US stocks stalled on Monday, as Wall Street headed into a pivotal week dominated by the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2025.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped below the flat line. The laggard start to the trading week comes on the heels of closing gains for stocks Friday.

Markets are on the lookout for risks to almost-total confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates at its two-day policy meeting, which starts on Tuesday. After a recent surge in optimism, traders now see an 88% probability of a cut in Wednesday's decision, compared with 67% odds a month ago, per CME FedWatch.

A tame reading on September PCE consumer inflation kept that conviction alive on Friday, buoying appetite for risk and helping spur back-to-back weekly gains for the major gauges.

The consensus has emerged despite a split among policymakers, in part over whether to focus on the labor market or inflation — which some at the Fed worry could still be too high. But backing from influential officials for the third cut of this year has cemented bets, though the prospects for 2026 are seen as less certain.

Given that, this week's raft of economic data will be keenly eyed, with the labor market in the spotlight after a mixed bag of readings last week. The postponed October report on JOLTS job openings finally arrives on Tuesday to shed light on hiring activity, layoffs, and the pace at which workers are quitting.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) stock surged after Paramount (PSKY) launched a $108 billion hostile bid for the media giant. The last-minute move shakes up plans for Netflix (NFLX) to acquire the company.

On the earnings side, Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) quarterly results will be in focus on Wednesday, while Broadcom (AVGO) and Costco (COST) headline the proceedings on Thursday.

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell nearly 7% Monday as the Nvidia-backed (NVDA) AI cloud provider said it plans to issue $2 billion worth of senior convertible notes set to mature in 2031, raising the risk that the stock's value could be diluted.

Investors buy senior convertible notes, a type of debt, from a company that they have the option to convert into shares if the stock rises above a certain value. When a company issues new shares —or increases the number of outstanding shares — it can reduce the value of preexisting ones, \\"diluting\\" them.

CoreWeave said in its announcement that it will use the proceeds of its debt offering in part to buy financial products called capped call options from banks, allowing the company to receive a payout when its stock rises in order to offset the dilution.

CoreWeave is one of the so-called \\"neoclouds\\" — new, AI-focused cloud firms — seeded by Nvidia that rival the AI chip giant's other Big Tech firms.

CoreWeave's roughly $14 billion in short- and long-term debt, partly backed by its depreciating store of Nvidia's AI chips, has raised concerns for investors worried over the rising role of debt in the AI data center buildout, as the return on investments in AI infrastructure are hotly debated on Wall Street.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) stock climbed more than 7% in early trading Monday as Paramount (PSKY) launched a hostile bid to buy the media giant.

Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports:

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) announced on Monday a bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in an all-cash deal worth $30 per share, or roughly $108.4 billion, as the company moves to top Netflix's (NFLX) deal struck last week to acquire the storied studio.

Paramount's bid on Monday would see the company acquire all of Warner Bros.' assets. On Friday, Netflix agreed to acquire Warner Bros.' TV, film, studios, and streaming division for $72 billion — roughly $27.75 per share — in a cash-and-stock deal that would see Warner Bros. shareholders receive $23.35 per share, along with $4.50 in Netflix common stock.

The deal between Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix, agreed to by the boards of both companies, is tentative and has yet to receive approval under the federal government's antitrust review process.

Read the full story here.

Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) stock rocketed 72% higher just after the open following the biotech company's positive obesity pill results from a mid-stage study. The stock rose as much as 40% in premarket trading.

The company announced that its oral GLP-1 pill, aleniglipron, reduced weight loss by 11.3% in patients in a 36-week Phase 2b study. Structure also said that 10.4% of patients discontinued treatment after adverse events at the 120mg dose level, while no patients discontinued treatment at a lower 2.5 mg dose.

The results pave the way for Structure to advance its GLP-1 pill to late-stage trials in mid-2026.

\\"The topline results presented today show that aleniglipron is differentiated and delivered clinically meaningful, competitive and dose-dependent weight loss with a safety profile appropriate for chronic use in a disease that impacts millions of people,” the company's CEO, Raymond Stevens, said in a statement. “For the higher doses, the observed weight loss data at 36 weeks with no weight loss plateau is potentially best-in-class for oral small molecule GLP1s.\\"

Pharma companies have been racing to develop a pill version of the injectable GLP-1 drugs, as pills are cheaper to produce and are likely preferred by patients. Novo Nordisk (NVO), a leader in the space, has already applied for FDA approval of its pill, while Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to apply for FDA approval by the end of this year.

US stocks steadied at the market open on Monday following back-to-back weekly gains for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) as investors looked ahead to the Fed's policy meeting this week.

The S&P 500 and the Dow were roughly flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.3%.

Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports:

Netflix’s (NFLX) $72 billion agreement to acquire Warner Bros.’ (WBD) studio and streaming assets has set off a high-stakes debate about whether regulators will allow the world’s largest streamer to get even bigger.

The deal, which folds Warner Bros.’ film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max into Netflix’s global machine, immediately resets the competitive landscape. And it caught even seasoned Wall Street analysts off guard.

Citi analyst Jason Bazinet admitted this scenario barely made his list of possibilities.

“It was my lowest-probability outcome,\\" he told Yahoo Finance on Friday. \\"Actually, we only had a 5% likelihood that this transaction would be consummated.\\"

... That unexpected outcome is now colliding with the political environment.

According to data from JustWatch, a platform that measures streaming engagement across US services, a combined Netflix–WBD would control roughly a third of US streaming activity. That’s a level of concentration that has already drawn fierce criticism.

President Trump said Sunday the deal \\"could be a problem\\", sending bets on Netflix sharply lower.

Read more here.

IBM (IBM) announced it has officially entered an agreement to buy data streaming platform Confluent (CFLT) for $11 billion.

IBM will pay $31 per share in cash for the company as it seeks to rekindle momentum in its cloud software business and take a piece of the AI applications market. Confluent stock traded above $23 per share as of Friday's close.

Confluent stock soared nearly 30% following the announcement, while IBM shares declined about 1%.

\\"IBM and Confluent together will enable enterprises to deploy generative and agentic AI better and faster by providing trusted communication and data flow between environments, applications and APIs,\\" IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said. \\"With the acquisition of Confluent, IBM will provide the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI.\\"

Crude oil slipped in early morning trading on Monday as traders anticipated a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week and as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled.

West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) fell 1.2% to trade below $60 per barrel while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also dropped 1.2% to $62.

Oil prices dropped after Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that negotiators remain divided on the Donbas territory in peace talks brokered by the US.

The steady selling also comes as traders price in 89.6% odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting this week, according to CME Group's FedWatch.

Economic data: New York Fed 1-yr inflation expectations (November)

Earnings: Toll Brothers (TOL), The Children's Place (PLCE)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:

How the Fed follows this week's 'hawkish cut' is far from certain

Trump: Netflix-Warner deal may pose antitrust 'problem'

Crucial Fed decision looms with eyes on 'Santa Claus' rally

China's trade surplus tops $1 trillion for the first time

IBM said to close in on $11 billion deal for Confluent; stock surges

Berkshire Hathaway stock picker Todd Combs to leave for JPMorgan

Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus is biggest US stock bull for third year

Stock market's 2025 laggards see revival in year's final stretch

Carvana (CVNA) stock rose 8% before the bell on Monday following news on Friday that it will join the S&P 500 as part of the index’s quarterly rebalancing. CRH (CRH) also rose 7% during premarket trading.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) stock dropped 6% in premarket trading on Monday. Stephens analyst Melissa Roberts expected Marvell to join S&P 500 index (^GSPC); however, it was not included.

Rivian (RIVN) stock fell 3% during premarket trading. The fall follows news that the company will be recalling 35,000 vehicles due to a damaged seat belt pretensioner cable.

Investment manager Todd Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) as Warren Buffett prepares his own departure at the end of the year.

Combs — seen as an investment protege of Buffett's, per the FT — will take up a role at JPMorgan Chase (JPM), where he is already a board member. He is also stepping away as CEO of Geico, Berkshire said in a statement on Monday.

\\"[Combs] has resigned to accept an interesting and important job at JPMorgan,\\" Buffett said in the statement. \\"Todd made many great hires at GEICO and broadened its horizons. JPMorgan, as usually is the case, has made a good decision.\\"

Berkshire is reshuffling its leadership ranks as it adjusts to losing Combs. Geico COO Nancy Pierce will take over the helm at Geico, the insurance giant that is a key part of the Buffett-built conglomerate.

The news comes just weeks after Buffett said he was entering a \\"quiet period\\" before handing over the CEO position to Greg Abel in 2026.

Bloomberg reports:

Yardeni Research now recommends effectively going underweight the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks versus the rest of the S&P 500 (^GSPC), expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.

“We see more competitors coming for the juicy profit margins of the Magnificent 7,” and expect that the productivity and profit margins of the rest of the S&P 500 will be boosted by tech, said Wall Street research veteran Ed Yardeni.

He added that in effect, “every company is evolving into a technology company.”

The Magnificent 7 stocks were mixed in premarket trading on Monday, with Tesla Inc. (TSLA), Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) underperforming peers.

The strategist said that it no longer makes sense to continue recommending overweighting the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors in an S&P 500 portfolio, after having kept that weighting since 2010, according to the research note Sunday. The firm recommends market-weighting of the two sectors by adding to overweights in financials and industrials, and overweighting health care.

The Magnificent 7 merits special caution as “they’re competing more aggressively against each other and they’ve got more competition coming out of nowhere” Yardeni said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday. In particular, he cited the recent doubts about OpenAI’s dominance as well as the emergence of China’s DeepSeek earlier this year.

Read more here.

China’s exports returned to growth in November after an unexpected contraction in October, pushing its trade surplus in dollar terms for 2025 past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to data released Monday.

The Associated Press reports:

Exports climbed 5.9% from a year earlier in November, while imports rose just under 2%. The customs data released on Monday also showed that shipments to the US dropped nearly 29% year-on-year.

... The nearly $1.08 trillion trade surplus for the first 11 months of this year is a record high, surpassing the $992 billion surplus for all of 2024, based on official data compiled by FactSet.

While exports from China to the U.S. have fallen for most of the year, shipments have surged to other destinations, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the European Union.

A year-long trade truce between China and the U.S. was reached at a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea. The U.S. has lowered its tariffs on China, and China has promised to halt its export controls related to rare earths.

“It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” ING Bank chief economist for Greater China Lynn Song wrote in a report.

Read more here.

Shares of Confluent (CFLT) surged around 30% in premarket trading after a report that IBM (IBM) is in advanced talks to buy the data infrastructure company.

The deal could be announced as soon as Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported, but noted that the discussions could still collapse.

Customers use Confluent's platform to process huge streams of real-time data, as used in AI models. If completed, the acquisition would be one of IBM's biggest deals in recent times, and would play into its push into AI. Shares of IBM were little changed in early Monday morning trading.

Reuters reports:

Confluent holds a market capitalization of about $8.09 billion, as per LSEG-compiled data, while New York-based IBM is valued at roughly $287.84 ​billion.

Investors grew cautious after IBM reported slower growth in its core cloud ‌software business in October, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain momentum. Analysts said IBM will need stronger software performance to keep overall growth on track.

IBM's acquisition strategy remains a key focus for meeting investors' expectations. Last year, the company bought HashiCorp in a $6.4 billion deal, expanding its cloud-based ⁠offerings to capture rising demand fueled by ​artificial intelligence.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

The bond market’s reaction to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts has been highly unusual. By some measures, a disconnect like this, with Treasury yields climbing as the central bank lowers rates, hasn’t been seen since the 1990s.

What the divergence indicates is a matter of heated debate. Opinions are all over the place, from the bullish (a sign of confidence that recession will be averted) to the more neutral (a return to pre-2008 market norms) to the favorite culprit of the so-called bond vigilantes (investors are losing confidence the US will ever rein in the constantly swelling national debt).

But one thing is clear: the bond market isn’t buying President Donald Trump’s idea that faster rate cuts will send bond yields sliding down and, in turn, slash the rates on mortgages, credit cards and other types of loans.

With Trump soon able to replace Chair Jerome Powell with his own nominee, on top of everything else is the risk of the Fed squandering its credibility by caving to political pressure to ease policy more aggressively — which could backfire by fanning already elevated inflation and pushing yields higher.

... The Fed started pulling its benchmark rate down from a more than two-decade high in September 2024 and has since cut it by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Traders see another quarter-point cut after the next meeting on Wednesday as virtually assured and are pricing in two more such moves next year, which would bring its rate to around 3%.

Yet, key Treasury yields — which serve as the main baseline for the borrowing costs paid by American consumers and corporations — haven’t come down at all. Ten-year yields (^TNX) have risen nearly half a percentage point to 4.1% since the Fed started easing policy and 30-year yields are up over 0.8 percentage point.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Silver (SI=F) wavered, after climbing more than 2% in the previous session, as inflows to exchange-traded funds backed by the metal had their strongest week since July. Gold edged up.

The white metal fell toward $58 an ounce on Monday, having earlier jumped to within a dollar of a record. Total holdings of silver-backed ETFs rose by nearly 590 tons last week, a strong bet by investors that the metal’s rally still has further to run despite concerns it’s overheated.

Silver’s recent surge – it peaked at $59.3336 on Friday – has been supported by increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week, a tailwind for non-yielding precious metals. The market is also still dealing with the aftershocks of a historic short squeeze in London.

Read more here.