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Oil Steadies as Traders Focus on Supply Risks in Middle East

(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as traders assess the risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East, after the US advised ships to steer clear of Iranian waters.

Brent traded near $69 a barrel, flipping between small gains and losses, following a two-day advance as tensions in the Middle East centered on OPEC member Iran supported a risk premium. West Texas Intermediate traded close to $64. Brent prices rose more than 2% over the prior two sessions.

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The US said on Monday that American-flagged vessels should stay as far as possible from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The warning came despite signs of progress in nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran.

Prices are “struggling to break convincingly” above $70 on “speculation that the risk of higher oil prices — and the impact of rising fuel costs — could ultimately push President Trump toward a negotiated settlement with Iran,” Saxo Bank AS analysts said in a note. “Such an outcome would reduce the risk of conflict and, by extension, the threat of a major supply disruption from the Middle East.”

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical trade artery for Middle East energy shipments that links a slew of producers to global markets, especially in Asia. Tehran has threatened to close the maritime chokepoint during periods of geopolitical tension, though it hasn’t actually followed through.

Crude has risen more than 10% this year as recurrent geopolitical flare-ups eclipsed concerns that a global surplus would lift inventories and hurt prices. A raft of data this week will give traders fresh insights into market conditions, starting with an update from the official US forecaster later Tuesday.

Washington has amassed a powerful military force in the Middle East, even as it also pursues talks with Tehran over its nuclear ambitions, with an initial round held in Oman and more expected. The face-off has spurred concerns that the US may opt to strike targets in Iran, potentially disrupting oil flows.

“Both Washington and Tehran seem to have put a positive spin on the Oman talks, signaling that further discussions will likely be held,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a note.

During a recent visit to the Gulf, “well-placed regional observers suggested that the fear of higher oil prices could ultimately push” Trump to seek a settlement, the RBC analysts added.

Oil, as well as metals, are “substantially underinvested” and have significant upside, according to Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie, a long-standing commodity bull. Crude’s oversupply narrative was overblown, he added.

“If you are having to scrape the data to find evidence of the glut, it is not an oil-supply glut,” Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer, energy pathways, told Bloomberg Television.

--With assistance from John Deane.