Trump picking Kevin Warsh as Fed chair wasn’t enough to soothe shaky markets
The biggest news in markets on Friday was President Trump picking Kevin Warsh as his nominee to chair the Federal Reserve. But though that captured headlines, stocks seemed to shrug off the news.
Equity futures traded lower early in the morning session. Trump made his announcement before the market open, which gave futures a brief bump, but ultimately stocks opened lower and continued trading lower throughout the day.
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“The immediate market reaction in U.S. equities was muted early this morning. The premarket selloff was worse prior to the Warsh announcement; futures remained negative but moved higher off of the lows once the announcement went public,” Dominic Pappalardo, chief multiasset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, told MarketWatch.
By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA finished 0.4% lower, while the S&P 500 SPX shed 0.4% and Nasdaq Composite COMP fell 0.9%.
Investors have had a slew of earnings calls to dig into this week, including those from tech giants Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Meta Platforms META and Tesla TSLA. Some of these earnings calls prompted individual stocks to push higher. But overall, investors seemed to be gripped by a risk-off sentiment, and showed that they wanted to see returns from companies after years of capital spending on artificial intelligence.
That resulted in a selloff in the tech sector, with the S&P 500 information-technology sector XX:SP500.45 falling 1.9% on Thursday and another 1.3% on Friday.
But tech wasn’t the only sector facing heat. Stocks in the materials sector XX:SP500.15 also fell on Friday after gold GC00, silver SI00 and copper HG00 hit the brakes on their record rally.
Read: Silver suffers biggest drop in 46 years, with ‘every man and his dog rushing for the exit’
This move, however, seemed much more tied to Trump’s Fed pick.
“The dramatic selloffs in gold and silver are likely a result of concerns around a lack of Fed independence easing. The nomination of Warsh, a highly qualified and credible veteran, is going a long way to reduce fears of White House intervention with future Fed policy,” Pappalardo said.
He noted that investors have viewed gold and silver as a substitute for U.S. dollar exposure; as global investors have stepped away from the dollar due to political risk — such as Trump’s attempts to encroach on Fed independence and start trade wars with allies — they have been investing more in gold and silver. After Trump picked Warsh, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY rebounded on the belief that Warsh would lead the Fed with a level-headed approach.
“Fears of reduced Fed independence have contributed to the decline in the U.S. dollar’s value and [the] massive rally in gold and silver seen over the last year. Today is a step towards the reversing those trends,” Pappalardo said.
Even with such fears easing, the sharp retreat in metals prices may have created some pain in the markets. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, said that “confidence” in Trump’s Fed pick led to profit-taking, but added that margin calls were “part of the equation” in today’s plunge in precious-metals prices.
However, the way different asset classes moved on Friday wasn’t entirely in sync with how markets expect Warsh to act as Fed chair.
“Some may try to pin the market pullback on Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair, which is the big news of the day, but underlying market action is not consistent with this thesis,” Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, told MarketWatch. “Today’s pullback is more likely simply a deflating of some of the more crowded trades.”
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