Cleveland Fed's Hammack: Interest rates could be on hold 'for quite some time'
Cleveland Federal Reserve president Beth Hammack said Tuesday that she believes monetary policy is in a "good place" to maintain interest rates and that, based on her forecast, the central bank could be on hold "for quite some time."
"I believe monetary policy is in a good place to stay on hold as we assess the incoming data and weigh if, and how, policy may need to adjust further," Hammack said at the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit in Columbus, Ohio.
"Based on my forecast, we could be on hold for quite some time," she said.
Hammack said inflation is still too high and has largely moved sideways for more than two years. She sees a risk that inflation could persist near 3% this year, as it has for the past two years.
Hammack said she needs to see decisive evidence that prices are coming down. And rather than try to "fine-tune" interest rates, Hammack said she'd prefer to "err on the side of patience" as the Fed assesses the impact of three rate cuts from last fall and economic growth.
Right now, she sees the Fed's benchmark policy rate in the vicinity of neutral, meaning it's not meaningfully restraining the economy.
Hammack said she sees the risks of a higher or lower path for the rates as about balanced.
While her outlook does anticipate some easing in inflation over the course of this year, Hammack said she is monitoring the impact of tariffs on prices. She said companies have told her increases in tariff rates have pushed up their costs, and while some businesses have already passed along those costs, others said more price increases are coming. Hammack also pointed to rising prices of electricity and health insurance.
"At this point, it's too soon to say if these broad cost pressures have peaked," she said.
Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related
On the job front, Hammack said the labor market appears to have stabilized.
With the unemployment rate at 4.4%, she noted it remains close to where it was last September and appears stable — that is, job seekers and job vacancies are balanced. She also noted initial claims for unemployment insurance have remained low and acknowledged that while companies' notices of mass layoffs are in line with historical averages, some businesses have announced job cuts.
Hammack said she thinks economic growth will pick up this year thanks to recent rate cuts and fiscal support, which she expects will lead more businesses moving forward with projects and a stronger job market that will push down the unemployment rate over the course of the year.
The Fed held rates steady last month in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% after cutting rates three times last fall.
Jennifer Schonberger is a veteran financial journalist covering markets, the economy, and investing. At Yahoo Finance she covers the Federal Reserve, Congress, the White House, the Treasury, the SEC, the economy, cryptocurrencies, and the intersection of Washington policy with finance. Follow her on X @Jenniferisms and on Instagram.
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