Corrections & Clarifications: The December CPI report will be released Jan. 13.

The December consumer price index report will offer a final read on a year in which inflation gradually eased on paper, even as many Americans continued to feel squeezed by high prices.

Gasoline prices fell over the course of 2025, but electricity costs climbed. Asking rent prices decelerated, but most households still felt it was difficult to cover the cost of groceries.

Economists expect the Jan. 13 report to reveal prices rose about 2.8% in the twelve months ending in December. While inflation remained well below the highs reached in 2022 and 2023, it also proved more stubborn than many forecasters expected in 2025, as price growth remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target throughout the year.

“It’s not where the Fed wants it, but it’s not the end of the world either,” AlphaCore Wealth Advisory Chief Investment Strategist David Stubbs said.

Consumers believe prices will continue to rise in 2026, according to the New York Fed’s December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations. Respondents expected near-term inflation to rise to 3.4%, and to have more trouble paying down debt in the next three months.

Some economists have said those expectations are likely shaped by affordability pressures and a K-shaped economy, in which higher-income households’ assets grow, and they continue to spend, while lower-income households struggle as wage growth lags behind productivity gains.

For some, tax refunds could provide a cash boost in 2026, as a higher standard deduction and expanded credits, combined with unchanged withholdings, are expected to produce larger refunds this year.

More: Will inflation rise again? New survey reveals consumers' expectations.

The December CPI report is expected to offer a clearer picture of inflation than the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ previous release, after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history disrupted data collection late last year.

“Most, although not all, of these distortions should be unwound in the December report,” Wells Fargo economists said in a Jan. 8 report.

They expect a bigger rebound in goods prices than in services after holiday-discounting, but they also anticipate a bounce-back in services price growth, particularly in seasonally sensitive areas like lodging away from home and airfares.

Trade uncertainty impacted inflation throughout last year, as consumers rushed out to buy things like cars and electronics before tariffs took effect, according to Mike Skordeles, head of U.S. economics at Truist. He said this consumer behavior pushed up prices when supply was tight.

“Three key areas to watch are housing, wages, and energy prices,” Bankrate Financial Analyst Stephen Kates said in a note to USA TODAY. “These categories are major components of the CPI and also create ripple effects across prices of other goods and services.”

Between housing inflation cooling across the country, wage growth lagging behind productivity gains, and low gas prices, “these three factors point to continued cooling in inflation through 2026,” Kates added.

Fedral Reserve policymakers will analyze the December CPI report’s release ahead of their next meeting at the end of January.

The Labor Department's December jobs report, which was released Jan. 9 and showed the unemployment rate falling from November to December, damped the odds of an additional cut this month, according to Skordeles.

Forecasters do not expect another rate cut after three consecutive reductions late last year. Instead, they anticipate members of the rate-setting committee will want to see how those prior moves will impact the economy.

Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Final 2025 inflation report will bring clarity after disrupted data