The Federal Reserve's first meeting of 2026 is scheduled to begin on Tuesday morning as officials aim to balance their dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, all while concerns about Fed independence swirl.

Markets expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, with probabilities from the CME Group showing a 97% chance the Fed holds rates steady in a range of 3.5%-3.75%.

Fed officials have signaled they will go meeting by meeting to determine the policy path after the Fed cut interest rates three times in the second half of 2025. Divisions over the path for inflation and the labor market have dominated recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings, with officials in December voting against the Fed's 0.25% rate cut in both directions.

At the December meeting, officials projected just one interest rate cut in 2026.

Meanwhile, questions over Fed independence still loom over January's meeting.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case over President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook from her role earlier this month, and Wednesday's announcement will mark the first since the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell was disclosed. Trump is also expected to name his pick for Powell's successor to lead the central bank in the coming days.

Follow along for the latest updates.

The first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026 is expected to see the central bank make no change to its benchmark interest rate target, which current stands in a range of 3.5%-3.75%.

“I don’t think there will be a whole lot of activity other than holding rates. The Fed is at a point where they can be patient, and we don’t need to do anything. Short, sweet,” said Wilmer Stith, senior bond portfolio manager for Wilmington Trust.

“I think it’ll be see what data says, decide, and wait for more data and decide, gently gliding down their landing.”

Read Jennifer Schonberger's full story here.