This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) just flipped its Fed call again, and the timing could be the story. After briefly arguing that policymakers might wait until January, the bank now expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates next month a shift driven by a burst of dovish commentary from senior officials, most notably New York Fed President John Williams. The bank had turned cautious after the delayed September jobs report, but the tone from Washington has possibly pushed them back toward an earlier move.

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With Chair Jerome Powell preparing to convene the December 910 FOMC meeting, JPMorgan's team, led by Michael Feroli, is positioning for two quarter-point reductions: one in December and another in January. Feroli told clients the gathering could still be a close call, but the recent wave of Fedspeak seems to tilt the odds toward action in two weeks from today. The bank's refreshed stance could line up with the way markets have quickly rebuilt expectations around earlier easing.

Swap traders are already moving first. Pricing now reflects roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut next week a dramatic jump from less than 30% just a week earlier, before Williams' latest remarks hit the tape. The sequence could matter: markets had digested the September labor data, shifted toward patience, and then spun back as officials leaned more dovish. For investors trying to read the runway into year-end, the debate may now center on timing rather than direction, as momentum builds around the possibility that the Fed's easing cycle could start sooner than assumed.