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The third quarter was particularly tough for a handful of chains that define the fast-casual category — namely Chipotle, CAVA, and Sweetgreen, which all fell below expectations. Simultaneously, Panera, a fast-casual pioneer, just announced a comprehensive turnaround plan after experiencing stagnant sales and growth throughout the past several years. 

This trend comes just a year after the category outpaced its casual and quick-service peers, indicating it was insulated in a swiftly softening consumer environment. In late 2024, fast casual concepts were winning the value perception battle. As we knock on the door of 2026, however, that no longer seems to be the case, and the outlook doesn’t look much rosier in the coming months.

According to Technomic’s 2026 U.S. Foodservice Trend Predictions, the category’s momentum is expected to continue to slow as it hits maturity. The fast-casual segment has doubled in size throughout the past decade, jumping from $37.2 billion in total annual sales in 2015 with a forecast of finishing 2025 with $84.1 billion. Total fast-casual locations have grown from 27,925 in 2015 to an expected 44,098 in 2025.

Maintaining this pace is becoming increasingly difficult, Technomic noted, and it’s perhaps showing in traffic metrics.

Traffic at fast-casual chains slowed from an increase of about 3.3% in December 2024 to 1.7% in October 2025. By comparison, quick-service traffic has improved from -3.6% in December 2024 to 0.7% in October 2025, suggesting market share movement between the two categories.

Technomic’s report shows that fast-casual’s performance is losing its edge not just over quick-service, but also casual dining. From 2021 to 2025 year-to-date, the percentage of diners who reported good/excellent satisfaction with their fast-casual meal was unchanged at 54%. Meanwhile, quick-service satisfaction jumped from 47% in 2021 to 50% in 2025, and casual dining increased from 52% to 54%. 

Additionally, value scores for quick service jumped by 4% from 2021 to 2025, while casual dining increased by 2% and fast casual increased by 1%. 

Technomic’s data shows that 8.1% of recent quick-service occasions were taken from fast-casual restaurants, compared to 6.9% in the year prior. 

The 2026 Restaurant Outlook report from Consumer Edge seems to back up Technomic’s current pulse and predictions about the category. It shows that fast casual continued to lose share of wallet in the third quarter, with underperformance from key brands like Chipotle, Panera, and Five Guys overshadowing more robust growth from Shake Shack and CAVA. 

In that quarter, casual dining maintained momentum, benefitting from a “widening perceived value gap versus fast food/fast casual and from improvements in service quality and in-store experience,” the report noted.

Conversely, several fast-casual brands, "suffered bruising earnings reactions after customers began to push back against steady inflation in ‘slop bowl’ pricing, leading to lower traffic," it said.

These brands may continue to face headwinds if they don’t adjust pricing or quality concerns, according to Consumer Edge. Many seem to be trying, at least. In October, Chipotle executives said the company doesn’t plan on passing tariff-related inflation onto consumers despite persistent pressures. Chief executive officer Scott Boatwright also said the company is focusing more on communicating its strong value proposition, adding that Chipotle is priced 20% to 30% lower than its peers.

“This gap has widened over the last few years as our pricing has consistently trailed the broader restaurant industry,” he said during the company’s third quarter earnings call. “In fact, our pricing has tracked more closely with food at home and food away from home. Bottom line, our value proposition has never been stronger.”

CAVA also plans to be conservative with pricing in 2026. During his company’s early November earnings call, CEO Brett Schulman said the chain has raised menu prices by about 17% since 2019, versus industry peers, which have taken about 34%. 

“It’s incumbent on us to double down on our experience and value proposition and make sure we’re communicating that effectively,” he said. “We’re not oblivious to the commentary about the $20 lunch. You can get a chicken filet with all the toppings included … (for) sub $13, not a $20 lunch, and that’s an opportunity for us to continue to communicate.” 

Meanwhile, Sweetgreen executives conceded that they “need to do a better job creating entry prices,” and the chain is experimenting with different pricing tiers “in the coming months.” 

As for Panera, the company’s new strategic plan includes increased investments in the menu, ensuring higher quality ingredients and abundance. 

“We’re investing back into the food,” CEO Paul Carbone said during a recent interview, adding, “we’ve spent the past six months talking to thousands of customers, franchisees, and long-tenured employees to get a sense of the essence of Panera when it was at its apex.” 

Panera’s work to get back to its apex mirrors its fast-casual peers’ work to do the same. Time will tell if the category can get back to market share gains versus losses. 

In the meantime, fast-casual chains would be wise to follow Consumer Edge’s prediction: “The 2026 diner isn’t cutting back — they’re cutting through the noise to find value that feels worth it.”

Contact Alicia Kelso at Alicia.Kelso@informa.com

Follow her on TikTok: @aliciakelso