Monday and Tuesday as the market rebounded from sharp losses notched last week.

JPMorgan's stock market strategists think 2026 will be another good year for US investors.

The firm's equity strategy team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, set a year-end price target of 7,500 for the S&P 500 in 2026.

Should the Federal Reserve continue cutting interest rates, however, the bank thinks the S&P 500 could surpass 8,000 in the year ahead.

\\"Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy (i.e. OBBBA),\\" the firm wrote in a note to clients published Tuesday.

\\"More so, the earnings benefit tied to deregulationand broadening AI-related productivity gains remain underappreciated.\\"

JPMorgan's 7,500 call for next year is primarily supported by expected earnings growth of between 13%-15% over the next two years. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies grew earnings by 13.4% from the prior year, according to FactSet data.

The firm's baseline outlook also sees the Fed cutting rates two more times — markets were pricing in an 85% chance the Fed cuts rates next month as of Wednesday morning — before an extended pause. An improving inflation outlook that prompts more rate cuts is what JPMorgan sees catalyzing a rise toward, and above, 8,000 for the benchmark index.

The firm's call that the S&P 500 will reach 7,500 next year also makes it the second Wall Street bank this week to put that target on the index for 2026, with strategists at HSBC making the same forecast in a note published Monday.

The S&P 500 closed Tuesday's trading session at 6,765.

Both firms also note that the US economy is becoming increasingly K-shaped, with wider extremes between the haves and have nots reshaping spending habits and consumer confidence.

This most recent earnings season showed that consumers on the lower-end of the income scale continue to struggle — or in retailer lingo, remain \\"choiceful\\" — while those with greater means (and often more exposure to the stock market), are spending freely.

For stock investors, this dynamic is also likely to keep sentiment \\"prone to sharp swings,\\" in JPMorgan's view, as this unhealthy economic backdrop is contrasted with an improving outlook for large firms set to benefit from a broadening out of AI trends across industries.

\\"Both corporates and governments across the world are racing to invest in AI in search of productivity gains and out of fear of becoming obsolete,\\" JPMorgan's team writes.

\\"The AI sector's momentum is spreading geographically and across a diverse list of industries, from Technology and Utilities to Banks, Health Care and Logistics, and in the process creating winners and losers.

\\"The challenge — this disruption is unfolding within an already unhealthy K-shaped economy, with AI expected to amplify this polarization even further. The AI 'Wall of Worry' is likely to persist for years to come.\\"

Robinhood (HOOD) announced a new joint venture with Susquehanna late on Tuesday that will see the two partners take over a futures and derivatives exchange from ​Miami International Holdings, clearing the way for Robinhood to launch its own prediction market.

Robinhood and Susquehanna will take a 90% stake in LedgerX, ‌which Miami International Holdings acquired from FTX in 2023 for $50 million as part of the crypto exchange's bankruptcy proceedings, according to Reuters. The exchange is already regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The move is aimed at expanding Robinhood's push into prediction markets and event contracts trading. The platform already offers prediction market contracts through Kalshi.

It comes after a court ruling in September of last year removed a ban on election betting, which has led to the swelling of prediction markets and activity in the industry.

“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” said Robinhood's general manager of futures, JB Mackenzie. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.”

Robinhood stock jumped over 4% ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday.

Read more here.

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Nov. 21; Initial jobless claims (week ended Nov. 22); Durable goods orders (September); MNI Chicago PMI (November); Federal Reserve's Beige Book

Earnings: Deere & Company (DE), Li Auto (LI), Diginex Limited (DGNX), New Fortress Energy (NFE)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:

HSBC's big S&P call reflects Wall Street faith in AI trade

Toyota has figured out what makes Trump happy. Here's its endgame.

Nvidia denies it's 'circular financing'. 2 big short sellers disagree.

Who'll replace Fed Chair Powell? A closer look at Trump's finalists.

Nvidia is still sinking as doubts about its AI dominance grow

Trump team negotiates Taiwan chip-worker training deal

Tesla struggles to course correct from sales skid

Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban writes in today's Morning Brief newsletter:

Wall Street still expects the rush to join the AI buildout will continue in the year ahead.

That's the central idea behind HSBC's (HSBC) 2026 projection for the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC), which the firm expects to hit 7,500 by next December. The bullish forecast gives investors another vote of confidence in the AI-driven rally that, at times, has appeared to wobble under the strain of bubble fears, but has remained intact.

\\"AI capex spend should continue to dominate in 2026 as the AI arms race intensifies,\\" HSBC analysts Nicole Inui, Alastair Pinder, and Matt Borchetta wrote in the report.

HSBC's target implies another year of double-digit gains, echoing the tech boom of the late 1990s.

Read more here.

Deere and Co.'s (DE) stock fell 5% before the bell on Wednesday after its outlook fell short of analysts' expectations. Uncertainty persists regarding the timing of a recovery in the US farm economy.

Bloomberg News reports:

The world’s biggest farm machinery maker said net income in the fiscal year that started Nov. 1 will be between $4 billion and $4.75 billion, below the average Bloomberg estimate for $5.31 billion.

“Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle,” Chief Executive Officer John May said in a statement.

The weak outlook for the maker of iconic green and yellow tractors comes as farmers have been hit hard by low crop prices and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Despite a recent deal between the US and China to boost shipments of American crops to Asia, there’s still questions on whether the sales will be enough to shake the US farm economy out of a years-long slump.

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports:

Nvidia (NVDA) sent a memo to Wall Street analysts over the weekend arguing that it is not engaged in vendor financing, a controversial practice in which suppliers invest in or extend loans to their own customers.

Famed short sellers Jim Chanos and Michael Burry aren't so sure.

Nvidia wrote a seven-page document — first reported by Barron's on Tuesday morning — rebuffing claims that it invests in its own customers to inflate its revenue. The memo was written in response to a newsletter from a little-known Substack author last week claiming that the $5 trillion AI chipmaker is engaged in a \\"circular financing scheme\\" — using vendor financing to boost sales — drawing parallels between Nvidia and famous dot-com era accounting frauds committed by Enron and Lucent.

... Chanos, who is famous for predicting the fall of Enron, thinks the comparison between Nvidia and Lucent bears weight.

\\"They're [Nvidia is] putting money into money-losing companies in order for those companies to order their chips,\\" Chanos told Yahoo Finance in an interview.

Read more here.

Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) stock continued to rise in premarket trading on Wednesday and was up more than 1% following the report that Google is in talks to supply chips to Meta (META).

Workday (WDAY) stock fell more than 5% before the bell on Wednesday after the company reported lukewarm third quarter subscription revenue, a sign of softer demand.

HP (HP) stock fell 5% during premarket trading on Wednesday following the tech company's news that it will reduce its headcount by 4,000 to 6,000 people. HP also issued a lower-than-expected earnings projection for the new fiscal year.

Shares of HP Inc. (HPQ) slid over 5% in premarket trading as Wall Street assessed its quarterly earnings released late Tuesday.

The tech company plans a sweeping AI initiative tied to new restructuring efforts that are expected to eliminate up to 6,000 jobs worldwide and to generate $1 billion in cost savings in coming years.

Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports:

HP Inc. (HPQ) is doubling down on artificial intelligence — and betting it will replace thousands of jobs in the process.

\\"There are many things that today we have to do using people ... that in the future AI will do better and will do faster,\\" CEO Enrique Lores told Yahoo Finance.

... But the ambitious AI plan did not distract from what was ultimately a mixed quarter.

Fourth quarter revenue rose 4.2% to $14.6 billion, slightly below the $14.8 billion analysts expected, according to Bloomberg data. Adjusted EPS fell 3% to $0.93, in line with estimates. ...

Personal Systems — HP's PC business — was a bright spot, with revenue up 8% to $10.4 billion, helped by Windows 10's end-of-life upgrade cycle. Units rose 7%.

The printing segment continued to slide. Revenue fell 4% to $4.3 billion; supplies dropped 4% and hardware units fell 12%.

Read more here and watch the full interview with Lores and Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi below.

Dell (DELL) shares rose nearly 6% in premarket trading after the company slightly missed Wall Street's revenue estimates but issued fourth quarter financial guidance above expectations.

The tech hardware giant pointed to surging demand for its AI servers and stronger performance in its infrastructure business.

From Reuters:

The company, which raised its annual revenue and profit expectations, offers AI-optimized servers equipped with ‌Nvidia's (NVDA) powerful chips.

Its strong forecasts could ease investor concerns about the margin hit due to intense competition in the AI server market from rivals such as Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and the high costs of building the products.

Dell now expects $25 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue from AI server ⁠shipments, up from its prior ‌view of $20 billion. The company had previously raised the forecast in August.

Having secured deals with the U.S. Department of Energy and Abu ‍Dhabi's AI firm G42, the company also counts Elon Musk's AI startup xAI (XAAI.PVT) and CoreWeave (CRWV) among its customers.

Dell expects fourth-quarter revenue between $31.0 billion and $32 billion, above analysts' ​average estimate of $27.59 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Adjusted profit forecast of ‌$3.50 per share was also above estimates of $3.21.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Gold (GC=F) advanced, aided by dollar weakness and the growing chance of an interest-rate cut in the US before year-end.

Bullion was near $4,165 an ounce in Asian trading, having ended Tuesday little changed, while the US currency dropped for a second session, making the precious metal cheaper for many buyers.

Delayed economic data strengthened bets the Federal Reserve will lower rates next month. A modest rise in September retail sales showed that several months of robust spending have lost steam, while consumer confidence fell the most since April.

Reinforcing prospects for lower rates, the likely frontrunner to be the next Fed chair – White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett – is seen as someone who shares President Donald Trump’s support for cutting borrowing cost. Gold typically benefits when rates are low, as it doesn’t pay interest. Swaps traders are now seeing a more-than-80% chance of a quarter-point cut in December.

Read more here.