Fox Factory Holding’s latest guidance reset has left its fair value estimate largely steady at about $22.86 per share, even as analysts recalibrate the narrative around the stock. A modest drop in the discount rate to roughly 11.16% captures slightly lower perceived risk, while long term revenue growth assumptions sit near 3.50% with little change. Stay tuned to see how you can track these evolving targets and keep ahead of the next shift in the story.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for Fox Factory Holding shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Fox Factory Holding.

???? Bullish Takeaways

Both Roth Capital and B. Riley maintain Neutral stances with lower but still positive absolute price targets of $21 and $20, respectively, implying analysts see downside risks largely reflected in Fox Factory Holding’s compressed valuation.

Roth Capital highlights ongoing execution in the Powered Vehicles Group, where new motorcycle suspension offerings continue to support revenue, and in the Aftermarket Accessories Group, which is benefiting from elevated aftermarket demand and helping underpin the long term growth case.

???? Bearish Takeaways

Roth Capital’s Scott Stember cut his target to $21 from $30 after Fox Factory reported a weaker than expected Q3 EPS and reduced its FY25 guidance, signalling increased concern that near term earnings power may fall short of prior expectations.

Roth also points to softness in the Specialty Sports Group, with Bike and Marucci orders slowing as retailers manage inventory more carefully, raising doubts about the durability of growth across all segments.

B. Riley lowered its price target to $20 from $32 while keeping a Neutral rating, underscoring a more cautious stance on upside potential and suggesting that, despite some execution strengths, risk around guidance and end market demand continues to cap valuation re rating prospects.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

Fox Factory Holding lowered its full year 2025 sales outlook to a range of $1.445B to $1.475B, trimming the prior $1.45B to $1.51B forecast and signaling a more cautious view on demand across key end markets.

The company revised its fourth quarter 2025 net sales guidance to $340M to $370M, steering investors to the bottom half of the earlier implied range as softer market conditions weigh on near term expectations.

Fox introduced Live Valve as an aftermarket semi active suspension upgrade for trucks and Jeeps, a sensor rich system that continuously adjusts damping based on terrain and driver inputs, with broader availability expected from early 2026.

The Fair Value Estimate is essentially unchanged at approximately $22.86 per share, suggesting limited impact from the latest guidance reset on intrinsic value modeling.

The Discount Rate decreased modestly from about 11.85% to 11.16%, reflecting a slightly lower perceived risk profile or adjusted cost of capital assumptions.

Revenue Growth is effectively flat at around 3.50%, signaling no material change in long term top line growth expectations.

Net Profit Margin remains stable at roughly 4.67%, indicating unchanged assumptions around profitability and operating leverage over the forecast horizon.

The Future P/E edged down slightly from about 17.77x to 17.44x, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Narratives are investor written stories that connect what a company does to clear financial expectations, like future revenue, earnings, and margins, and then to a fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives as an easy way to link the story to the numbers, compare Fair Value to the current price, and decide when to buy or sell. As news, guidance, or earnings change, the Narrative updates dynamically so your view on a stock always reflects the latest information.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Fox Factory Holding to stay on top of the evolving story behind the numbers in this original narrative:

Track how premium product innovation, new categories, and OEM partnerships could support revenue growth, margin expansion, and long term pricing power.

Monitor whether structural cost savings and supply chain changes offset tariff headwinds and rising operating costs, protecting future earnings and free cash flow.

See in real time how analyst assumptions on 6.1% annual revenue growth and improved profit margins translate into a changing Fair Value versus the current share price.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FOXF.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com