Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq put rally on hold as Wall Street braces for start of data deluge

US stock futures struggled for gains on Tuesday after the Dow’s (^DJI) latest record close, as Wall Street's march back to record territory continued following last week's tech sell-off.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) hovered above the flatline, with fresh all-time highs within reach. Meanwhile, contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also crept into the green, looking to build on back-to-back closing wins.

Investors appear to have regained confidence that tech stocks can maintain their rebound from a recent pullback tied to concerns around software and megacap names. Nvidia (NVDA) chipmaker TSMC's (TSM) sales grew at their fastest rate in months in January, a solid sign of AI demand to rebut bubble fears.

The wait is now on for the release of December retail sales numbers on Tuesday morning, kicking off a flood of data that will provide a health check on the economy. Meanwhile, an ADP weekly employment lays the ground for Wednesday's all-important January jobs report, in high focus following last week's signs of softening in the labor market. The latest Consumer Price Index reading is then due on Friday to give a look at inflation pressures.

Earnings season stays in focus, with Coca-Cola (KO) and Ford (F) both on Tuesday's docket, arriving before the market open and after the close, respectively.

Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) and bitcoin (BTC-USD) remain on investors’ radar, with both assets leaning lower as they try to stabilize after last week’s sharp pullback. Bitcoin in particular has seen heavy volatility, driven by what one analyst called a "crisis of confidence."

The Financial Times reports:

Donald Trump’s administration intends to spare companies including Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) from forthcoming tariffs on chips as they race to build the data centers powering the AI boom.

The commerce department is planning to provide US hyperscalers with tariff carve-outs, which would be tied to investment commitments made by Taiwan-based chip group Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM, 2330.TW), people familiar with the matter said.

The exemption scheme underscores President Trump’s determination to impose tariffs on chips and incentivise US domestic chipmaking, while offering some relief for the companies powering the US’s rapid AI expansion, which rely heavily on imported semiconductors.

Trump has used the threat of tariffs to push for more US manufacturing. But the administration has stopped short of applying broad tariffs on semiconductors from Taiwan, which would rock Big Tech’s AI supply chain.

Read more here.

On Semiconductor (ON) stock skidded in premarket trading on Tuesday, falling by 4%, after the company recorded lower profits in the fourth quarter than a year ago but said it's seeing \\"signs of stabilization\\" in its key markets.

The chipmaker reported earnings per share of $0.45 on revenue of $1.53 billion, missing earnings estimates of $0.59 per share and falling below earnings per share of $0.88 in the same period a year ago, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The company's fourth quarter revenue was in line with estimates.

The company saw annual sales declines across all of its business groups: Power Solutions, Analog & Mixed Signal, and Intelligent Sensing. Intelligent Sensing was the only segment that saw sales grow quarter over quarter, while Power Solutions and Analog & Mixed Signal sales fell 2% and 5%, respectively.

For the first quarter, On Semiconductor expects revenue in the range of $1.43 billion to $1.53 billion, which has a midpoint below the consensus estimate of $1.5 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be between $0.56 and $0.66; Wall Street expects $0.61.

Bloomberg reports:

Companies from game console maker Nintendo Co. (NTDOY) to big PC brands and Apple Inc. (AAPL) suppliers are seeing shares slump on profitability concerns. Memory producers, meanwhile, are soaring to unprecedented heights. Money managers and analysts are now assessing which firms can best navigate the squeeze by locking in supplies, raising product prices or redesigning to use less memory.

A Bloomberg gauge of global consumer electronics makers is down 12% since the end of September while a basket of memory makers including Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS) has surged more than 160%. The question now is how much is priced in.

“What remains underappreciated is the risk around duration — current valuations largely factor in that the disruption will normalize within one to two quarters,” said Vivian Pai, a fund manager at Fidelity International. “We believe industry tightness is likely to persist,” possibly through the rest of the year, she added.

Memory chip shortages and pricing are being mentioned frequently by companies in earnings reports and conference calls. Investors are hearing the alarm bells.

Read more here.

AP Finance reports:

Asian shares were mostly higher Tuesday as Japan’s benchmark topped new highs after a historic election win for the nation’s first female prime minister.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 (^N225) jumped 2.6% to 57,821.58. The index recorded a 3.9% jump to a record Monday, a day after the landslide victory for Sanae Takaichi’s political party in a parliamentary election. Hopes are high Takaichi will push through reforms expected to boost the economy and stock market.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) rose 0.3% to 8,893.60. South Korea's Kospi (^KS11) gained 0.6% to 5,327.80. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (^HSI) surged 1.0% to 27,300.00, while the Shanghai Composite (000888.SS) added 0.2% to 4,130.20.

Read more here.

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