Rubrik’s latest valuation update edges its fair value estimate down slightly to about $114.05 per share, as analysts weave together strong recent execution with a more measured outlook for future growth. Supported by a small uptick in the discount rate and a modest easing in long term revenue growth assumptions, this recalibration reflects both optimism about durable demand and caution regarding the pace at which the story can continue to develop. Stay tuned to discover how you can track these shifting expectations and stay informed on the evolving Rubrik narrative.

Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Rubrik.

???? Bullish Takeaways

CIBC reaffirmed its positive thesis after Q2 results, raising its price target to $130 from $125 and highlighting projected revenue growth of 34% for FY26 and 23% for FY27 as support for further upside relative to current levels.

FBN Securities increased its target to $115 from $100, citing strong execution, with Q2 revenue up 51% year over year and about 10% above consensus, subscription ARR growth of 36% year over year, and a marked improvement in NG subscription margin to 9.4%.

Barclays lifted its target to $120 from $115 and kept an Overweight rating, pointing to better net new annual recurring revenue even as Rubrik adjusted its sales incentives, reinforcing confidence in the durability of growth momentum.

Mizuho moved to an Outperform rating from Neutral with a $97 target, adding to a cluster of bullish calls that collectively frame Rubrik as executing well on growth and margins despite a more conservative near term outlook.

???? Bearish Takeaways

While recent Q2 results and ARR trends prompted higher targets from CIBC, FBN Securities, and Barclays, CIBC explicitly noted a conservative Q3 outlook, which, together with Rubrik’s strong share performance, feeds ongoing concerns that a meaningful portion of long term upside may already be reflected in the valuation.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

Rubrik launched Rubrik Agent Cloud, a new platform to monitor, govern, and remediate enterprise AI agents across major clouds and tools, including OpenAI, Microsoft Copilot Studio, and Amazon Bedrock, underscoring its push into AI security and governance.

The company announced Rubrik Agent Cloud for Amazon Bedrock AgentCore and achieved the AWS Resilience Software Competency in Recovery, expanding multi cloud monitoring, governance, and rollback capabilities for AI agents.

Rubrik expanded Rubrik Agent Cloud to integrate with Microsoft Copilot Studio, allowing enterprises to discover, control, and roll back Copilot based AI agents across Microsoft 365, strengthening its positioning in the Microsoft ecosystem.

Rubrik introduced new cyber resilience offerings, including Rubrik Intelligent Business Recovery for Microsoft 365 and DevOps Protection for Azure DevOps and GitHub, while updating fiscal 2026 guidance to full year revenue of $1,227M to $1,237M and projecting Q3 revenue of $319M to $321M.

The fair value estimate has edged down slightly from approximately $115.20 to about $114.05 per share, reflecting modestly more conservative assumptions.

The discount rate has risen slightly from around 8.39% to roughly 8.67%, modestly increasing the required return applied to Rubrik's future cash flows.

Revenue growth has eased marginally from roughly 24.87% to about 24.17%, indicating a slightly slower long term growth outlook.

The net profit margin has improved slightly from about 12.41% to approximately 12.70%, suggesting a bit more operating leverage and profitability over time.

The future P/E has ticked down marginally from roughly 133.44x to around 132.88x, implying a very small reduction in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Narratives are investor written stories that connect the dots between a company’s business, its forecasts, and its fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to explain why revenue, earnings, and margins might evolve a certain way, then compare that fair value with today’s share price to decide when to buy or sell. As news, guidance, or earnings change, these Narratives update dynamically so your view of the story stays current and actionable.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Rubrik to stay on top of:

How Rubrik’s cyber resilience and AI driven data security strategy could expand its TAM and support high 20s revenue growth.

Whether improving margins and operating leverage can justify a future PE above 130x and support a fair value near $114.

The key risks, from competitive pressure to execution in AI and cloud, that could challenge the bullish repricing case.

Read the full Rubrik Narrative on Simply Wall St and use it as a framework to test your own assumptions and timing around the stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include RBRK.

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