Macy's (M) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Know
President Trump told reporters that India may be hit with a tariff rate of 20% to 25% and cautioned that the final levy still hadn't been decided. This news comes days before Trump's Aug. 1 deadline, when nations who have not yet reached a deal will face higher tariffs.
“I think so,” Trump told reporters when asked if that was a possible tariff rate for New Delhi.
“India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country.”
The US and China concluded their latest round of tariff and trade talks in Sweden on Tuesday, with both sides touting progress but without an immediate announcement of a further tariff delay. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump would make the final call on extending the trade truce between the world's two largest economies.
This week's talks were the third round for the countries, which have slowly deescalated trade tensions since Trump imposed gargantuan tariffs in April, and China reciprocated. The countries suspended those tariffs for 90 days — a suspension that is set to end on Aug. 12. Bessent said another 90-day extension is possible.
Meanwhile, the US and EU are racing to lock in the final details of their major new trade deal before President Trump's self-imposed Friday deadline to reach agreements with partners other than China.
Critics say it's a rushed fix, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calling the outcome unsatisfying and France’s Bayrou dubbing the EU’s "submission" a "dark day." The agreement includes a baseline tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods imported into the US. Trump called the deal “the biggest of them all."
Trump also confirmed on Monday that 15% represents the new tariff "floor" for countries, whose rates he has been dictating to leaders in the absence of trade deals.
“For the world, I would say it’ll be somewhere in the 15% to 20% range,” Trump said in Scotland as he met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Last week, Trump said those letters dictating tariff rates for over 200 countries would go out soon while his administration works to clinch deals with larger trade partners. Still in focus are potential deals with Canada, Mexico, and India, among others.
Trump also touted a deal with Japan that included a $550 billion investment in the US and a 15% tariff on goods imported into the US from Japan. Japan said Tuesday its trade deal with the US eased policy uncertainty but warned US trade actions could still weigh on its economy.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world.
Brazil has asked the US to spare key sectors from sky-high tariffs that will take effect on Friday. Specifically, it has asked for exemptions for food products and aircraft from Embraer, the world's third-largest planemaker.
More from Reuters:
Embraer, the world's No. 3 planemaker after Airbus and Boeing, is currently the government's top concern, with dozens of pending deliveries to U.S. airlines. It has said a 50% tariff could trigger order cancellations, deferred deliveries and job cuts, hammering its revenue like the pandemic did.
Ports and Airports Minister Silvio Costa Filho said the government would do \\"everything within its power to help Embraer,\\" hinting at potentially providing the planemaker with credit lines.
In addition to aircraft, the U.S. is also a large buyer of Brazilian food products, such as coffee and orange juice.
Brazil is facing 50% tariffs on its exports to the US from Friday. That is among the highest rates Trump has threatened in his new round of sweeping tariffs. Those levies are coming in part because of what Trump alleges is the country's unfair treatment of its former president, who is currently on trial in the country.
Read more here.
US and Chinese negotiators wrapped up two days of talks Tuesday without an immediate announcement of a further tariff delay between the world’s two largest economies as markets watch closely for an offramp to avert additional duties that could be in the offing in about two weeks' time.
\\"We're going to head back to Washington, D.C., and we're going to talk to the president about whether that's something that he wants to do,\\" said Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after the talks concluded in Stockholm, Sweden.
\\"The president can make a final call,\\" he added.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added Tuesday that it was \\"a very fulsome two days\\" of talks and that another 90-day pause remains on the table with the overall tone of talks being \\"very constructive.\\"
Trump himself was asked later in the afternoon about the chances of approval, telling reporters on Air Force One he had just spoken to Bessent and that he would decide after a briefing but that Bessent felt good about Tuesday's meeting.
Read more here.
The US trade deficit in goods narrowed in June to its lowest in nearly two years as imports dropped sharply.
Reuters reports:
This latest data has confirmed economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.
While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday could prompt economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand.
Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses rushed to beat higher prices from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on foreign merchandise, contributing to the first decline in GDP in three years. The Trump administration has announced a number of trade deals which economists said could help to ease uncertainty.
\\"This lends upside risk for our (GDP) forecast,\\" said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. \\"As trade policy uncertainty eases, imports and exports may begin to find their troughs in the second half of the year and become less volatile.\\"
Read more here.
Reuters reports:
The IMF on Tuesday edged its global growth forecast slightly higher for 2025 and 2026 given stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate to 17.3% from 24.4%.
But it warned that the global economy faced ongoing major risks, including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.
\\"The world economy is still hurting, and it's going to continue hurting with tariffs at that level, even though it's not as bad as it could have been,\\" said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Read more here.
India is bracing itself for higher US tariffs, which will likely be between 20-25% on some exports, according to people familiar with the matter. This will be a temporary measure as it holds off on a fresh trade concession ahead of President Trump's August 1 deadline.
Reuters reports:
\\"Talks are progressing well, and a delegation is expected in Delhi by mid-August,” one of the Indian government officials said, adding that President Donald Trump could issue a tariff letter imposing duties of 20 or 25% in a \\"worst-case scenario\\".
\\"However, we assume it would be a temporary measure, considering the five rounds of trade talks that have taken place. A deal will soon be worked out,” the official said.
New Delhi plans to resume broader trade negotiations when a US delegation visits in mid-August, with the goal of finalising a comprehensive bilateral agreement by September or October, one of the Indian officials told Reuters.
Read more here.
The simplest reason, as explained by Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek, is that overall progress in various trade talks suggests that worst case scenarios are being avoided \\"so I think for the most part we're happy.\\"
More from Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul:
Another way to explain the market's relatively subdued response was put forth by Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research. He outlined in a recent note that what is known may be sketchy but it's \\"a bullish outcome v. the range of possibilities, especially the reduction of sectoral tariffs to 15%\\" — adding that this emerging 15% standard is \\"better-than-feared.\\"
He added that markets also appear to have shifted and instead of a previous hope for a dynamic of \\"escalate to deescalate\\" — that is to a say a tense standoff followed by a deal to lower rates — the dynamic now apparently being priced in is one he termed an \\"escalate-to-escalate-less.\\"
Read more here.
A few tariff mentions on earnings releases this morning that have caught my attention:
Procter & Gamble (PG) sees a $1 billion hit over the next 12-months. CEO Jon Moeller tells me he is hiking prices.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) sees an $800 million hit in 2025.
The consumer goods giant, Proctor and Gamble (PG) said on Tuesday that it will see a $1 billion hit to profits in its new fiscal year as a result of tariffs.
Yahoo Finance's executive editor Brian Sozzi looks into the latest earnings report from makers of Tide and Pampers.
P&G offered mixed earnings-per-share guidance as a result, with the bottom end of the range below analyst forecasts.
Shares rose slightly in pre-market trading as its fiscal fourth quarter results beat estimates.
P&G's earnings are being overshadowed by a surprise change atop the C-suite ahead of the results.
It announced late Monday that Shailesh Jejurikar will succeed CEO Jon Moeller on Jan. 1, 2026. Jejurikar is currently the company's COO but has been with P&G since 1989.
Read more here.
The EU and the US are rushing to finish a trade deal before the August 1 deadline. They want to agree on a joint statement that will allow the US to start cutting tariffs on some goods, like cars and car parts.
After that, they will work on a final, legally binding deal. This will need approval from EU countries and maybe the European Parliament. The exact details are still being worked out.
Some European leaders worry the deal might hurt their economies. But both sides are focused on finishing the deal soon to avoid more trade problems.
Bloomberg News reports:
The EU and US will seek to clinch a non-legally binding joint statement by Aug. 1 that will expand on some of the elements negotiated over the weekend, according to a senior EU official. Once the statement is finalized, the US will begin lowering its tariffs on specific sectors, in particular for cars and car parts, which currently face a 27.5% levy.
The two sides will then start work on a legally binding text, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The content and legal form of this document aren’t clear, but it would require the support of at least a qualified majority of EU countries and possibly the European Parliament.
The EU official said that reaching a consensus on the legal text could take a long time; many trade accords require years of negotiations. The EU won’t start implementing the terms it agreed to — such as lowering tariffs on US products — until after this legal text is approved, according to the official.
Read more here.
The US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said \\"more negotiations\\" are needed between the US and India in order to secure a trade deal, Greer's statement was made just days before the Aug. 1 deadline for higher tariffs.
Bloomberg News reports:
Washington needs additional talks to gauge how ambitious India’s government is willing to be to secure a trade agreement, Greer said in an interview on CNBC on Monday. He acknowledged he had previously suggested a deal with New Delhi might be imminent, but highlighted that India’s historic policy of strongly protecting its market meant that reducing barriers would represent a major reversal.
“We continue to speak with our Indian counterparts, we’ve always had very constructive discussions with them,” he said.
Read more here.
Reuters reports:
The sharp increase in US trade tariffs on the European Union will not trigger immediate sovereign rating cuts, but could compound existing pressures, Fitch and other agencies said on Tuesday, while Moody's warned of the effect on exporting firms.
One of Fitch's top sovereign analysts, Ed Parker, said the United States' baseline tariff of 15% on imports from the EU was in line with assumptions the rating agency has had since March and therefore did not materially shift its economic forecasts.
Nevertheless, the 15% rate is a huge increase relative to the 1.2% rate of last year, he said.
\\"We don’t expect the increase in the tariff rate to directly drive EU rating changes on its own, but it could compound existing credit pressures,\\" Parker told Reuters.
Read more here.
Japan said on Tuesday that its trade deal with the US has removed uncertainties on but attention must be given to the risks these policies are putting on the Japanese economy.
Reuters reports:
In the Cabinet Office's monthly economic report for July, the government maintained an overall assessment that the Japanese economy is recovering \\"at a moderate pace,\\" although effects from US tariffs are seen in some areas including cars.
\\"Regarding the tariff measures that had already been implemented, the export prices of automobiles to the US have fallen significantly since April,\\" a Cabinet Office official said at a press briefing.
However, the official said there are no particular signs of change in export volumes, manufacturing price indexes or employment due to the tariffs.
\\"We had been saying that there was a heightened risk of a downturn (in the Japanese economy) due to the impact of US trade policy, but we don't think that is the case at this point,\\" the official said, citing a slew of trade deals the U.S. had concluded with countries.
\\"On the other hand, the risk of a downturn remains, so we need to keep an eye on that.\\"
Read more here.
Royal Philips NV (PHG) stock rose 9% before the bell on Tuesday after it increased its profitability outlook as the impact of the trade war was not as severe as it feared.
Bloomberg News reports:
“It’s a combination of the strong performance plus tariffs that led to a change in guidance,” Chief Executive Officer Roy Jakobs said in an interview.
The Dutch medical-technology firm now expects full-year adjusted operating earnings margin of as much as 11.8%, a 50 basis points increase from its previous outlook, according to a statement Tuesday. Shares in Philips rose 14% in early trading in Amsterdam, the biggest intraday advance in a year.
Read more here.
Stellantis (STLA) shared updated first-half results after giving early numbers last week. The company said that President Trump's tariffs will cost it $1.73 billion in 2025.
Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Pras Subramanian looks into the automakers earnings further and its anticipated tariff hit:
Stellantis now projects new guidance for the second half of the year and expects to see increased net revenues, low-single digit AOI profitability, and improved industrial free cash flow results. Stellantis said this assumes current tariff and trade rules in place as of July 29, 2025.
\\"2025 is turning out to be a tough year, but also one of gradual improvement. Signs of progress are evident when comparing H1 2025 to H2 2024, in the form of improved volumes, net revenues, and AOI, despite intensifying external headwinds,\\" new CEO Antonio Filosa said in a statement.
Read more here.
Germany's Chancellor released a statement saying he's not \\"satisfied\\" with the new EU-US trade deal and expressed concerns about how it'll affect his country's economy.
Reuters reports:
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday he was not satisfied with the result of trade talks with the United States, but \\"more simply wasn't achievable\\" and added the German economy would suffer \\"significant\\" damage due to the agreed tariffs.
The trade deal announced on Sunday imposes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - lower than the 30% once threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump but well above initial hopes of a zero-for-zero agreement.
The rate almost halves the existing tariff rate on Europe's auto sector, a cornerstone of the German economy, from 27.5%, Merz pointed out.
\\"But I am fully aware that the tariffs that remain — particularly the 15% versus 0% for imports into the EU — pose a serious burden for Germany’s export-oriented economy,\\" he told a press conference in Berlin.
\\"I am not satisfied with this result in the sense of: 'This is good.' But I do say that, given the starting point we had with the United States, more simply wasn’t achievable,\\" he said.
Read more here.
The Canadian Press reports:
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday that Canada's negotiations with the United States are in an \\"intense phase\\" after President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the European Union.
\\"There are many aspects to these negotiations,\\" said Carney in Prince County, P.E.I. \\"We are engaged in them but the assurance for Canadian business, for Canadians, is we will only sign a deal that's the right deal, that's a good deal for Canada.\\"
The prime minister's comments come after Trump last week told reporters that Canada wasn't a priority for his administration ahead of his Aug. 1 deadline to make trade deals. [...]
The Canadian economy is significantly impacted by Trump's sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles and will be hit by copper tariffs the president has said will also go in place by the week's end.
Carney said that while there are similarities between the Canada-U.S. negotiations and those involving Europe, there are also many differences.
Read more here.
The recent trade deal announced between the United States and the European Union is raising concerns in different industries about potential costs. The pharmaceutical industry, specifically, is estimated to take on an extra billion dollars based on new data.
Reuters reports:
The European Union's trade deal with the United States could cost the pharmaceutical industry between $13 billion and $19 billion as branded medicines become subject to a tariff of 15%, analysts said on Monday.
The added costs could raise prices for consumers unless pharmaceutical companies take action to mitigate the impact of the tariffs, one of the analysts said.
Pharmaceuticals had historically been exempt from duties. Medicines are the largest European exports to the United States by value and the EU accounts for about 60% of all pharmaceutical imports to the U.S.
Read more here.
Luxury goods companies have been spared the worst case scenario in Sunday's EU-US trade deal. But the worst is not over yet, they still face a balancing act as already weak consumer demand prevents them from raising prices further.
Reuters reports:
Big labels like Chanel and LVMH's (MC.PA, LVMUY) Louis Vuitton and Dior have relied on dramatic price increases in recent years to drive a chunk of their profit growth.
Jacques Roizen, managing director, China, at Digital Luxury Group, said the deal struck by U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods, brings much needed certainty to luxury's key U.S. market.
Yet, \\"brands are treading carefully with further price hikes to avoid alienating younger and occasional shoppers,\\" he said.
Although baseline duties are below a hefty 30% levy that Trump had threatened just a couple of weeks ago, they are a far cry from the zero-for-zero tariff deal Brussels was hoping to clinch.
Read more here.
US and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting this week for at least two days of trade talks as markets continue to focus on relations between the two superpowers and whether stiff tariff rates will be delayed again.
Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports on what to expect:
Trump officials also hope this third gathering of the trade teams in recent months will provide an opportunity to pivot to longer-term issues even as a short-term deadline of Aug. 12 remains front of mind.
The talks are being closely watched for whether they move the countries toward a face-to-face later this year between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping as well as whether negotiators can solidify recent gains, such as a lessening of tensions around semiconductors and rare earth minerals.
\\"We have a good relationship with China,\\" President Trump said Monday just after his team stepped into the talks.
He signaled his focus could be on market access, saying, \\"I'd love to see China open up their country.\\"
Read more here.
Reuters reports:
In the end, Europe found it lacked the leverage to pull Donald Trump's America into a trade pact on its terms and so has signed up to a deal it can just about stomach - albeit one that is clearly skewed in the US favour.
As such, Sunday's agreement on a blanket 15% tariff after a months-long stand-off is a reality check on the aspirations of the 27-country European Union to become an economic power able to stand up to the likes of the United States or China.
The cold shower is all the more bracing given that the EU has long portrayed itself as an export superpower and champion of rules-based commerce for the benefit both of its own soft power and the global economy as a whole.
For sure, the new tariff that will now be applied is a lot more digestible than the 30% \\"reciprocal\\" tariff which Trump threatened to invoke in a few days.
Read more here.