3 questions about Trump's nominee to lead the Fed

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The end of the Jerome Powell era is in sight. And the likely next Fed chair is already in view.

President Trump announced on Friday that he will name former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as the next leader of the central bank. If he makes it through Senate confirmation, Warsh would take over when Powell's leadership term ends in May.

Warsh would step into the role while the independence of the Fed is under threat and policy questions linger over what to do with stubborn inflation and an uncertain job market.

Trump's final decision is seen as a conventional choice, and, at least on prediction markets recently, as the top contender.

A Fed governor appointed by former Republican President George W. Bush, serving from 2006 to 2011, Warsh's tenure gave him the reputation as an inflation hawk.

But recently he's advocated for interest rate cuts, aligning his public position with Trump's outspoken desire for lower rates.

The big question we've all had has now been answered. But a few new questions have popped up.

In the president's own words, Warsh is "central casting," (a classic Trump-ism) and "he will never let you down."

In other words, he looks like a central banker. The second part of that Trump quote may, however, cause some concern over Fed independence, though Warsh was seen as a far more independent choice than the other Kevin up for consideration, Hassett.

Warsh has publicly expressed economic policy views that align with the White House. He's been critical of the Fed in recent months and has even singled out Chair Powell for making "unwise choices," including misinterpreting the inflation that stuck around after the pandemic.

On tariffs, Warsh also holds a view that many on the Fed already have and that the White House favors: that the levies should be seen as one-off price changes — a view that current Chair Jerome Powell echoed in Wednesday's press conference.

Complicating Warsh's recent commentary is that when he served on the Fed, he was known as an inflation hawk. So even though he is a critic of current Fed policy, his former stances don't exactly mesh with the White House's positions.

As RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance, "I think the first question to ask is, 'Is Kevin Warsh a man for all seasons or a chameleon?'"

Stocks fell on Friday after the announcement. Meanwhile, the dollar rose as long-term bond yields ticked higher. And the roaring metals rally came to a screeching halt.

Reaction from analysts was mixed, noting Warsh's recent dovish turn, but also acknowledging that, given his hawkish past, he might be less inclined to cater to Trump's wishes.

As Capital Economics' Stephen Brown wrote in a note on Friday, Warsh's positions do "present the risk of some upward pressure on long-term bond yields."

While noting that Warsh is a relatively safe choice, Brown pointed to his notable views, including that AI developments and the Trump administration’s regulatory push will keep inflation down and that the Fed should operate with a much smaller balance sheet.

Others, like Wells Fargo economists, highlighted Warsh's career pedigree. With experience on Wall Street and in the Fed, there is some comfort in Trump's choice.

What about the ongoing controversy over Fed independence?

Just because Trump nominated Warsh to be the next Fed chair doesn't mean Wall Street will expect him to move in lockstep with the president.

But it would be naive to dismiss the broader context.

The president has made clear he wants more say over monetary policy. And the nomination comes while Fed governor Lisa Cook risks losing her job and Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces criminal charges.

Both members of the Fed insist that the threats against them are politically motivated to advance Trump's interests.

At least one Republican senator has already said they will not support Warsh's confirmation before Powell's legal matter is resolved.

So it’s right to question why Trump chose Warsh.

Lawmakers will likely ask Warsh if he will uphold the Fed's independence, and if he, like Powell, is willing to risk his personal freedom to fulfill his duties.

If he wants the job, he’ll have to say yes. And if he wants to be seen as a truly independent central bank chair, he might have to do it too.

Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.

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